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  • Still on Wike Vs. Lieutenant Yerima

    Still on Wike Vs. Lieutenant Yerima

    • By Mike Kebonkwu

    Nyesom Ezewo Wike  is a news breaker any day for the right and wrong reasons.  He was a two term governor of Rivers State and a former Minister of State for Education under Goodluck Jonathan’s administration and currently, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja since the inception of the present administration.    Nobody is contesting that position or question his authority over the FCT administration.  He is combustible and combative, and does not shy away from any fight. Under his watch, there is a giant developmental stride since taking over the administration of the FCT, and noticeably so. 

    About a fortnight ago, there was a faceoff between the minister and a young military subaltern, Navy Lieutenant, Ahmed Yerima which became trending news and a hype in both social and mainstream media.  Wike had taken on giants in the political turfs and traditional stools in his home state of Rivers and came out without bruises.  That is his antecedent; he respects neither institution nor personality!  My people say that someone that kills with a machete does not allow any one come close to him with a knife. 

    The incident of the faceoff between the Minister and the young subaltern should not be loss on politics, unnecessary legalism or appeal to gerontocratic deification of public office.  Why the fuse after all!  Take a second reflective view of the faceoff, is that the way we want public officials talk to citizens, haul invectives and venom on citizens in brazen display of power?  It could have been any other citizen; every Nigerian deserves to be accorded respect even in the face of infraction of the law until found guilty by the court. 

    Was the young officer was on illegal duty? There are procedures of dealing with it and not to call a commissioned military officer a fool on camera.  Is that how we want public officers to treat Nigerians of lowly birth?  For those who feel that the minister is bold and cannot be intimidated by any power or authority, they missed the point.  As a minister, he is a custodian of public trust and not to engage in brawl.  Seeking unnecessary confrontation with everybody and confronting a military officer is not boldness or mark of heroism.  It has the capacity to provoke unintended consequences more than we may care to know if we are gauging public mood correctly. 

    The Minister of the Federal Capital Territory is the custodian of the assets of the federal government of Nigeria within the FCT administration, an office that nobody is contesting with him.  Being an office created by law, his duties are also expected to be carried out within defined rules and code of etiquette.  A minister should use edifying language and avoid open confrontation in face of perceived wrong and infraction of law. 

    Some retired very senior military officers were quick to comment on the ugly incident as foreboding. Such criticisms did not sit well with some critics.  Let us be clear on one thing, the comments by those generals were measured responses though may not have been elegantly put.  

    Public office is not forum for exhibition of arrogance and self-aggrandizement or an ego trip.  Everybody should be subject to the rule of law, including the king because it is the law that makes him king.  Occupying public office is a privilege with expiry date no matter how long you occupy the office.

    Nobody is questioning or contesting the power of the minister of the federal capital territory and his oversights functions on the land within the federal capital territory.  This also should be carried out within the precinct and domain of law.  Was the young officer disrespectful to the minister in any way, I am afraid, No!   A soldier should be an embodiment of discipline and respect for the rule of law.  A soldier also has the right to legitimately defend himself and place of duty, unless he is found to be on illegal duty.  If the FCT administration feels that a citizen irrespective of social status is in violation of land allocation law, it is the court and judiciary that should interpret that and order for enforcement.  The minister cannot constitute himself into a court and enforcement agent at the same time. 

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    Public office holders should carry out the functions of their office with extreme decorum and respect for rule of law. There should be limit and boundaries for the exercise of power of authority of an office that one should not exceed. We should learn not to cross the line of decency because of ego.  The minister crossed the line of decency to tell a military officer who holds a presidential commission that he is a fool.  In civilized climes, the people would ask that he relinquish his appointment as a minister of the republic.

    Every Nigerian deserves to be treated with some measures of respect and dignity irrespective of his or her professional callings.  A minister should also learn to deploy sublime language and not be seen to bully citizens.   

    Reactions to the incident have been mixed but overall, the balance tilts in favour of the young military officer who displayed unusually dignified poise without being rude in the face of extreme provocation.  One hopes that some lessons may have been learnt. If any person enters the land of the FCT without due process, all that the minister has to do is to take the person or institution to court.  Public office should be properly differentiated from private estate where you reserve the right to act as you like.   

    A soldier should remain what he is, embodiment of discipline and respect for the rule of law and guardian sentinel of our liberty.  A soldier is trained to respect the law and constituted authority but not to submit to harassment and intimidation. Public office is not a traditional stool to talk down on subjects. 

    •Kebonkwu Esq writes via mikekebonkwu@yahoo.com

  • Boko Haram vs ISWAP: Turning insurgent civil war into a Nigerian victory

    Boko Haram vs ISWAP: Turning insurgent civil war into a Nigerian victory

    By Lekan Olayiwola

    More than a decade ago, nothing about the landscape around Lake Chad revealed the violence it would later host. Today, beneath the mirrored beauty lay the perfect sanctuary for insurgents who thrive in fragmented terrain, porous borders, and communities battered by climate and neglect.

    The Lake Chad clash between Boko Haram and ISWAP marked an inflection point, exposing deeper fractures in their operational ecosystems. In a surprise amphibious assault, ISWAP suffered significant losses while Boko Haram retained control of key camps, seizing boats and forcing fighters to retreat into mainland settlements.

    To casual observers, this looks like rival extremist factions spilling blood in a remote warzone. But to anyone who studies armed groups, territoriality, or insurgent ecosystems, it is a strategic inflection point for Nigeria. The Lake Chad fight is civil war within an insurgency, which doesn’t happen often. When they do, governments that understand timing, terrain, and psychology can reshape the battlefield for years.

    The strategic value of the Lake Chad system

    The Lake Chad Basin is important because it is shared by four nations,  a systems knot of water, climate stress, local economies, identity, mobility, and armed activity. Three strategic realities define the region:  First, its fragmented terrain with shifting channels, reed beds, islands, and sandbars form a natural maze, obstacles to a conventional army, but sanctuary to insurgents who move quickly on canoes, hide weapons in reed islands, and melt into seasonal floodplains where armoured vehicles cannot operate.

    Second, border porosity offers strategic depth. Insurgents use the Nigerian side for recruitment and familiarity; the Nigerien, Chadian, and Cameroonian sides for escape routes, medical attention, trade, and coordination. No insurgent group has ever operated purely in one jurisdiction. This makes regional coordination, not just national force – essential.

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    Third, livelihood collapse means human terrain vulnerability.  Fishing, herding, and farming once thrived here. Climate shocks and ecological decline have strangled all three. When civilians lose livelihoods, insurgents offer “taxation” as protection, “courts” as order, and “jobs” as survival. This is why defeating insurgents in this region requires far more than firepower. It requires restoring dignity, not just territory.

     A strategic power shift in the jihadist landscape

    These realities explain why Boko Haram–ISWAP infighting is such a rare strategic gift: it disrupts an ecosystem that insurgents usually control with total confidence. For years, ISWAP presented itself as the “disciplined” faction, more organized, more predictable, more “governance-oriented.” Boko Haram (the JAS faction) was the brutal, charismatic, unpredictable original movement.

    This narrative has flipped. The amphibious assault that devastated ISWAP suggests that Boko Haram retains deeper cultural roots among lakeside communities. Its fighters understand the terrain more intimately and may be embedded in local networks. ISWAP’s command-and-control may be degrading. Revenue streams (fish trade, smuggling corridors) may shift back toward Boko Haram.

    Internal insurgent wars drain manpower, collapse trust, disrupt supply lines, create defectors, expose safe houses, and generate intelligence streams that can be exploited. But only if Nigeria understands the moment. The state must resist the temptation to strike both groups simultaneously right now because doing so prematurely may unify them under a common enemy — the worst possible outcome.

