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  • Recognition of Palestine: Symbolic gesture or turning point?

    Recognition of Palestine: Symbolic gesture or turning point?

    • By Senator Iroegbu

    On Monday September 22, French president, Emmanuel Macron addressed the United Nations General Assembly in New York and formally recognised the State of Palestine. Coming after similar moves by the United Kingdom, Canada, Spain, Belgium, and others, the announcement has been hailed in some quarters as a historic step toward justice. To others, it is reckless diplomacy that rewards violence and undermines security.

    Macron’s words were deliberate and forceful. “The time has come to free the hostages, to stop the bombings, to end the massacres, to seize peace before it slips away forever. One life is worth one life.” He framed recognition as both a moral duty and a strategic necessity—an attempt to salvage the dying two-state solution and re-anchor diplomacy in a conflict where Gaza’s two million residents face starvation, disease, and despair. France, alongside its allies, is betting that moral clarity, backed by aid, diplomacy, and multilateral engagement, can tilt the balance toward peace.

    But Israel sees it differently. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar branded the recognition “dangerous,” warning it indirectly legitimises Hamas. The fear in Tel Aviv is that unilateral recognition undermines Israel’s security, emboldens extremists, and weakens the negotiation table. Israel has even threatened to annex more of the West Bank—a move that could escalate the crisis rather than calm it.

    Macron, however, insists recognition is a blow against Hamas and a victory for moderates willing to pursue peace. He outlined a three-phase plan: an immediate ceasefire and hostage release; stabilisation and reconstruction of Gaza under a transitional Palestinian administration with international backing; and final-status negotiations on borders, security, and Jerusalem, paving the way for a sovereign Palestinian state alongside Israel.

    Supporters of the move argue that recognition empowers the Palestinian Authority, aligns Arab and European states, and injects urgency into stalled talks. Critics counter that it bypasses genuine negotiations, creates false hope for civilians who need governance rather than gestures, and risks deepening instability. The truth lies somewhere between symbolism and substance.

    France’s recognition of Palestine could become the spark that revives the two-state solution—or it could prove another diplomatic mirage. The direction it takes will depend not on speeches in New York, but on the hard work of building peace, disarming extremists, and delivering justice on the ground. That requires genuine commitment from all parties: Israel must embrace compromise rather than endless war; Palestinian leaders must prove they can govern responsibly; and the international community—including Africa—must move beyond rhetoric to sustained action.

    Recognition without enforcement risks being an empty gesture. But recognition combined with resources, security guarantees, and political will could become a turning point. History is replete with moments where bold declarations changed the course of nations. The question is whether September 22, will be remembered as such a moment—or as another chapter of missed opportunities.

    And that is where Africa must decide its role. Will we applaud Europe’s boldness, or will we step forward to influence the peace process, while pressing the world to pay equal attention to our own conflicts and quests for justice?

    France has chosen its path, declaring: “The time has come”. The challenge for Africa is whether we will echo those words not just for Palestine, but for ourselves as well.

    So what should Africans make of this moment?

    Nigeria and much of Africa have long sympathised with the Palestinian struggle, shaped by our own histories of colonialism, apartheid, and contested nationhood. Our leaders have consistently expressed solidarity with Palestine in international forums, often framing it as a moral duty tied to our own liberation struggles. Yet we also understand the perils of hollow recognition. Diplomatic statements do not feed hungry children, disarm militias, or rebuild shattered institutions. Without enforceable guarantees for security, humanitarian access, and accountable governance, recognition risks becoming another headline that fades while people in Gaza bury their dead.

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    Still, dismissing France’s move as mere symbolism misses the point. Recognition can shift international momentum, embolden moderates, and force hard questions: Is the global community finally willing to back words with resources, enforcement, and courage? Or is this just another cycle of lofty declarations while ground realities worsen?

    For Africa, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not a remote issue. It has ripple effects on our own security and diplomacy. Across the continent, sectarian tensions often flare in response to events in the Middle East, sometimes spilling into violence in our streets. At the same time, Africa has its own unhealed conflicts—from Sudan to the Sahel, from the Horn of Africa to the Great Lakes region—where questions of recognition, self-determination, and sovereignty echo eerily with Palestine’s plight. If France and its partners can push for justice in Gaza, why does the world remain so indifferent to African conflicts that displace millions?

    This is where Africa must resist the temptation of passive applause. Too often, the continent stands by on the sidelines, cheering global powers while having little say in shaping the outcomes. Recognition of Palestine should prompt a different response. Africa can leverage its collective diplomatic weight within the UN, the African Union, and regional blocs to insist that any peace plan in the Middle East reflects lessons from our own experiences with post-conflict reconstruction, power-sharing, and reconciliation.

    For instance, Africa has pioneered peacekeeping and transitional justice models that could inform Gaza’s stabilisation. The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), despite its flaws, demonstrated how regional actors can take the lead in containing extremist threats while laying the groundwork for governance. Truth and reconciliation processes in South Africa, Sierra Leone, and Rwanda remind us that peace is not only about territory or borders, but about confronting trauma, restoring dignity, and building inclusive institutions.

    More importantly, Africa must ask uncomfortable but necessary questions: If Europe can recognise Palestine as a moral imperative, why can’t Africa demand equal urgency in resolving its own crises? Why should Darfur, Eastern Congo, or the Lake Chad Basin continue to fester in silence while Palestine commands the world’s conscience?

    • Iroegbu is the convener of the Geopolitics Series, a platform that analyses global issues from an African context.
  • Rewiring the economy through gas

    Rewiring the economy through gas

    • By Oladele Akinjo

    Nigeria sits on over 206 trillion cubic feet of gas, yet industries still burn diesel and households rely on imported fuels. The paradox underscores why the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund (MDGIF)—created under Section 52 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021—is one of the country’s most consequential policy instruments. Its mandate: finance pipelines, processing plants, and networks that can make gas the backbone of the economy.

    After a slow start, momentum is building. In 2024, MDGIF established its Governing Council, appointed technocrat Oluwole Adama as Executive Director, and deployed an initial N122 billion ($74m) across six firms. By August 2025, that number had grown to 16 companies, spanning compressed natural gas (CNG) stations, LPG terminals, and mini-LNG plants. Some projects are already operational; others—like Ibile Oil & Gas’s 15 CNG stations and a mini-LNG plant in Delta—are due in 2025/26.