    When elite militaries analyse insurgent fractures, whether in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Sahel, Colombia, or the Philippines, they rely on three principles (i) Exploit, don’t interrupt, enemy infighting; (ii) Strike at moments of maximal weakness, not maximal noise; (iii) Protect civilians as a strategic asset, not just a moral imperative.

     Five strategic pillars

     Intelligence Dominance: see everything, move rarely, strike precisely, exploiting clear enemy weakness. Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) is critical: let the factions wear each other down. Map shifts in territorial control hour by hour. Track defectors, deserters, wounded fighters. Follow how weapons flow after the battle. Every retreating fighter, every abandoned boat, every dispute within a cell is free intelligence. Prefer targeted Precision over Broad Offensives: Conventional ground sweeps across reed islands risk ambush, civilian casualties, terrain loss and international criticism

    Human terrain operations: the people are the decisive ground. Insurgencies die when communities turn their backs on them. Not before. Re-engage Lake Chad communities as partners, not observers. Fishermen, the Buduma people, market women, and displaced families are the real strategic eyes and ears of the basin. They know a lot but trust is the price of admission. Nigeria must deploy community liaison officers, civil-military teams, local peace committees, women’s networks and youth watch groups. Economic Relief as a Security Weapon. Give people a livelihood, and insurgents lose theirs.

    Control the narrative: Even in remote marshes, perception is currency. Nigeria must avoid triumphalism, oversimplification or mis-framing.  Any suggestion Nigeria is “aligned” with either group will hurt regional diplomacy, erode local trust, and potentially unite insurgents. The narrative should centre around protecting civilians, stabilising communities, and dismantling terrorist networks weakened by their own internal war.

    Regional coordination is not optional:  The Lake Chad system gives insurgents four countries’ worth of movement options. Any Nigerian operation that does not anticipate escape routes through Niger, Cameroon, or Chad is incomplete by definition. With Niger’s recent withdrawal from the MNJTF, Nigeria must spearhead a new coordination mechanism, build trust with border commanders, share riverine intelligence, synchronise amphibious patrols and coordinate humanitarian corridors and evacuation routes

    Climate security is counterinsurgency: Lake Chad’s ecological decline is not background noise, but soundtrack of the conflict. As fish die, insurgent taxes increase. As water recedes, grazing shrinks. As land disappears, migration surges. As livelihoods collapse, insurgent recruitment rises. Nigeria must treat climate adaptation not as development policy but as strategic security infrastructure

     Dignity as doctrine

    Boko Haram is emboldened but also exposed; ISWAP is weakened but not broken. The lake is entering a new seasonal phase that will either restrict or facilitate movement. Civilians are both terrified and politically pivotal.

     All strategy collapses when military pressure crushes civilian dignity. Nigeria must avoid this. The ethical framework is clear: protect civilians before operations, not after; provide alternatives before cracking down, not after; share information with communities before demanding cooperation; respect local identities (especially the Buduma) and keep humanitarian actors close, not at arm’s length. Insurgencies recruit from humiliation. Counterinsurgency succeeds through dignity.

    If Nigeria uses this moment to strike recklessly, it will inherit a more united, more embittered insurgency. This is the kind of moment military strategists revisit years later; the moment where patience, intelligence, legitimacy, and precision aligned to reshape a conflict.

    •Olayiwola is a peace & conflict researcher/policy analyst. He can be reached via lekanolayiwola@gmail.com

  • When opposition is jinxed

    When opposition is jinxed

    Much unlike in the golden years of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, who was fondly called ‘Teacher,’ Tanzania now runs a tainted democracy. Criticisms of the country’s recent general election centred on the restriction of opposition players from participating. President Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first female leader of the East African nation, won a landslide victory in the October 29 poll that was marred by violent protests, an internet shutdown and a brutal clampdown on protesters.

    President Hassan was declared winner with nearly 98 percent of the votes to secure a second term. In her victory speech, she said the election was “free and democratic” and accused protesters of being “unpatriotic.” Opposition parties, however, rejected the results, calling the vote a mockery of democracy because serious challengers of Hassan were either in prison or barred from running. International observers voiced concern over lack of transparency and widespread turmoil that reportedly left hundreds of people dead and many injured. Internet shutdown made it difficult to verify the toll amid exertions by government to play down the scale of the violence, with the authorities extending a curfew slammed into place to quell the unrest.

    Hassan’s ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), and its predecessor Tanganyika African National Union (TANU), have dominated Tanzanian politics and have never lost election since Independence in 1961. Declaring her winner of the recent presidential vote, Tanzania’s electoral commission said she polled 97.66 percent of total votes cast in an election with turnout nearing 87 percent of the country’s 37.6million registered voters.

    Madame president first took power in 2021 following the sudden death of her predecessor, John Magufuli. Appearing at an event at the administrative capital, Dodoma, to receive her certificate of return from electoral authorities, she said Tanzanians voted overwhelmingly for female leadership and now that the election was over, “it’s time to unite our country and not destroy what we’ve built over more than six decades.” She signalled a tough line on security, though, saying: “We will take all actions and involve all security agencies to ensure the country is peaceful.”

    But a major opposition party, Chadema, which was barred from contesting the poll, slammed Hassan’s victory as a charade. “We are calling for intervention by a credible body to oversee another fresh election,” the spokesperson told a media outlet. Reports said there were two serious opposition contenders but one was held on treason charges, which he denied, while the other was excluded from the vote on legal technicalities. Sixteen fringe parties were allowed to run, but none of them historically had significant public support.

    The presidential and parliamentary elections set off days of violent protests as demonstrators accused Hassan’s government of suppressing opposition. Chadema’s spokesperson said some 700 people were killed in clashes with security forces, and there was no way of independently verifying the claim because of nationwide Internet shutdown. But the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) cited diplomatic sources in Tanzania saying there was credible evidence that at least 500 people had died. Despite heavy security presence, election day tailspinned into chaos with demonstrators tearing down banners of government officials and setting fire to government buildings, and police firing tear gas and gunshots according to reports quoting eyewitnesses. Internet connectivity watchdogs said access to social media and mobile internet was restricted across several cities during and after the vote. Tanzanian foreign minister, however, downplayed the violence as “few isolated pockets of incidents here and there,” adding that “security forces acted very swiftly and decisively to address the situation.”

    During her speech in Dodoma, Hassan said the protesters by their actions were neither responsible nor patriotic. “When it comes to the security of Tanzania, there is no debate – we must use all available security avenues to ensure the country remains safe,” she stated. Rights groups accused her of overseeing a “wave of terror” in the country before the vote, including a string of high-profile abductions that escalated in the final days leading up to the poll. But the government rejected criticisms of its human rights record.

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    Bottomline is that Tanzania became an object of global infamy. Spokesman to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement that he was “deeply concerned” about the situation in Tanzania, “including reports of deaths and injuries during the demonstrations.” African Union chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf congratulated Hassan in a statement on X, but also said he deeply regretted the loss of human life in electoral violence and extended sincere condolences to families of the victims. Alex Vines, Africa director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said there had been “a campaign of harassment and intimidation” towards the opposition in Tanzania. “It clearly is not a credible election. This is a very serious crackdown. There are many young Tanzanians, who think they have been left behind,” he argued in a conversation with Al Jazeera from London.