    This pipeline of projects aligns with Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas” agenda. The logic is straightforward: cheaper piped gas and CNG reduce manufacturers’ costs, displace diesel, and strengthen import substitution. Fewer fuel imports ease pressure on foreign reserves, while flare gas capture cuts emissions and boosts Nigeria’s ESG credentials.

    The timing is critical. Following subsidy removal in 2023, Nigerians faced inflationary shocks as fuel prices spiked. The government responded with the Presidential CNG Initiative (PCNGi), designed to roll out nationwide CNG buses and filling stations. MDGIF is effectively the supply-side engine behind this demand push. By financing CNG mother stations and LNG infrastructure, the Fund is enabling the delivery of cheaper, domestically sourced fuel.

    The payoff is twofold: CNG adoption reduces FX demand for imported petrol and diesel, while affordable alternatives help cushion subsidy removal’s social impact. In other words, gas is no longer just an energy play—it is an economic stabilizer.

    The N122 billion deployed in 2024 was not designed for spectacle but for replication—proof that MDGIF can underwrite gas infrastructure economics under Nigerian conditions. Each deal acts as an index case, showing that projects can move from concept to financial close and into operation.

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    This matters in a country where infrastructure often falls into the “pilot trap”—one-offs that fail to scale. By emphasizing standardized term sheets, transparent eligibility, and consistent monitoring, MDGIF can build a recognizable asset class for pension funds, insurers, and global infrastructure investors.

    For capital markets, credibility is measured by the company one keeps. That is why the MDGIF–Afreximbank Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), signed in September, is a watershed. It targets up to US$500 million over four years, blending Afreximbank’s senior debt with MDGIF’s equity.

    The true significance lies beyond the numbers. The MoU imports Afreximbank’s due diligence culture, global visibility, and rules-based risk approach—lowering Nigeria’s cost of capital. In an era where blended finance is the bridge between public ambition and private balance sheets, this is exactly how sovereign policy institutions gain credibility.

    Globally, the playbook is familiar. The UK’s Green Investment Bank catalysed offshore wind. India’s National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) blended sovereign capital with private investors under strict governance. Canada’s Infrastructure Bank has mobilized blended capital for PPPs. MDGIF mirrors these models, with the potential to unlock Nigeria’s vast pool of pension and insurance assets.

    Institutional investors buy governance before they buy assets. MDGIF’s structure—a Governing Council for strategy coupled with a professional execution team—mirrors best-in-class models like NIIF and the U.S. DOE Loan Programs Office (LPO).

    Why does this matter? Because governance quality translates directly into lower risk premia. Stronger risk identification and standardized documentation compress investor spreads, making more projects viable. For a country grappling with high financing costs, this is a decisive edge.

    Nations don’t get rich by discovering resources; they prosper by reducing the friction between resources and productive use. For Nigeria, that friction is overwhelmingly midstream and downstream. MDGIF’s role is to remove it by financing the pipes and plants that industry elsewhere takes for granted.

    The payoff connects directly to everyday economics: Cheaper industrial energy lowers production costs for manufacturing and food processing. Reduced import bills save scarce foreign exchange for education, health, and capital projects. Increased domestic value capture deepens the tax base without punitive rates.

    Flare reduction improves Nigeria’s ESG profile and opens access to lower-cost green finance.

    Three markers will show MDGIF has matured from promise to proof:

    Consistent project deployments of standardized documentation—not one-off deals.

    Transparency—published criteria, impact dashboards, and summarized council decisions.

    Durable partnerships—multilaterals like Afreximbank co-investing alongside Nigerian pension funds.

    The scaffolding is already in place. What remains is discipline: execute, document, repeat.

    MDGIF is not a footnote—it is a potential catalyst for Nigeria’s economic rewiring. By converting geological abundance into macro stability, industrial competitiveness, and climate-aligned growth, it can anchor a new economic model.

    If the Fund stays faithful to global standards, operationalizes its Afreximbank partnership, and continues aligning with national priorities like the PCNGi, Nigeria may finally deliver what markets rarely see: a sovereign platform that is both investment-grade in process and transformational in outcome.

    That, more than any slogan, is how Nigeria will truly rewire its economy through gas.

    •Akinjo writes from Lagos.

  • Warri, a distressed and dying city

    Warri, a distressed and dying city

    • By Michael Owhoko

    Who will restore Warri back to its glorious days? A city that was once the pride of all Wafarians, is now a shadow of itself, rusty and reeking with aroma of poverty occasioned by systemic decline with people cocooned in deprivation and squalor.  Warri is allusively known as Wafi, making the people and residents of the city identified as Wafarians.

    I was close to tears during my recent visit where I toured the length and breadth of Warri, covering Deco Road, Okumagba Avenue, Okere Road, McCiver, Odion Road, Market Road, Cemetery Road, Iyara, McDermott Road, Warri-Sapele Road, Upper and Lower Erejuwa, Ajamogha, Esisi, and Warri Port.  I stayed for over two months, the longest since my relocation to Lagos in 1984.  

    All I saw was a distressed and a dying city with shattered dreams, shrinking hopes, and diminished opportunities induced by capital flight and economic disorders.  It is a metaphor for youth unemployment, dwindling aspirations, and social chaos, where people just labour under profound deficit constrained by rationed resources, owing to lack of fresh capital from investors.

    Indeed, Warri is choking from severe economic dehydration, with all available spaces in front of buildings converted into small shops where people engaged in petty trading and POS businesses, making the whole streets look like mini-markets.  This is further worsened by the large number of keke tricycles almost outstripping the populace with attendant heavy noise emission. Even the dead have no peace in Warri as the entrance to the only cemetery in the town has been overtaken by petty traders, and keke tricycles mechanics, leaving a small gate for entry.

    How did such a once vibrant cosmopolitan city that attracted global presence, including investors, and played host to several notable national and international events, degenerate into a rural enclave with dilapidated structures?  What went wrong, and who created the mess which have betrayed the values and ideals that once held Wafarians together in unity and love?

    While it is easy to link Warri’s stunted growth to the unending ethnic rivalry among the Itsekiris, Urhobos and Ijaws, for posterity, it is also important to specifically identify those, whose actions, directly or indirectly, have contributed to the city’s appalling condition, which has brought shame and embarrassment to the collective psyche of Wafarians. 

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    First, the opposition of Warri as capital of Delta State at the creation by Itsekiri leaders, led by His Royal Majesty, the Olu of Warri, Atuwatse II, have done more harm to the general good of Warri, and setting the city backward.  The deficit outcome has made the motive designed to  protect the Itsekiri’s ethnic interests pale into insignificance.  What is the gain of this stand within the context of development, other than fear of Urhobo domination, and the need to thwart it?  This was an obvious delusion, and no amount of rationalization can justify the mess that has eclipsed Warri.  It was a miscalculation.  Sacrificing the city’s progress on the altar of narrow ethnic interest was a tragedy.

    Unfortunately, former military president, Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) further complicated the matter when he failed to demonstrate objective governance, taking advantage of the Itsekiri’s disapproval of Warri as capital to illogically site the capital of Delta State in Asaba, hometown of his wife.  It was the height of absurdity in decision making, and a study in bad leadership.  Had the ethnic trust deficit in Warri been bridged and the ethnic groups unite to demand Warri as capital, the city would have been better transformed with infrastructural advantage typical of a modern capital city, attracting foreign investors, to the benefit of all. 

    Second, the unending contention over ownership of Warri township among Urhobos, Itsekiris and Ijaws, over the years, have continued to promote ethnic animosity and discord, contributing immensely to the backwardness of the city.  Those who started this tussle have since passed on, without adding any value to their respective ethnic groups.  Sadly, this bitter ethnic rivalry is being passed on to succeeding generations, who have foolishly continued in this trajectory to spread hate, rather than live in harmony as neighbours, to achieve enduring peace and development in Warri.

    It should be noted that these ownership claims are exercise in futility, as neither of these ethnic groups, can practically dislodge one another to take physical possession of any habitation. For example, just as it is practically impossible for the Urhobos to evict the Itsekiris from Okere, it is also unrealistic for the Itsekiris to dispossess the Ijaws of Ogbe-Ijaw land.  

    And so, brandishing colonial and post-colonial court judgements and papers as proof of ownership, is insignificant and waste of energies.  The three ethnic groups must bury their pride and ego, and live together peacefully as Wafarians, bound by common cultural affinity, so that Warri can experience peace and progress again.   

    Third, ethnic leaders that directly or indirectly encourage and incite their youth to resort to violence, and sometimes, carry arms to threaten, destroy or kill their neighbours over land, have nothing to gain other than misery and poverty.  Ironically, it is the innocent children of the poor that are used for such senseless conflict, while the children of the rich, enjoy comfort in safe haven in faraway Lagos, Abuja, London, USA or Canada.

    Besides, the parents of most of these gullible youth being used to perpetuate these crimes, have no ancestral root, and properties in Warri township.  Destruction and mayhem only leave in their trail, economic decline, unemployment, anguish, suffering, hardship and poverty, as investors will flee with their capital from a hostile environment, as shown with the exit of numerous companies from the city. 

    Lessons ought to have been learnt from the Ijaw-Itsekiri conflict which lasted from 1997 to 1999 over siting of Warri South West Local Government Area headquarters.  At the end of that war, both parties counted only losses, no benefit, no value addition, and no reward.  Regrettably, companies that were hitherto sources of sustained fresh capital in Warri, relocated to other cities, bringing lack and despair to Warri and its environs.  There must not be a repeat of such a senseless ethnic war, as Warri may never survive a second experience. 

    The effect of the Ijaw-Itsekiri fight led to exit of companies like Pan Ocean, Schlumberger, Halliburton, Shell Petroleum Development Company, (SPDC), ELF, Conoco-Phillips, Agip, WEAFRI, NISSCO, Globestar, McDermott, DBN, WESCO, Hercules Offshore Nigeria, Nigeria Dredging & Marine, LAMNALCO, and Dunlop. Others include Saipem, Seismograph Services Limited, Snamprogetti, Dowell, Anadrill, Baroid, Santafe, Oceaneering, Kingsway, Leventis, West Minster Dredging, John Holt, SCOA, Glorylux, United Afrian Compay (UAC), Mandillas, Nestoil together with maritime and shipping firms located inside the Nigerian Ports Authority, Warri. 

    The companies not only left with their investment; they also left behind high unemployment rate of approximately 80 percent in Warri.  Except for Chevron Nigeria Limited, and perhaps, recently, Tantita Security Services Limited, through which fresh funds are being injected into the economy of Warri, the condition of the town would have been catastrophic.

    Fourth, those that engage in collection of “deve” (development) fee as precondition for commencement of project, and also, who forcefully demand employment and contract slots from companies, have also contributed to the poor condition of Warri.  By their actions, companies, including small business enterprises and individuals, are frustrated and discouraged from establishing businesses in the city, thereby compounding the unemployment burden. 

    Fifth, the non-operational Warri Port has also added to the economic hardship in Warri.  Ocean-going vessels that used to berth, servicing business interests in neighbouring Effurun, Udu, Benin, Onitsha, Asaba, and the environs, are no more.  This is further worsened by the collapse of adjoining companies like the Delta Steel Company, Owvian-Aladja and Warri Refinery and Petrochemical Company, Ekpan, which has taken a huge toll on Warri life. 

    It is therefore imperative for the ethnic groups to redirect their energies to promote peace and unity, in order to restore investors’ confidence. The Ijaws, Urhobos and Itsekiris’ leaders can also leverage their common cultural ties, as expressed in food, clothes, trade, history, and festivals to boost Warri’s economy.  For example, Warri cultural celebrations like Agbassa Juju (Idju Owhurie Festival) and Okere Juju (Awankere Festival) can be bolstered and turned into major tourists’ destination, as part of strategy to make Warri great again.  

    •Dr. Owhoko is a Lagos-based public policy analyst, author, and journalist.

  • Nigeria scores well on electricity reform rankings, but power supply isn’t affordable and reliable. Here’s why

    Nigeria scores well on electricity reform rankings, but power supply isn’t affordable and reliable. Here’s why

    • By Taiwo Hassan Odugbemi

    Nigeria’s electricity sector remains fragile. About 85 million Nigerians (43% of the population) lack access to grid electricity. This is one of the biggest energy access gaps in the world.

    Generation capacity is roughly 12,000MW–13,500MW, but far less power is actually delivered. In 2023, Nigeria generated 4,500MW for a population of over 200 million. For comparison, Ethiopia, with a population of 132 million, recently added 6,000MW to its generation capacity. Prior to that, it generated 5,200MW.

    Nigeria’s under-delivery is largely due to systemic challenges in the grid. These include technical inefficiencies, vandalism and ageing infrastructure.