    Tanzanian opposition won the sympathy of international interests because they were seen to be repressed by the CCM government of President Hassan. Like CCM in Tanzania, the Nigerian political space is currently dominated by the All Progressives Congress (APC). But that isn’t because Nigerian opposition is repressed, rather it is mortally wounded and disabled by self-inflicted factional crises. Genuine democracy everywhere thrives on virile opposition, and it would be in the interest of Nigerian democracy to have a formidable opposition that could keep the ruling party on its toes. But opposition in the country is prostrate because members are not minded to pull together in the greater interest of democracy and renounce narrow interests informed by their personal ambitions. That is what hobbles the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the party can’t hope for help from without if members would not grow up and put their house in order.

    PDP national headquarters in Abuja came under lock by security personnel last week because factions unsettled public peace with their scheduling of rival meetings by which they hoped to gain control of the secretariat. The rival plans expectedly threw the party base into chaos, which the police had to step in to contain. But new factional party chairman, Kabiru Turaki, played the victim: he invited United States President Donald Trump  to save Nigerian democracy that he said was under threat from anti-democratic elements. Besides Trump, he urged other advanced democracies to intervene in safeguarding Nigeria’s democratic system. “I want to call on President Trump… What is at stake is not just genocide against Christians, he should come and save democracy in Nigeria. Democracy is under threat. I am also calling on all other developed nations, all advanced democracies, come and save Nigeria, come and save democracy,” Turaki said.

    The embattled factional party chair was obviously referencing a recent threat by Trump that the American military might be ordered to invade Nigeria and strike against radical Islamic terrorists responsible for alleged attacks on Christians if the Nigerian government wouldn’t act. In a statement, the U.S. leader claimed Christianity in Nigeria faced existential threat because radical Islamists were killing thousands of the country’s Christian population. He, thus, designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” for allegedly violating religious freedom.

    It was bad enough that Turaki adopted the American claim without interrogation or insider-knowledge qualification. His faction of the PDP is in a tussle for the party’s soul with another faction aligned with Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike and led by factional scribe, Samuel Anyanwu. It would be more honest to say big egos were under threat, not democracy per se. Turaki knew this too well and willfully sold the international community a red herring about Nigerian democracy being under threat. That was not helpful – neither for Nigerian democracy nor the electorate. What the country needs is for opposition players to get their acts together and pose a viable challenge to the ruling party for voters’ sake. 

    •Please join me on kayodeidowu.blogspot.be for conversation.

  • Illusion of Russian mercenaries-Lessons for Nigeria and Africa

    Illusion of Russian mercenaries-Lessons for Nigeria and Africa

    • By Oumarou Sanou

    Bamako is burning—again, and the African Union, the regional body tasked with promoting peace and security, is panicking. The capital of Mali, once a proud symbol of West African resilience, now teeters on the brink of collapse, not from foreign invasion but from jihadists who have outlasted coups, crushed alliances, and exposed the hollowness of the “sovereign security” promised by military juntas and their Russian backers. What began as a bold pledge to “restore stability and reclaim dignity” has descended into chaos, bloodshed, racism, and betrayal—the tragic proof that mercenaries cannot buy peace and juntas cannot govern by force. The Sahel’s descent is not just Mali’s tragedy—it is a warning to Nigeria and the entire region.

    When Mali’s coup leaders expelled French and UN forces and turned to Russia’s Wagner Group in 2021, they sold their citizens a dangerous illusion: that imported soldiers of fortune would succeed where legitimate institutions had failed. Three years later, the results are catastrophic. Jihadist groups are advancing toward Bamako, civilians are dying in record numbers, and the mercenaries once paraded as “liberators” have turned Mali’s soil into a graveyard of false hope.

    According to conflict monitors, nearly 3,000 civilians have been killed since Wagner’s arrival—many at the hands of their supposed protectors. Entire communities have been wiped out, markets torched, and villages erased under the pretext of “counterterrorism operations.”

    The recently leaked documentary March on Azawad—a chilling self-portrait of Russian mercenaries—reveals the futility and racism embedded in their operations. Wagner veterans, now safely back in Russia, describe Malian soldiers as “cowards” and “thieves,” mocking the very people they were paid to defend. Their disdain echoes the systemic racism of Russian society, where ethnic minorities are treated as expendable cannon fodder. These mercenaries, steeped in bigotry and violence, brought to Africa not solidarity, but supremacy — the same dehumanising ideology that drives their atrocities in Ukraine, Libya, and now the Sahel.

    The brutality Wagner displays toward African civilians is not aberrational—it is a feature, not a bug. These mercenaries carry to Africa the same racism they practice at home against ethnic minorities in Russia’s own territories. In Chechnya, Dagestan, and other non-Russian regions, minorities face systemic discrimination, violence, and marginalisation. When these fighters arrive in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, they bring that contempt with them.

    Their crimes are well-documented. In Moura, central Mali, at least 500 civilians were massacred in a single operation in March 2022. Men were executed, women assaulted, and children mutilated—atrocities gleefully shared in private Wagner Telegram channels like “White Uncles in Africa +18”, where mercenaries celebrated their brutality with the depraved language of white supremacy. To them, African civilians and terrorists were indistinguishable—both expendable, both “sand people.” This is not counterterrorism. It is a campaign of dehumanisation.

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    Behind Wagner’s bloody record lies a simple motive: profit. The mercenaries did not come for Pan-African solidarity; they came for gold. Mali pays Wagner not only in cash but in mineral concessions—trading sovereignty for survival. One mercenary admits in the documentary that recovering and seizing gold mines was part of their operational “successes.” They looted everything: motorcycles, trucks, excavation equipment. Mali’s resources now flow to Moscow, while its people bleed in silence.

    What began as a “security partnership” quickly degenerated into an extractive occupation. Wagner’s recklessness and racial contempt alienated communities, fractured the Malian army, and emboldened jihadists. The July 2024 defeat at Tinzawaten, where 84 Russian mercenaries died alongside dozens of Malian troops, was not an exception—it was the predictable outcome of arrogance and incompetence. The withdrawal of Wagner and its rebranding as “Africa Corps” in 2025 has done little to stem the tide. Today, Bamako stands at the edge of jihadist capture.

    The implications for West Africa—and especially Nigeria—are profound. Insecurity in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger does not remain contained; it metastasises. Jihadist groups like JNIM and ISGS have expanded their operations southward, exploiting porous borders, ungoverned spaces, and weak regional coordination. Refugees fleeing the Sahel are already straining Nigeria’s northern communities, while arms trafficking and extremist propaganda infiltrate the hinterland and towns. The possible fall of Bamako would open another corridor of terror stretching from the Maghreb to the Gulf of Guinea—an arc of instability that could engulf the entire sub region. This underscores the need for robust international collaboration in addressing the crisis.

    Nigeria must heed this warning with urgency and clarity.

    Unlike Mali’s junta, Nigeria has—so far—resisted the temptation of outsourcing its sovereignty to foreign mercenaries. This path has been slow, imperfect, and riddled with challenges, but it is fundamentally different. They have so far relied on their national forces, accountable—however imperfectly—to the constitution, and also engage regional structures such as ECOWAS and the Multinational Joint Task Force, a collaborative security initiative involving several African countries. Nigeria collaborate internationally while preserving national agency. This is the only sustainable route to lasting peace.

    But Nigeria must not grow complacent. Their military architecture still faces serious weaknesses—underfunding, corruption, rights abuses, and inadequate intelligence coordination. Reform is not optional; it is urgent. The country needs a people-centred security strategy built on trust, legitimacy, and professionalism. That means investing in their troops, strengthening community-based intelligence, enhancing regional cooperation, and tackling the root causes that jihadists exploit: poverty, exclusion, and bad governance.