    A new Electricity Act was passed in 2023 to address these problems by providing a legal and institutional structure. It was also designed to steer Nigeria’s power sector towards greater efficiency, integrated planning and the inclusion of renewable sources of energy.

    For the first time, the act empowered the 36 state governments to generate, transmit and distribute electricity within their territories.

    By July 2025, 10 states had introduced their own electricity market laws. They had also begun to set up state-level regulators and frameworks to oversee electricity operations within their borders.

    Until such laws are in place, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission continues to regulate the sector.

    But the shift from federal control towards localised electricity solutions raises questions about coordination, regulatory clarity and the capacity of individual states.

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    These are the challenges highlighted in the African Development Bank’s Electricity Regulatory Index Report, published in 2024. The report covers 43 countries.

    Overall, the index’s 2024 tables place Nigeria 15th out of the 43 assessed countries.

    I reviewed the report based on my academic research, which has included a PhD on reform in Nigeria’s power sector. The report makes it clear that Nigeria’s electricity reforms look solid on paper, but the real-world results still lag. The country’s energy sector is not uniformly ready to carry out the reforms. And, although there are rules and the regulator is not starting from zero, Nigerians still don’t have consistent, affordable and reliable power.

    The African Development Bank’s message is clear. To provide a reliable service, utilities must be transparent and financially sustainable.

    The indicators

    The index scores countries on three aspects of regulation:

    • Governance (laws and institutions)

    • Substance (whether rules and tools exist and are applied)

    • Outcomes (what consumers and utilities experience).

    So how does Nigeria score?

    Governance: Nigeria performs strongly. It had a Regulatory Governance Index score of 0.897 in 2024, which is high.

    The countries ahead of Nigeria are Uganda, Tanzania, Senegal, Kenya, Rwanda and South Africa.

    The score reflects a reasonably well-defined legal mandate for the regulator and formal processes for decision-making. It suggests Nigeria’s electricity regulatory frameworks are comparatively robust by continental standards.

    However, a gap remains. Nigeria is among the countries where regulatory documents and decisions are not consistently published. This weakens transparency and public accountability, according to the report.

    Some others in this category are Ghana, Burundi and Congo.

    Regulations: Nigeria scores well here too (0.843). The top performing countries are Rwanda, Uganda, Senegal and Kenya.

    Many of the essential instruments such as tariff methodologies, licensing frameworks, grid codes and consumer protection rules are in place.

    But there is a gap between design and robust enforcement.

    Outcomes: Here Nigeria continues to struggle. It scores 0.642, dragged down especially by quality of service delivery (0.512). Kenya, Senegal and Zimbabwe score above 0.80.

    The report highlights severe reliability problems. Some surveys reported over 32 outages per month. This places Nigeria among the countries with the least reliable electricity supply globally.

    Frequent power outages affect Nigeria’s economy. It drives up the cost of doing business, stalling production and discouraging investment.

    Distribution companies also face challenges. Only about half of the revenues owing to them end up in their coffers. This undermines financial sustainability.

    Nigeria’s overall position of 15th in the Electricity Regulatory Index’s 2024 tables underscores a gap: strong governance and a solid regulatory toolbox, but weak consumer outcomes.

    Despite reforms, weaknesses persist

    Five issues explain why outcomes trail behind governance and substance:

    • Weak enforcement of rules, reducing investor and consumer confidence

    • Financial weakness: high losses and poor tariff collection undermine sector sustainability

    • Supply unreliability: outages are frequent and generation capacity is limited

    • Governance gaps: political interference constrains regulator independence

    • Limited consumer protection: complaints resolution and metering progress remain inadequate.

    Moving forward

    Nigeria’s electricity sector requires stronger, coordinated reforms to translate regulatory frameworks into reliable supply.

    The federal government must make policies consistent and give the commission independence. Subsidies must be transparent and targeted.

    The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission must enforce tariffs, ensure there’s metering and protect consumers. It must also enhance market transparency. State governments, empowered under the 2023 Act, should establish credible regulatory agencies and align policies with national standards.

    Distribution companies and generation companies must become more efficient and invest in infrastructure upgrades.

    Finally, development partners and investors should provide technical and financial to accountability.

    Together, support tied these actions can create a sustainable, consumer-focused electricity market.

    •Odugbemi is lecturer in Economics, University of Abuja. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the https://theconversation.com/nigeria-scores-well-on-electricity-reform-rankings-but-power-supply-isnt-affordable-and-reliable-heres-why-263824”

  • NELFUND: Using education loan in battle against poverty

    NELFUND: Using education loan in battle against poverty

    • By Bamidele Ademola-Olateju

    The Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) initiative, launched by the Federal Government, has received a warm welcome. This enthusiasm is unsurprising, given Nigeria’s longstanding structural challenges. Education has consistently been viewed as a reliable means of escaping poverty and developing communities. This notion has been ingrained over time. Historically, individuals seeking access to post-secondary education had limited government intervention mechanisms at their disposal, relying instead on personal or community fundraising efforts, town unions, and other forms of support to realize their aspirations. The biographies of notable figures, such as Chief Obafemi Awolowo, illustrate the utilization of fundraising strategies akin to modern crowdfunding platforms like GoFundMe to support his legal education in London. In extreme cases, some individuals resorted to loan sharks, often with disastrous consequences. This underscores the profound desire for education and the pursuit of a brighter future.

    The student loan scheme  is the beginning of war against poverty, and unacceptable class stratification. It will also avert the looming threat of a society built on low skills, low wages, which is the classic depiction of a not fit for purpose, uncompetitive economy. This policy thrust is designed to avert a looming catastrophe and at the same time, a way to reboot the philosophical base of the political economy. The President is right that we should let the poor breathe. Access to and the funding of education remains the most important way to help the least protected sectors in a country bereft of structured social safety nets.

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    Over the past fifty years, various loan schemes have been implemented at the state and federal levels. The current structure of NELFUND marks a departure from this approach. Not only does the fund cover tuition, it also provides the student with a monthly stipend. The response has been encouraging, indicating that people have faith in the new framework. Unfortunately, institutional failures have resulted in limited repayment by beneficiaries of previous loan schemes. This was not primarily due to economic downturns but rather a mindset that viewed student loans as entitlement. As time progresses, it will be essential to monitor repayment records, particularly considering economic challenges and job creation issues. It is hoped that as job growth occurs, more individuals will take part in the NELFUND scheme and make prompt repayments.