    For the rest of Africa, the lesson from the Sahel is brutally clear: mercenaries do not save nations—they strip them bare. Authoritarian juntas that cloak repression in “sovereignty” only invite further collapse. Imported guns or imperial contracts cannot secure Africa’s stability. It must be built through accountable institutions, regional solidarity, and the courage to confront our internal failings head-on.

    Mali’s tragedy is a mirror. It shows what happens when desperation replaces strategy, and when sovereignty becomes a slogan for repression. The fall of Bamako—if it happens—will not just be Mali’s failure; it will be a continental warning. Nigeria must learn, act, and lead—because in today’s Sahel, those who chase shortcuts to security end up losing both peace and power.

    •Sanou is a social critic, Pan-African observer and researcher focusing on governance, security, and political transitions in the Sahel. He writes via sanououmarou386@gmail.com

  • 2025 Oil bid round: New vista for energy transformation

    2025 Oil bid round: New vista for energy transformation

    • By Akpandem James

    Nigeria appears set for another decisive round of oil field development, coming just a year after a successful bid cycle that delivered new oil wells and expanded the nation’s crude oil production capacity. Signalling a shift toward structured and predictable upstream governance, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) recently announced that licensing rounds will henceforth be a yearly affair, a deliberate strategy by the Gbenga Komolafe-led management to deepen investor confidence and encourage long-term capital commitments in the upstream sector. The 2025 licensing round is emerging as one of the most strategically significant bid rounds since the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.

    Set to formally open on December 1, the 2025 bid round aims to prioritise natural gas alongside crude oil as part of Nigeria’s commitment to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The focus of the exercise is on discovered and undeveloped fields, especially fallow assets. The narrative emphasis is on transparency, regulatory stability, investor confidence and the development of both oil and gas resources to increase production capacity. Two main reasons drive the focus of the 2025 bid round: optimising Nigeria’s existing hydrocarbon resources rather than just exploring new opportunities and supporting energy transition and domestic energy needs.

    At the centre of the upcoming round is the commitment to operationalising the PIA’s “drill or drop” provision, which requires operators to develop awarded discoveries within a set timeframe or relinquish them to the state. In line with this, the commission embarked on recovering idle assets, which it has prepared for reallocation. The recovered and under-utilised assets, complemented by newly delineated blocks, collectively form the drawing pool for the proposed 2025 bid round. Estimates from industry sources suggest that about 24 blocks, combining newly identified acreage and recovered fallow assets, may be included, spanning onshore, shallow-water and deep offshore terrains. This policy, strengthened under Section 94 of the 2021 Act, aims to activate and free up fallow assets, encouraging new investments by ensuring unproductive blocks are either developed or returned.

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    Section 94(4) of the PIA requires the holder of a marginal field (or discovery) to present a field development plan within three years. Section 94(4)(b) gives the operator the option, with NUPRC’s consent, to farm-out the discovery (bring in a partner), subject to conditions which include presenting a development plan. Section 94(5) defines the timeframe for submitting the development plan. Sections 94(6), (7) and (8) deal with failure to comply if no valid development plan is submitted, or other conditions are not met. Operators either develop the field (drill) or relinquish their rights (drop) if they remain inactive beyond the set period.

    The fully digitized 2024 bid round earned strong industry praise for its transparency and efficiency. Building on that, the 2025 round is set to enhance the process through a real-time, non-discriminatory digital system that enables applicants to track their status at every stage. The bid framework follows a rigorous multi-tiered structure: first, a pre-qualification stage that assesses technical capacity, financial stability and legal compliance; second, an open technical evaluation for all qualified applicants, with no restrictions on block selections; and finally, a commercial bid stage conducted on an encrypted digital platform and livestreamed for transparency. These steps ensure that only competent bidders advance, reflecting the same standards established in the 2024 round and mandated by the PIA and regulatory guidelines.

    The procedure marks a significant change from past experiences, following the upstream regulator’s initiatives under the PIA. Hitherto, bid rounds were plagued by opacity, trailed by protests and assailed by petitions. It came once in a long while in staccato patterns, but the current posture is fashioned to provide regulatory stability and boost investment confidence. It aligns with the PIA, which is part of a broader strategy to attract more upstream investments and increase production. The entire process is tailored to drive infrastructure development, increase production levels and enhance economic gains for shared prosperity.

    Although the commission has indicated that a formal list of blocks and guidelines will be released before the portal opens on December 1, public data, especially the June 2025 NUPRC Concession Situation Report, offers strong indications of which blocks are likely to be offered and the types of companies expected to participate. Based on the report, several Oil Mining Licenses (OMLs) and Petroleum Prospecting Licenses (PPLs) align closely with the regulator’s priority criteria. Among these are OML 24, OML 29, OML 33, OML 40, OML 42, OML 49, OML 53 and OML 67, along with associated PPLs. These assets represent areas of discovery that have remained underdeveloped or where previous awardees did not effectively commercialise.

    Most of these blocks are located in the onshore and shallow-water Niger Delta, an area known for challenging operating conditions and inconsistent commercial activity, which has led to many stalled developments. Also likely are blocks in the continental shelf and deep offshore zones, where technical discoveries exist but remain under-utilised due to capital constraints or stalled development plans. The inclusion of both mature and frontier terrains aligns with NUPRC’s goal to diversify the opportunity set and stimulate production from assets with shorter development cycles.

    Alongside the identification of block candidates, the landscape of likely bid participants has become clearer. Expected bidders fall into three broad groups: international majors and large independents, Nigerian upstream independents and new entrants or consortiums with technical or financial backing.

    Among the international oil companies (IOCs), TotalEnergies has expressed strong interest in the bid round. The company has repeatedly commended the upstream regulator for its transparent and digitized licensing process, aligning with its deep-water and gas strategy in Nigeria. Other oil majors, such as Shell, Eni and Chevron, have a history of participating in Nigerian bid rounds and remain engaged in the upstream sector. However, their participation in 2025 will likely depend on whether the block offerings align with their evolving strategic focus, which increasingly prioritises gas, high-margin deep-water assets and de-risked developments over greenfield exploration.

    The second prominent group comprises Nigerian and regional private operators, who have often played a pivotal role in driving the development of marginal and medium-sized fields. Companies such as Seplat Energy, Ardova, First E&P and Famfa Oil are strong potential bidders, given their existing portfolios and history of acquiring and developing assets relinquished by the oil majors. The Concession Situation Report also lists numerous smaller indigenous companies operating PPLs and marginal field assets. These firms may seek to expand their footprints or bid through joint ventures with technical and financial partners. For many of these indigenous players, the attraction lies in the availability of discovered resources with shorter development horizons, which aligns with their operating models and capital access patterns.

    The third category includes new entrants and service-company-backed consortiums, typically structured to leverage a combination of technical expertise and financial capacity. In previous licensing rounds, such consortiums have partnered with Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors, Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) providers and energy-focused investment funds. This pattern is likely to continue, especially because NUPRC has made rapid development a central objective. Bidders who can demonstrate credible field development plans, integration with midstream infrastructure and access to FPSOs, modular production units and early-production facilities are likely to have a competitive edge.

    Investor confidence appears to have surged due to positive signals from the regulator and the federal government. There are indications that the 2025 round will adhere strictly to the PIA, with complete digitization of the bid process, transparent evaluation criteria and stable regulatory conditions. Political support, combined with the promise of annual licensing rounds, helps create predictability, which is crucial for both domestic and international investors assessing long-term commitments.