    The policy thrust of the student loan scheme is at the heart of a new economic policy focused on the creation of a new economy which will make the economy more competitive  by ensuring that no one is left behind by feeling the potential skills and the human capital pool of society in a bid to make the economy more relevant as well as competitive. A good example here is the Republic of Benin. Benin has leveraged its education thrust on developing its human capital thrust on bringing in foreign exchange. Benin Republic nationals are bringing in hard currency as artisanal workers across West Africa.

    With NELFUND, we now can do the same on a deeper scale. Nigeria will use this wider access to plug in into the huge outsourcing market hitherto dominated by Brazil and India counties that do not have the English language skills of Nigeria. This market is about 500 billion dollars! The new policy will widen the talent pool which is always the trajectory of a great leap forward as Brazil, India, China and Malaysia have demonstrated. The social intervention component of paying a stipend of twenty thousand Naira is very important. It not only keeps the recipient in focus, but it triggers off a multiplier across the economy on terms of a multiplier effect on purchasing power parity. This is a masterstroke. Without this added benefit the scheme will not have the desired effect.

    We have for a long while had in the international and local markets Real Estate Invest Trusts( REITS), which has helped to deepen the housing markets and closed gaps in access. The new scheme and laudable thrust of the Tinubu government when repayments begin years down the road should produce  a Real Education Investment Trust which will be endlessly imitated across the world, unleash talents, create possibilities, make Nigeria competitive and ameliorate class differentials thereby lessening social tensions. It’s a big win! NELFUND should be perceived as an initiative aimed at building a skills-based economy, enhancing national competitiveness in international trade, and mitigating the impact of tariff wars.

    However, a concerning trend has emerged. The response to NELFUND has been uneven across geopolitical zones. Notably, the Southwest region, renowned for its strong investment in education, has recorded surprisingly low applications. This disparity must be addressed by authorities, state governments, and local governments in the region. Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Southwest would have the highest number of applicants, given its emphasis on education. The fact that this is not the case raises questions and necessitates investigation to rectify the imbalance.

    This oversight must not be overlooked, as it has significant implications for sustainable economic development. The Southwest Free Education Program, launched by the Action Group Government in the 1950s, provided the Western Region with a significant momentum, leveraging education to create economic opportunities. The authorities in the Southwest should be concerned, as the region is already facing challenges in capital formation, industrial development, and transitioning medium and large-scale entities into more diversified and competitive entities. The region’s lagging behind in this area is profoundly disturbing and demands immediate attention.

    The Southwest, like the rest of Nigeria, faces an education crisis. This crisis stems from the inability to align the education curriculum with future needs, looking ahead 5-20 years. This is tragic, and NELFUND must be utilized to propel a comprehensive revamp of the curriculum and concept of education in the twenty-first century. Fortunately, the Tinubu administration has embarked on a comprehensive new curriculum for secondary education. This must be aligned with revised curriculum for primary education as well. Both must be implemented alongside the new loan scheme.

    As it stands, we are not building a competitive future. For instance, many countries have introduced coding education from age 5-6, while this is not the case in Nigeria. NELFUND is commendable, but it must be synchronized with efforts from primary school level upwards to prepare students for the future. President Tinubu deserves commendation for establishing NELFUND as a vital social structure to bridge the widening gap of class stratification in our society. It provides opportunities for individuals to catch up, stay relevant, and bridge the gap between poverty and shared prosperity through the expansion of the middle class. Ultimately, NELFUND will contribute to rebuilding the middle-class base of our society, which is commendable and worthy of applause.

    •Ademola-Olateju, a former Ondo State Commissioner for Information, is Director of New Media and Corporate Services for All Progressives Congress (APC)

  • Reflections on FRSC’s data collection and road safety management

    Reflections on FRSC’s data collection and road safety management

    • By Alimi O. Adamu

    The Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), the lead road safety management agency is responsible for managing and ensuring the safety of motorists and other road users on the nation’s highways. This obligates the Corps to formulate a framework and develop measures for managing safety risks, reducing crash rates, minimising fatality and severity of crash and crash-related injuries. It is also to identify areas of needed intervention and take proactive steps to prevent road crashes. 

    Effective road safety management requires a deep understanding of the scope of the problem and the competence to develop appropriate countermeasures for managing the consequences of road mishaps. Mechanisms must also be instituted to evaluate, select and monitor remedial measures, and to midwife expected outcomes. It calls for an admixture of accurate crash and safety data.

    Crash data involves forensic collation of the facts and figures gathered at a crash scene, like the date, time, and location of an occurrence, the type of crash and vehicle involved, and the severity level and property damage. Since the data is generated in situ, it is generally considered reliable as a main source of research, and useful in monitoring trends, patterns and risk locations.

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    Safety data provides a comprehensive understanding of the status of safety on the roads. It is an aggregation of crash data and its derivative factors like road condition, traffic volume, designated speed limit, medical system quality and traffic law enforcement. It also records key participants’ behaviour, like the use of seat belts and phones, and drunkenness that contributed to the crash. Safety data is useful in risk assessment and prevention, diagnosing the causes and the contributory factors of crashes; selecting treatments; and developing and monitoring the performance of road safety initiatives.

    In addition, it is useful for raising awareness of the magnitude of road crash-related injuries and deaths, convincing policymakers of the need for action, and guiding resource allocation.

    The quality of input data is fundamental to the accuracy of research analyses and output. Incorrect data would result in faulty deductions and designing ineffective countermeasures. Therefore, to ensure the efficacy of safety reports and enhance decision-making, the underlying data must be measurable, complete, consistent, valid, timely, unique, reliable and accessible. This begins with the data collection method. To enable comparison across countries, the World Health Organisation, in its Global Status Report on Road Safety, advocates the need for standardisation or uniformity in how data is collected and presented.

    The need to address the integrity of data collection and presentation methods is where road safety management presents complex challenges, especially for low-income countries, including Nigeria.

    Generally, low-income countries lack adequate facilities for road safety research, resulting from limited capacity for gathering, collating, and analysing data. Policy makers rarely prioritise safer road initiatives hence they often fail to allocate adequate resources for developing relevant data. Rather than viewing the initiatives as independent budget item, oftentimes, they link or subjugate them to other development priorities like infrastructure network development, policing, and judicial reform. But then, even if policy decision or resource allocation is not controllable by the lead safety management agency, the discretion as to how to properly utilise available resources in the performance of its functions is usually controllable by the agency. This is where the necessity arises to score FRSC’s stewardship in its role as the premier road safety management agency in Nigeria.

    The body, FRSC, collates statistics on road crashes in Nigeria and publishes the results in a quarter-yearly report, the FRSC Statistical Digest. The inaugural edition of the Digest was released for 1st Quarter, 2015. It debuted as a relatively comprehensive work that is rich in statistical content, format and presentation. The Editor’s Suite (Editorial Page) boasts of robust data management as one of the Corps’ cardinal plans. Now, over 10 years since the launch, the publication is anything but a citadel of robust data management or a reliable source of research into its core activities.

    Analysis and comparison of the maiden edition with subsequent publications beginning with that of the 2nd Quarter, 2015, show deficiency and unreliability in content and presentation. The modern iteration has markedly departed from the tone of the maiden edition, with the latter being intellectually sloppy, replete with errors and gaps in data, and deficient in linkage and uniformity. It omits key variables for integrating crash data with explanatory datasets and fails to identify contributory factors to, or describe the outcomes and circumstances of crashes.

    In the 1st Quarter, 2015 Digest, the FRSC’s nerve center, the Operations Department, declared Total War on Overloading, which it touted as “a clear indication of the efforts put in by the department in curtailing the excesses of our motorists”. To buttress its seriousness in curtailing the excesses, it renders statistical summaries of offenders and offences, and a summary of arrests on riding motorcycle without crash helmet.

    The inaugural edition also provides a summary of offenders and offences, which format is repeated in the 2nd Quarter publication. In a classic example of inconsistency in collection and presentation of statistics, the 3rd and 4th Quarter editions failed to reflect the number of offenders, and showed the summary of offences only. This omission makes statistical comparison impossible.

    In addition to the raw statistics, the 1st and 2nd quarter reports computed arrests arising from the Total War on Overloading on percentages basis by weighing the figures for each zone against the national total. For example, the 1st Quarter returned 3,438 combined arrests nationwide. Of this number, Gwagwalada Zone recorded the highest violators, with 751. This represented 24% of the national total. The percentage summation was omitted from the 3rd and 4th Quarter editions. While the supporting data for deriving the percentages is available, the graphical summation is helpful for consistency in presentation and ranking.

    Next, the content of each quarter publication for the year differs from others. Quarters 3 and 4 reports are presented in comparative format, whereby Quarter 3 is compared with Quarters 1 and 2, and Quarter 4, with Quarters 1, 2 and 3. This comparative analysis is absent in the Quarters 1 and 2 Digests. For Quarter 1, one may argue that there was no basis for comparison since the preceding period predated the publication. The argument is not tenable because Table 11 of that edition compared Zonal NDL production with the figures for Quarter 4, 2014 – a period equally before the advent of the Digest. The reporting on the Total War could have adopted the Table 11 model and compared the statistics for Quarter 1 with those of Quarter 4, 2014. As for Quarter 2, this had the basis for comparison but totally eliminated any pretexts at the exercise.

    There is a glaring omission in the Operations Department’s that must be addressed. It failed to capture or render statistics on the casualties or number of people involved in bicycle, motorcycle and tricycle-related crashes. This failure is ironic because walking and cycling across or along the roads have been identified as some of the main crash types on the world’s roads. Pedestrians, motorcyclists and cyclists who are more particularly vulnerable to road crashes and face increased risks of serious injuries and deaths are often overlooked in statistical analysis. This omission by the department increases the degree to which road traffic crashes (RTC) are considerably underreported in Nigeria. It implies a possible distortion of the outcomes of the research and can negatively impact the development of countermeasures.

    Suboptimal statistical digest has consequences in the drive for providing safer roads. Inconsistencies in reporting consist one of the most serious issues affecting data quality. Studies have found a correlation between inconsistency in occurrences and crash rates. The higher the former, the higher the crash counts, and vice versa. Even though the extent and severity of misreporting vary between attributes, and the level of its impact in road safety analyses is not yet entirely known, there are indications that data recordation and reporting shortcomings potentially distort research outcomes and have a subsequent negative impact on developing countermeasures.

    The enumerated deficiencies of the FRSC Statistical Digest make comparison between editions difficult, thereby eroding its utility as a credible source for research into safer roads in Nigeria. This dis-incentivises meaningful policy-making decisions and impedes investments in road safety research funding. It has wider global implications. The poor quality of the Digest makes inter-country comparison unattainable. It impedes Nigeria’s ability to attract foreign funding for road safety research and intervention and shows that the country is not ready for a seat at the table when global decisions on road safety are being taken.

    •Adamu is a legal practitioner and convener of Safer Roads Action Network.

  • On the north-south divide

    On the north-south divide

    • By Austin Orette

    Are we really divided by geography or culture? Nigeria is a very heterogeneous society. From the cacophony of our disagreements, there is a thought that there is a straight line that separates the North and the South, the East and the West.

    We have been presented with the scenario that the North will always want the opposite of what the South wants. This means if the South wants unity, then the North by default will want disunity.  At the moment, most people in the South want restructuring. The North does not want it as we are told.

    To what extent has geography decided our destiny? Are we really different temperamentally due to accidents in our geography? We will believe so if we subscribe to the prevailing notion that we are incapable of brewing a culture that is inclusive because of our geographic placements.

    Nigeria is a very heterogeneous and variegated society that has failed to evolve a theme that is inclusive of all the people within our borders. The failure to achieve this elusive unity is due to our primordial loyalties and attachments to our origins.  This failure is also a failure of imagination and expansion of our consciousness in a place where we can discover our common humanity. At this place, we will see each other. This failure also means we are still like children, who have refused to grow up and will not leave home.

    Some have posited that we could have been better if the imaginary line that separated the North and South was made more visible and not blurred by the interposition of Lord Lugard. Most Nigerians will always blame the British for this amalgamation.

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    I don’t, because Lord Lugard did what he had to do for the love of Britain. He needed to save cost and make the colonization easier for His Royal Majesty. All he did was for the love of his homeland. No matter how much we blame the British, the constant is they did what they have to do for the love of Britain.