    However, to achieve improved infrastructure development and support a rise in production, certain conditions must be considered. There is a need for more FPSO units and other infrastructure, a factor the industry regulator has underscored at every point, highlighting a commitment to not just exploration but also the development of near-production assets. The NUPRC has recognised funding challenges and is collaborating with relevant stakeholders to address these financing issues and improve production capacity.

    Recently, financial institutions, including global investment banks, have shown interest in supporting upstream transactions, given Nigeria’s renewed push to increase production. The 2025 round promotes collaboration between investors and financial institutions to address financing challenges. It is so designed under the Petroleum Industry Act framework and it benefits from political support, including promises from legislative committees to maintain sector stability and investor confidence.

    • Akpandem James, a Fellow of the Nigerian Guild of Editors, lives in Abuja.

  • Detty December: A new path for national branding

    Detty December: A new path for national branding

    • By Solomon Ogo-Oluwa Oyerinde

    Anyone who thinks December in Nigeria is just about jollof rice, suya, and recycled holiday greetings hasn’t been paying attention. Every year, Nigerians quietly transform the last month of the year into something extraordinary. This phenomenon is known as Detty December.

    For decades, Nigeria’s global image was shaped by negative headlines, but Afrobeats, Nollywood, and social media have rewritten the narrative. Nigerians are showing the world that we know how to celebrate, create, and innovate at a world-class level. Detty December is no longer just a holiday season. It is a cultural and economic powerhouse, capable of putting Nigeria on the global stage.

    I attended the Lagos Detty December party hosted by Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu. I brought along friends from abroad, who had never experienced Nigeria like this. One of them looked around at the lights, music, and vibrant crowds and asked how an entire city could be in celebration mode every single night. In their country, December is quiet. In Lagos, it is alive.

    One unforgettable moment was at a beach house in Ilashe. A group of Canadian tourists joined us on a boat ride. When we arrived, one of them froze, staring at the ocean, palm trees, and poolside music. She later posted a video calling it the best day of her year. That one afternoon completely reshaped her perception of Nigeria.

    Another highlight came from a lively street scene. Suya vendors and night market stalls were thriving. One vendor told me that his ten days of sales in December made more than he earns in two months. At a Victoria Island wedding, guests who flew in from the UK ended up spending more on the after-party than on their flights. Tourists dancing to Kese in packed clubs shared clips online that went viral almost immediately.

    Real-life example of Detty December’s economic power:

    A friend of mine in Ikoyi decided to turn his apartment into a short-let while traveling home to Omu-Aran in Kwara State for the holidays. By the end of December, after taxes, he had earned over 15 million naira. This is a clear example of how ordinary Nigerians are turning Detty December into a financial opportunity.

    The economic impact is tangible. Lagos alone generated tens of billions of naira last year from concerts, short-let apartments, nightclubs, and events. Investors are taking notice, but the full potential is untapped. With strategic support, Detty December could easily become a $1 billion national festival, creating jobs, boosting tourism, and improving Nigeria’s global image.

    Here is how the Presidency could unlock this potential:

    1. Official recognition and national branding. Elevate Detty December as a cultural festival with global marketing to attract diaspora and international tourists.

    2. Tourism incentives and infrastructure support. Tax breaks for hotels and short-lets, improved roads, and better airport handling would make December a seamless experience.

    Read Also: Tinubu: I’m determined to eliminate bandits, terrorists in North

    3. Support for Nigerian creativity. From music to fashion, supporting Afrobeat concerts, street carnivals, and fashion shows increases spending and international partnerships.

    4. Expansion beyond Lagos. Abuja, Port Harcourt, Enugu, and other cities can replicate the Lagos model to scale the economic impact nationwide.

    Every December, tourists arrive expecting only Lagos Island but discover a country alive with joy, fashion, food, and culture. Social media amplifies this energy globally. Videos of street performances, dance challenges, and food experiences show the world Nigeria at its best.

    The people have done the heavy lifting. They created the energy, the excitement, and the international attention. All that is missing is strategic presidential support: recognition, infrastructure, promotion, and incentives. By doing this, Nigeria can turn a popular cultural celebration into a $1 billion economic and branding success story.

    Detty December is loud, colorful, and joyous, but it is also proof of Nigeria’s creative power, economic potential, and global relevance. From Victoria Island to Ajah, from street corners to beach houses, the festival demonstrates what Nigerians can achieve when culture, creativity, and ambition come together.

    The world is watching. This time, they are impressed. The Presidency has an opportunity to take notice and take Nigeria to the next level.

    •Oyerinde, a public affairs analyst, wrote from Lagos.

  • Transforming Nigeria’s economy: Policies, progress and continuity

    Transforming Nigeria’s economy: Policies, progress and continuity

    Today’s article is an adaptation of the keynote speech this columnist delivered at the Southwest Integrity Summit 2025 held in Osogbo, on 17 November. The summit was convened by the National Chairman of the Integrity Group of Nigeria (The Renewed Hope Ambassadors), Dr. Oke Idawene, and hosted by the Osun State branch of the group headed by the state Chairman, Comrade Salam Mustapha Olamilekan.

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, has demonstrated that, however much a person may have noble and workable economic ideas, they must first acquire the requisite political power in order to be able to put into practice those great ideas. So, he made huge intellectual, psychological, emotional, physical, social and material investments into seeking presidential power. Once he got it through pragmatic patience and strategic sacrifice, the President acquired the ability to institute economic policies he believed could enhance the welfare of Nigerians.

    As is now common knowledge, then-presidential candidate Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu promised to remove fuel subsidy; and he kept that promise right from his inaugural address as president on 29 May, 2023. The President also embarked on the floating of the naira and the unification of the multiple exchange rate regime. These policies led to a fall in the value of the naira and high inflation.

    Notwithstanding, some economists believed that the policies were sound, and would eventually stabilise and generate growth in the economy. However, critics condemned the President for being hasty in the introduction of the policies. This argument was countered by those who thought that delaying the implementation of the policies would have given the fuel subsidy cabal and exchange rate racketeers the opportunity to re-strategise and mobilise against the corrective economic policies to protect their obscene privileges.

    President Tinubu acknowledged the fact that the economic policies had come with some unintended pains. He also assured Nigerians that those pains were like the pangs of childbirth which are normally followed by pleasure after safe delivery. The President therefore used every opportunity he got to plead with the citizens to be patient and to show understanding.

    To ease the pains, the government introduced Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses; CNG vehicle charging centres; the monthly award to federal civil servants of thirty-five thousand naira for six months; the upward review of the minimum wage of federal workers from N30,000 to N70,000; the increase in the salary of judges; the approval and signing into law of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) to ensure that nobody who desired to acquire tertiary education was prevented from fulfilling the noble dream due to lack of funds; and the introduction of the Tertiary Institution Staff Support Fund (TISSF), a loan scheme under which a beneficiary could get up to ten million naira, subject to the ability to repay.

    Moreover, in line with the proverbial principle that when the issue of food has been sorted out, poverty abates (“Tí oúnje bá kúrò nínú ìsé, ìsé bùse.”), the government put in place a number of policies. These include the temporary removal of tariffs on grains and essential food items; enhancing irrigation facilities and improving water resource management; increasing agricultural mechanisation; enhancing access to credit for farmers through the Bank of Agriculture; establishment of the National Commodity Board; addressing the challenge of insecurity through the establishment of Forest Guards; introduction of dry season farming; and the creation of the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development, among other measures.

    Read Also: Tinubu: I’m determined to eliminate bandits, terrorists in North

    In addition, undergirded by the principle that “Health is wealth,” the government removed tariffs on some imported pharmaceutical products to halt the worrisome rise in the cost of medicines. The government also embarked on the direct importation of essential medicines to ensure their availability and affordability. Furthermore, cancer centres were established in the six geo-political zones to reduce the need for medical tourism and relieve the pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves. 

    Meanwhile, power supply had become a huge challenge to the nation’s economic well-being. The unstable supply or very high cost of electricity had aggravated inflation, and made goods produced in Nigeria more costly than the same kind of goods imported from abroad. To address this and related problems, on 8 June 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signed the Electricity Bill 2023 into law as Electricity Act, 2023.

    In a June 2023 article titled “Commentaries on the Electricity Act, 2023,” Ayo Salami, Partner & Head, Energy and Natural Resources Group, at KPMG in Nigeria, noted: “Section 63(2)(b) allows persons to operate an undertaking for generation, transmission, distribution, supply, and sale of electricity within a State, pursuant to the law enacted by the House of Assembly of the relevant State …” This means that a state, a group of private investors or individuals can participate in the generation, transmission, distribution, supply and sale of electricity and other renewable forms of energy in this country today.

    In fact, in a 16 October, 2024 Nigerian Tribune report titled “I generate about 15% of Nigeria’s electricity – Davido’s father, Deji Adeleke,” Adam Mosadioluwa stated: “Adedeji Adeleke, the father of award-winning Nigerian artiste, Davido, has revealed that his company, Pacific Energy, generates about 15% of Nigeria’s electricity. … The billionaire businessman highlighted his investments in the nation’s power sector, particularly focusing on his thermal power plant, which is expected to become fully operational by January 2025.”

    So, the next time you find a post on social media claiming cynically that President Tinubu said that if he does not provide stable electricity in Nigeria, the electorate should not vote for him for a second term in office, let the critics know that, in fact, rather than merely providing Nigerians with fish, the President has, as the proverb goes, taught them how to fish. As such, if the stakeholders do not seize the opportunity for electricity sufficiency provided through the liberalisation of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), that would be their fault, because as our elders say, “Alágemo ti bímo rè tán, àìmòójó dowó rè.” (‘The chameleon has already performed its duty of giving birth to and enabling its child; if the child does not know how to dance, that’s the child’s fault.’)

    Moreover, with respect to the “Crude-for-Naira Deal”, a piece in The Nation newspaper of 6 October, 2025 reported the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, as stating: “The sale of crude oil and refined products in Naira has officially begun as directed by the Federal Executive Council. This initiative marks a bold step towards economic sustainability and currency stability.”

    A 10 April, 2025 report in The Nation newspaper also quoted the Federal Ministry of Finance as stating: “The Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira initiative is not a temporary or time-bound intervention, but a key policy directive designed to support sustainable local refining, bolster energy security, and reduce reliance on foreign exchange in the domestic petroleum market.”

    With respect to blocking revenue leakages in the mining sector, President Tinubu has been reported to have directed that all new mining licences must have local value. That is, licences would be issued only to those who give a commitment to process, locally, minerals they extract in Nigeria, as a means of boosting local employment opportunities, rather than export them in raw form.

    This range of policies and many related ones have cumulatively had a positive impact on the Nigerian economy. This has earned positive ratings by various international institutions, resulting in increased confidence in the Nigerian economy. In an 18 November, 2025 story in The Nation, the Controller-General of Customs, Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, was reported to have said: “In the first half of 2025, Nigeria’s trade with other African countries reached N4.82 trillion – an increase of more than N600 billion compared with the previous year.”

    Moreover, internally, state governments have been receiving increased allocations from the federation account and have been able to pay their employees more easily. Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE), commenting on the Nigerian economy on 21 November, 2025 in a TVC news interview said: “We’re heading in the right direction.” He noted that there was a stable and even marginal rise in exchange rate, steady decline in inflation, and robust external reserve (which according to the Central Bank, has risen to $46.7 billion as at 14 November, 2025).

    Dr. Yusuf further observed that the impact of these achievements is already visible in the drop in the prices of consumer goods. For example, a 50kg of rice which was around N120,000 last year, has fallen to around N58,000 this week. He also cited the price of a street motorcycle (Okada) which was around N1,200,000 last year, but is around N800,000 now. Checks with sellers of food items and motorcycles confirm a remarkable reduction in prices. The reduction in the prices of medicines has also been confirmed.

    To sustain the positive economic trend the nation is experiencing now, it is important to implement robustly the 11 July, 2024 Supreme Court landmark judgement affirming the autonomy of Nigeria’s 774 Local Government Councils. This would enhance the optimal participation of a significant proportion of Nigerians living at the grassroots level in the economic life of the nation and consolidate the efforts of the federal government. It would also minimise the alienation and disengagement of a large section of the citizens from the government. This alienation has made it attractive for them to exchange their votes for a piece of gala, a can of malt and N500 or N1,000.

    A more intense engagement of the youth in the economic progammes to the government would also be immensely invaluable in ensuring the continuity of the well-directed policies. The youth are energetic, resourceful and exceptionally courageous. They therefore constitute invaluable components of any enterprise. It is for this reason that the former Lagos State Governor and former Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), asked recently in Lagos, why our youth have not been sufficiently oriented towards participation in the affairs of the society at large, such that there would be students wings of political parties even in our universities. These exist in the Botswana political culture.

    Meanwhile, even some of the traditional critics of President Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are acknowledging the improving economic situation of the country, as the Renewed Hope Agenda is steadily progressing towards full actualisation. It is this happy trend that the factional National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Kabiru Tanimu Turaki (SAN), a former Minister of Special Duties, set out to disrupt when he invited United States President Donald Trump and other leaders to invade Nigeria, to help PDP to resolve its internal crises and ‘save democracy’.

  • Yusuf Tuggar: The quiet architect of a bolder Nigeria

    Yusuf Tuggar: The quiet architect of a bolder Nigeria

    • By David Adeoye

    In an era when diplomacy is too often reduced to soundbites and outrage, Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, has chosen a different path: calm, factual, and unflinchingly principled.

    The result is one of the most effective tenures the Ministry has seen in years, capped by his well-deserved recognition as joint winner of The Street Journal’s “Super Ministers of the Year” award alongside distinguished colleagues.

    Tuggar did not campaign for applause. He simply delivered.

    When the United States designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” over alleged religious persecution, many expected a defensive outburst.

    Instead, Tuggar appeared on Piers Morgan Uncensored and delivered a masterclass in composure. Armed with data and context, he dismantled the one-sided narrative that paints Nigeria’s security crisis as state-sponsored persecution of Christians.

    “Cool as a cucumber,” he told Morgan with a smile, correcting the host’s slip about “Chibok boys” and insisting the full interview be aired unedited.

    Nigeria’s truth, he said, “must not be distorted to fit external biases.” The exchange went viral, not because of shouting, but because of clarity. In an age of polarisation, Tuggar showed that facts, delivered calmly, can cut through noise more effectively than fury.

    That same clarity defines his broader vision.

    Tuggar has translated President Bola Tinubu’s 4D foreign policy (Democracy, Development, Demography, and Diaspora) into tangible global wins. Nigeria is now a BRICS partner nation.

    Read Also: Tinubu: I’m determined to eliminate bandits, terrorists in North

    Nigerian candidates are frontrunners for top African Union positions.

    Economic diplomacy has brought in $14 billion from India, €250 million from the Netherlands, and $2.5 billion from Brazil’s JBS. The West Africa Economic Summit (WAES 2025), hosted brilliantly in Abuja, produced concrete trade pacts and investment commitments that will outlast headlines.

    Yet Tuggar never forgets the human element.

    His ministry has evacuated stranded citizens from conflict zones, secured scholarships for young Nigerians, and built a Diaspora Database now exceeding 11,000 registrants.