    My question is: What have we done for the love of our people and Nigeria? This is the question we should ask ourselves every day. Have we evolved any system to bring us together as the largest concentration of black people in the world? The answer is no. At the time Africans were crying for the unity of Black people, some Nigerians wanted more fragmentation. This means that we cannot go beyond the artificial lines that were created to confine us and we have accepted an imaginary line that makes neighbours to be strangers perpetually. It also suggests that we are lazy and cannot go beyond our comfort zone.

    We have a duty to reframe and recalibrate our relationships devoid of exploitation by those who have numerical advantage. The respect for the rights of minorities is a sine qua non in a society that aspires to be democratic. As the largest concentration of Black people in the world, it is our responsibility to evolve beyond our present conditions of strife and ethnic hostilities and adopt a more inclusive theme for our polity.

    If you remove the imported religions, we have more in common as Nigerians. These foreign religions are actually the fuel for the tribalism and ethnic divisions that are tearing the nation apart.

    There are more minorities in the North than in the South. The North is actually more advanced in terms of inter-ethnic harmony than the South. A northerner is more likely to say he is a northerner than a southerner. A southerner will identify with his tribe first.  This is where the northerner is more advanced in inter-ethnic relations. They have a more panoramic view of Nigeria than the average southerner.

    The South is still a basin of inter-ethnic rivalries. The reason for this is that the South is not as variegated as the North. The rivalry and low intensity animus between the Southwest and Southeast is becoming tiresome. This rivalry makes it difficult to evolve ethos that are beyond ethnic nationalism. These tribes, instead of developing a blueprint of cohabitation with the minority tribes, engage in parasitic relationships that are injurious to the minority tribes. They even want the minority tribes to forget their history and become members of the large tribes.

    Can the parasite absorb the host? Nature says no. The host just wants to be left alone to survive the interplay and ignominy of the so-called big tribes. The way Yoruba and Igbo behave in the South makes me wonder if they are aware of any other people besides them who occupy this terrain we call Southern Nigeria. They need to take a lesson from the North on how to unify people.

    We need unity all over the country, but southern unity is very essential for the unity and progress of Nigeria. Southern unity is needed to free the North from religious tyranny that impeded progress and imprison northern youth in a cocoon of ignorance. This state of ignorance makes the northern youth to erroneously identify with the vision of his oppressor.

    How did the North become so united? They used a language of common purpose. No matter the drawback of the Fulani, they were able to draw up a philosophy of a common heritage. This could be religion or culture. Since we don’t have a common heritage in the South, we can draw up a common theme that can unify us.  We could adopt the theme: Justice, equality and fairness. It is not enough to say you are Igbo. Do you believe in justice? Do you believe in equality? Do you believe in fairness? If the answer is yes, I will work with you to evolve a better relationship.

    What does it mean to be a Yoruba? Do you believe in justice? Do you believe in fairness? Do you believe in equality? If the answer is yes, I will work with you to evolve a better terrain for our people. It is the negative answers that come from these groups that militate against any form of unity in Nigeria.

    To be effective, we must as a matter of urgency restructure Nigeria for proper governance. Restructuring will reduce hostilities and arbitrariness of governance. Knowledgeable people will move from a mediocre and moribund unitary/central governance and improve the lives of people at the local level who can be trusted to pick the right people for leadership. Our focus should be on this solemn obligation that must not be trifled by any singular loyalty to the village idiot who is still a troglodyte.

    •Dr Orette writes from Houston, Texas, United States.

  • Housing is a right

    Housing is a right

    Sir: Though globally recognized as the cornerstone of human rights frameworks, over a billion people worldwide continue to live in inadequate conditions or face homelessness. Access to decent and affordable housing remains unrealized for them.

     It is the same story in Nigeria. With a deficit of about 28 million housing units, Nigeria faces a critical housing shortage, causing house prices to skyrocket beyond the reach of middle-class families. This has left millions of Nigerians to grapple with inadequate living conditions, forcing many into slums and peripheral areas with limited infrastructure and social services.

    More Nigerians are being pushed into informal housing markets, those in the low ends are left to survive in environments where health, security, and opportunities for upward mobility are severely limited, which exacerbates poverty and undermines efforts to improve living standards.

    Yet Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution (as amended), section 43, explicitly  states that every citizen of Nigeria shall have the right to acquire and own immovable property anywhere in Nigeria. In other words, provision of adequate and quality housing is one of the roles of any government and one of its main responsibilities to its citizens. This resonates with the United Nations Habitat Agenda that underscores the provision of adequate and affordable housing as a fundamental human right. To this end, government should prioritize affordable housing by increasing investments in housing finance and infrastructure development. Public-private partnerships could play a pivotal role in addressing the deficit.

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    Housing sector needs a comprehensive overhaul. Government should spearhead the process by frontally addressing the factors that contribute to housing challenge in the country. Fundamental issues of high cost of land acquisition; long, complex and bureaucratic process of titling and documentation; increasing cost of building materials; and inadequate infrastructure have made it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for developers to build affordable homes. Government should address these issues.

     Government should address the issue of mortgage. Absence of a comprehensive mortgage system is a major impediment to home ownership. Federal government’s National Housing Programme and other initiatives have been marred by inadequate funding, corruption, and poor project execution. These combined have created significant barriers for middle and low-income earners to purchase homes.

    Home is where our story begins. As we grow older, home becomes our sanctuary. The home is the foundation and bedrock of stability and security for any individual or family. It is the centre of social, emotional, and to a large extent, economic life; a place to live in peace and dignity.

    Housing is a fundamental human right, it is essential for dignity, and man’s well-being. Right to adequate housing has been given a place within the provisions of International human rights law. Nigerian government should provide affordable housing for Nigerians.

    • ESV Aaron Ibironke, Lagos
  • Tragedy of titles without innovation

    Tragedy of titles without innovation

    Sir: Across the world, the most transformative innovations that humanity depends on today were not necessarily birthed in university lecture halls. They were pioneered by men and women who, in many cases, had little or no tertiary education, yet their vision, courage, and practical genius reshaped industries and societies.

    Unfortunately, Nigeria stands on the opposite side of this reality. Here, academic titles are celebrated far above capacity. Professors and PhD holders are decorated endlessly, but their work rarely translates into innovations that solve pressing national problems.

    Nigeria prides itself on having thousands of professors and PhD graduates across diverse fields. Yet, how many of them can point to one ground-breaking innovation after decades of academic life? What most showcase are long lists of journal publications, many of which neither influence policy nor drive industry. These papers often end up gathering dust in university libraries or being recycled as wrappers for street snacks. For a nation that aspires to compete in the global knowledge economy, this is nothing short of embarrassing.

    Our tertiary institutions have become factories of research titles rather than engines of innovation. Academic promotion has been reduced to a rat race of publishing papers that contribute little to real-world change. Students write projects that are forgotten the moment they graduate, dissertations that solve no problems, and research that is disconnected from Nigeria’s everyday realities. This obsession with paper qualifications over practical capacity has left the nation trailing in science, technology, and innovation.

    It was not always this way. In the 1970s, Nigeria had a shining example in Professor Ayodele Awojobi, a mechanical engineer of global repute. He built the Autonov 1, a car innovation that could run forward and backward with equal efficiency, fitted with dual steering wheels and a revolving driver’s seat. His invention was far ahead of its time. Yet, decades after his death, it lies abandoned, with no meaningful advancement from our tertiary institutions or research bodies. His story reflects Nigeria’s tragedy: we allow brilliance to die with individuals while we glorify hollow titles.

    Contrast this with Nigerians who have excelled globally because they operated in environments where innovation is nurtured. Samuel Achilefu, a Nigerian-born scientist, invented cancer-vision goggles, which allow surgeons to see cancer cells during operations. This life-saving technology is now deployed in hospitals abroad. Osato Osemwengie, another Nigerian, works with NASA, contributing to cutting-edge drone technology. Silas Adekunle, a robotics engineer, created MekaMon, the world’s first gaming robot, which was commercialised in partnership with Apple.  Bennet Omalu, the forensic pathologist who discovered chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) in American footballers, changed sports medicine globally.

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    These are Nigerians whose innovations shook the world, yet their breakthroughs were not incubated in Nigeria’s academic system. They had to leave the country or operate outside its suffocating obsession with paper titles. The question is: why can’t Nigeria’s institutions replicate these successes within its own borders?

    If Nigeria is serious about national development, then our academic culture must change. Tertiary institutions should not only award degrees but also serve as hubs of innovation. Research must be tied directly to industry, agriculture, health, and technology. Projects should not end in the library shelves but in patents, startups, and solutions that address national problems. Titles should not be conferred merely for publications but for tangible contributions that lead to commercial products, global deployments, and real socio-economic value.

    The government, too, must rise to the challenge. It is not enough to fund tertiary institutions for salaries and buildings. Strategic investments in innovation hubs, research grants tied to practical outcomes, and partnerships with industries are urgently needed. The private sector must also play its role by collaborating with academia to scale up inventions into commercial ventures.

    At this point, Nigeria must ask itself hard questions. What is the worth of a professor whose knowledge never leaves the classroom? Of what value is a doctorate that cannot improve lives or drive national progress? If our tertiary institutions continue to produce graduates without solutions, then we are breeding intellectual emptiness in ceremonial gowns.

    The world is moving at the speed of innovation. Countries that were once on par with Nigeria have raced ahead because they invested in creativity, science, and problem-solving. We cannot afford to remain stuck in the vanity of titles. It is time to celebrate capacity, not empty prestige. Our nation must decide whether it will remain a land of decorated academics or rise as a hub of inventors, innovators, and builders.

    The future of Nigeria depends on this choice.

    • ‘Kayode Awojobi, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State
  • Insecurity: Balancing kinetic and non-kinetic approaches

    Insecurity: Balancing kinetic and non-kinetic approaches

    Sir: The insecurity challenges in Nigeria, particularly banditry, have defied simplistic solutions. While the kinetic approach, military and law enforcement operations, has achieved some notable successes, it has not produced the ultimate outcome of sustainable peace. Instead, it has often fuelled a cycle of violence between state and non-state actors, while local communities continue to suffer.

    To break this cycle, there is a compelling need to complement kinetic measures with non-kinetic strategies such as dialogue, community engagement, education, intelligence-driven peacebuilding, and socio-economic empowerment.

    The kinetic approach is necessary but insufficient. It weakens the operational strength of criminal groups but fails to address the root causes of insecurity, such as poverty, unemployment, social injustice, and weak community trust in government. In some cases, heavy-handed operations or errors in operations create resentment among local populations, inadvertently creating new recruits for criminal networks.

    The non-kinetic measures are designed to fill the gaps left by military and security forces’ action as well as reducing unnecessary pressures on security forces. These include: building trust through dialogue with traditional rulers, religious leaders, and local influencers, including the actors themselves; creating opportunities for youth through education, vocational training, and employment; rehabilitation and reintegration, including providing pathways for repentant bandits or militants to re-join society; intelligence gathering and strengthening human intelligence networks within communities to prevent attacks before they occur.

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    In fighting insecurity, multi-stakeholder engagement is imperative, because national security cannot be achieved by the federal government alone. A sustainable strategy requires the active participation of state governments in tailoring responses to local realities. Support from local governments in intelligence gathering and community mobilization is also essential. Engagement of traditional and religious institutions as custodians of local values and mediators in conflict resolution, as well as collaboration with civil society and development partners to address humanitarian and socio-economic needs is equally important. The government should also introduce local language media programs through the social media and other medium; it will reach and enlighten the bandits and other insurgents

    The current approach of adopting a hybrid security framework that blends military action with non-kinetic approaches to create both deterrence and reconciliation is commendable. This dialogue approach should be institutionalized through community dialogue platforms.

    Furthermore, establishing regular consultation forums where local leaders and security agencies exchange intelligence and build trust is also important. Investment in youth empowerment and the development of targeted programs for skills acquisition, entrepreneurship, and agricultural employment to undercut the appeal of criminal networks should be built into the non-kinetic approach.

    Another important element is strengthening data-driven decision-making, basing security strategies on rigorous research, mapping of conflict-prone areas, and historical analysis of community dynamics. Fighting insecurity is a continuous process; any slack will have negative impact. Therefore, the creation of measurable benchmarks, as well as the development of monitoring frameworks to evaluate the success of both kinetic and non-kinetic interventions over time, will be helpful.

    No government can afford to sustain a security approach that fails to deliver positive outcomes. A purely kinetic strategy risks perpetuating violence while a purely non-kinetic approach may embolden criminal groups. The way forward lies in a carefully balanced model that applies force where necessary, while simultaneously addressing the root causes of insecurity through dialogue, trust-building, and socio-economic development. Only by harmonizing both approaches can Nigeria break the cycle of violence and build a foundation for sustainable peace and security.

    • Zayyad I. Muhammad, Abuja