    Cultural diplomacy flourishes too. The return of Benin Bronzes, the new MFA Exhibition Atrium, and over 940 million positive global media impressions remind the world of Nigeria’s rich heritage, not just its challenges.

    On the tough issues, he stands firm.

    He categorically rejected U.S. attempts to deport Venezuelan gang members to Nigeria, insisting that Nigeria will not become a dumping ground for other nations’ criminals.

    He has criticised restrictive U.S. visa policies as unfair while pushing for balanced, respectful trade ties instead of one-sided demands.

    Security contributions are equally impressive.

    The Nigeria-initiated Sealift Agreement with the African Union has strengthened peacekeeping across the continent, reinforcing Nigeria’s role as a stabilising force rather than a problem child.

    Perhaps Tuggar’s greatest achievement is restoring dignity to Nigerian diplomacy.

    After years of reactive statements and inconsistent messaging, the ministry now speaks with one confident, evidence-based voice. Envoys are energised, missions purposeful, and Nigeria’s interests fiercely but respectfully defended.

    In a continent often spoken about rather than listened to, Tuggar has insisted that Africa and Nigeria must be the author of its own story. He does not beg for respect; he commands it through competence.

    The Street Journal’s award is welcome recognition, but the real prize is the Nigeria emerging under his stewardship: more invested in, more listened to, and far more confident on the global stage.

    It is not hyperbole to say that the extremely brainy minister has assumed the position of the number one public relation officer for Nigeria , transversing around the world polishing the image of the country.

    Cool, composed, and relentlessly effective, Yusuf Tuggar is proving that the strongest diplomacy is not the loudest, but the truest. Nigeria is fortunate to have him at the helm.

  • Saving Nigeria from insurgency without end

    Saving Nigeria from insurgency without end

    • By Lekan Olayiwola

    Nigeria dances between the war of bullets and that of belief; between crises defined by the intensity of violence, and those defined by the erosion of meaning. But beneath the sophisticated weaponry of insurgents, the sprawling kidnap-for-ransom networks, and the expanding territories of bandit enclaves, lies a subtler, deadlier adversary: a collapsing reservoir of public trust in the Nigerian state.

    More than the firepower of insurgents, it is this trust deficit that’s shaping the trajectory of Nigeria’s insecurity. It determines whether intelligence reaches the military in time; communities cooperate with security agencies or local youth choose the path of insurgency, vigilantism, or neutrality.

     Nigeria’s security travails are thus not merely operational, but profoundly psychological, political, moral, and international. The state must restore trust to win the war, yet cannot win the war without trust. Understanding this paradox with clarity and honesty is perhaps the most urgent task before Nigeria’s leaders today.

    Trust as national security infrastructure

     In counterinsurgency doctrine, the population is the centre of gravity; not territory, firepower or even ideology.  Yet, according to the Africa Polling Institute’s 2025 Social Cohesion Survey, 83% of Nigerians report little or no trust in the federal government, 82% distrust the National Assembly, and 79% distrust the judiciary. The Nigeria Social Cohesion Index stands at 46.8%, below the 50-point benchmark for a cohesive society. This isn’t simply political disaffection, but a civil-military emergency.

    Trust determines whether citizens alert authorities to suspicious movements in their villages; locals give sanctuary to militants or cooperate with security forces; communities intercept violent plots or stay silent out of fear or cynicism. When trust collapses, vital human intelligence is lost. And no surveillance drone can replace the instincts, eyes, and courage of communities who believe the state is on their side. Once trust collapses, the state becomes blind, deaf, and slow.

    Read Also: Fed Govt will rescue Kebbi abducted school girls, bring culprits to Justice — Shettima

     How trust deficit fuels insecurity

     Insurgents as political actors read environments with a predator’s sensitivity; recognise state weakness in public feeling and exploit trust deficits by filling vacuums in underserved communities and weaponising fear to suffocate intelligence reporting. Insurgents provide rough order— extortionist, brutal— but present enough to win passive acceptance, turning state failure into psychological warfare; and exploiting distrust to recruit.

    If reporting insurgents guarantees retaliation and does not guarantee protection, people will stay silent. An ambush on a Brigadier General, delayed military response to a school kidnapping, contradictory government statement, each becomes evidence in the insurgent propaganda of state weakness. In many communities, the choice is not ideological but survival. Youth who believe the state offers no future are more vulnerable to radicalisation, coercion, or opportunistic alignment. Nigeria’s security crisis escalates so quickly after each attack. The psychological shock ripples across the country, shrinking trust and widening the insurgent opportunity space.

     The dilemma facing Nigeria

    Nigeria faces a strategic paradox to quickly restore trust while also defeating violent groups. But each imperative complicates the other. A slow response validates the insurgents’ claim of government’s weakness; an aggressive one fuels civilian anger. Every move to regain legitimacy risks worsening legitimacy. More than a tactical challenge, insecurity is a governance-trust failure.

     Trust is not won in press statements or by successful raids. It is won in quiet, repeated, predictable patterns of protectiveness: schools reopen and remain open, markets function without fear, roads are safe consistently, security forces respond in minutes, not hours, abuses are punished transparently, communication aligns with reality and local leaders feel heard, not bypassed.

     Insurgents design their attacks to destroy predictability: interrupt schools, halt farming, shut markets, and burn transportation routes. They target the rhythms of daily life because their goal is to kill public confidence, not just people. This creates a strategic time asymmetry. Bandits win fast through disruption; the state slowly through consistency.

     Lessons from Colombia and the Philippines

    Colombia’s conflict with FARC lasted over 50 years. The turning point came with legitimacy-centred reforms. After the 2016 peace agreement, Bogotá deployed an integrated model in conflict zones known as Zonas Futuro, linking security with governance, justice, infrastructure, and social investment. Colombia discovered something Nigeria must internalise: you cannot defeat insurgency without the presence of teachers, judges, health workers, and predictable local governance. Colombia’s most successful interventions were those that created accountability loops between communities and state agencies..

     The Philippines’ peace with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) succeeded not because the military won outright, but because the state reframed its legitimacy crisis. The creation of the BARMM was not a political concession, but a legitimacy restoration mechanism. The agreement integrated local ownership of governance structures, international monitoring teams, and civil society oversight. The legitimacy gains have endured despite political turbulence.

     The international blind spot

     Successive governments have treated insurgency as a military issue inside Nigerian borders. Yet militants survive largely because of transnational criminal-financial ecosystems that Nigeria cannot dismantle alone. Without a coordinated foreign policy to cut off external funding, insurgency remains self-sustaining.

     Nigeria’s foreign policy should be repurposed to attack the financial infrastructure of insurgents including informal banking networks across the Sahel, arms trade in Libya/Sudan, gold, cattle and scrap metal smuggling in the region and cryptocurrency laundromats offshore.

     Nigeria must spearhead a global pressure campaign that includes targeting foreign arms brokers and lobbying the UN/EU/US sanctions on specific individuals and companies fuelling conflict. Sign bilateral agreements with Gulf States and North African governments (Algeria, Egypt, UAE) to monitor arms trafficking and freeze suspect wire transfers. Pursue a West African FATF-style task force to track illicit financial flows.

     Focus must shift from internal solutions alone because 40% to 50% of insurgent supply chains (arms, food, fuel, motorcycles, and mercenaries) flow through porous borders and corrupt networks outside Nigeria’s jurisdiction. Diplomacy is needed to shut those arteries. Revamp MNJTF with automatic intelligence exchange, not ad-hoc reports, patrol smuggling routes, and reduce cross-border pursuit off-limits to 2km.

     On the home front

    The state must reimagine itself not as a distant power, but as a guardian of dignity.  Legitimacy is emotional before it is administrative. People must feel protected to be protected. This requires a government that acknowledges mistakes, security forces trained in restraint and relational policing, active listening to communities, symbolic acts of reconciliation, accountability for abuses and investment in everyday life, not just major infrastructure.

    A reopened school in Zamfara is a counter-insurgency victory. A functioning clinic in Borno is a legitimacy victory. A transparent investigation into military misconduct is a moral victory. Each of these is as strategically critical as clearing a forest stronghold. An exemplary prosecution of terrorism sponsor signals seriousness in the war against banditry.

    Nigeria must adopt a strategy that treats trust as mission-critical. This means placing communities at the centre of security architecture, coordinating civilian, military, and developmental efforts in conflict-affected areas, institutionalising rapid-response security units, deploying teachers, judges, and health personnel alongside soldiers.

    It entails ensuring justice is swift, transparent, and visible; empowering local leaders and vigilante groups with oversight; and re-humanising national communication strategy. It requires rebuilding the social contract—the belief that the Nigerian state is worth cooperating with.

    •Olayiwola is a peace & conflict researcher/policy analyst. He can be reached via lekanolayiwola@gmail.com

  • Our forests and our disappearing herbs

    Our forests and our disappearing herbs

    • By Folake Ademiluyi

    Nigeria is beset and buffeted with several problems, some of them self-inflicted. Walking by a garden or even driving past a stretch of forest, untrained eyes would see green plants, trees and shrubs. Those plants, trees and shrubs to the herbal practitioner are the source and strength of formulations carrying healing powers. To mystics, these plants also hold keys to spiritual realms and achievements that are secrets to the uninitiated.

    While traditional herbalists have known the secrets of these plants for centuries, and have been using them as medicines for locals for centuries, increased awareness is just beginning to spread amongst people who consider themselves enlightened in western ways and have looked with disdain and fear upon the use of herbs. For a very long time, those who have the financial capacity to consult doctors trained in western medicine have looked at herbal medicine as demonic. Recent emergence of some resistant strains of infectious organisms and the current involvement of highly scientifically enlightened and exposed persons have also contributed to the lenient acceptance of traditional medicine.

    One of the present challenges to the advancement of herbal medicine in Nigeria is the indiscriminate felling of trees, land clearing for agricultural use, building of roads, estates and other infrastructure without consideration for the impact on herbal medicine. One would have thought that the federal, states and local governments would make it mandatory that when development involves land clearing, town planners would be involved to look at how to plan the projects to ensure that some areas are carved out to preserve and conserve some of the local flora and the contractors would involve horticulturists who would take samples of the local trees to be nursed and re-planted in the area.

    There are several areas in Lagos that bear names that one wonders how they came to be called by such names. For example, in Idi-Oro there are no Oro fruit trees (Irvingia gabonensis or Bush mango), in sight. At Mangoro Bus Stop on the way to Agege, it is interesting that there are no Mango trees (Mangifera indica) to justify the name. Same goes for Ilasa Bus Stop. The fact that there is no Okra (Abelmoschus esculentus) or even Triumfetta rhomboidea which can also be called Ilasa is baffling.  Why we decimate crops and still maintain the names by which their habitat was called when the plants were there seems rather ridiculous.

    I had the opportunity once to attend an exhibition where herbal practitioners and pharmaceutical companies were allowed to take stands to showcase their products.  While going round, I came to the stand of a well-known pharmaceutical company with good standing. I was excited to see that they are producing herbal preparations. Out of excitement, I asked where their herbal farm is. I learnt with pain and disappointment that they import their herbs from India and only formulate them here! I was disappointed because I had hoped that they are into some kind of backward integration.

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    It is this same kind of taking the easy way out that is responsible for most of our underdevelopment. Till today, most of our local herbs are got by foraging in the forests whereas in other climes, farmers are being encouraged to plant plantations of herbs both for local consumption and export. The time has come when we should stop thinking that farming is only about growing cassava, yam, rice and beans!

    While we point accusing fingers at contractors who decimate forests, the time has come when agencies, non-governmental agencies and other bodies involved in herbal medicine should either start to advocate that government sets parcels of land aside and designate them as herbal farms or these bodies themselves source funds to buy land for the growing of herbs just like the developers do for their estates.

    Foreign fruits and their impact on Nigerian trees and fruits

    While every country has a right to trade, it is interesting that Nigerians totally adopt goods from outside the Nigerian economy to the detriment of indigenous alternatives. We practically throw away the baby with the bath water when we replace our indigenous options with foreign substitutes.

    In practically every city in Nigeria now, conspicuously displayed are grapes, apples, pears foreign grown oranges, tangerines and even pomegranates. Meanwhile there are many people who grew up in the cities who have never seen Oro (Irvingia gabonensis), Iyeye (Spondias mombin), even wonder what Awin (Dialium guineense) is and look with disdain or fear at so many other local fruits that where in high demand in years gone by!

    The distribution network of the imported fruits is so efficient and the visibility so strong that they have even now become an integral part of bridal engagement dowry requirements. There is hardly any Nigerian town where these fruits are not found.

    One can only imagine how much foreign exchange goes into funding this luxury and how much money the foreign farmers and importers are making! Statistics have it that in 2021, Nigeria spent approximately $5 million importing fruits from South Africa alone.

    To most local farmers, the indigenous fruit trees have become financially unviable and unattractive. This has made it very easy for such trees to be sacrificed for immediate cash to whoever is the highest bidder requiring land, especially for the building of housing estates. Unfortunately these trees are not needed as fruit trees only. Their leaves, barks and roots are also sources of bio-active components needed and used in our local herbal medicine.

     Need for even more collaborative efforts amongst government agencies and bodies

    Just recently, September 11, 2023 to be precise, as published in www.thetidenewsonline.com, the Director General of the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC), Mojisola Adeyeye, pledged to ensure Nigeria’s herbal medicines’ improvement to enable global acceptance. This desire and resolve must have been borne out of juxtaposing the unrecorded revenue got from Nigeria’s herbal products with those produced in India and China. From 2015- 2023, Indian Ayurvedic Medicine generated $626.48million while the Chinese Traditional Medicine (TCM) market size in 2022 was $28.7 billion according to statistics posted on the internet.

    How will NAFDAC achieve its objective when the trees needed for this very important purpose are being felled indiscriminately?

    Gradually some of the plant requirements used in herbal medicine are being sourced by sellers of herbs in neighbouring countries to meet demand.

    There is a need for forestry agencies and those involved in licensing infrastructure developers to ensure that flora to be felled or cut to make way for development are propagated through cuttings and replanted later to ensure that the plants remain in their primary habitat.

    Estate developers should be encouraged to plan green areas that will involve the replanting of cuttings from the trees they fell to prevent these trees from going into extinction.  There is also a need for the encouragement of the growing of orchards of indigenous fruits and also the conservation of some forests to ensure the preservation of our precious trees for their medicinal wealth.

    When agencies and bodies work assiduously, better results will be got if their goals and efforts are congruent and meet at a point.

    According to studies carried out by relevant authorities, many of our forests are secondary forests and even the secondary forests in some areas are becoming savannah forests because of abuse. If not for a few groves like the Osun grove, most or our primary flora would have gone into extinction. The time has come for us to make concerted efforts, not only to conserve our forests but also to farm our herbs to meet the gradually increasing demand for herbal products.

    •Olori Ademiluyi, a passionate environmentalist, writes via ademiluyifolake830@gmail.com