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  • Northern Nigeria’s mounting debts

    Northern Nigeria’s mounting debts

    SIR: The recent revelation of the debt profile of states has cast a troubling shadow over the economic stability of several northern states. Among them, Bauchi, Kaduna, Kano, and Katsina rank highest in accumulated debt, raising urgent concerns over fiscal responsibility, transparency, and the future of sustainable development in the region.

    As of December 2023, Bauchi State alone owed over N143.9 billion in domestic debt and $186.8 million in external debt, according to data from the Debt Management Office (DMO). These figures place Bauchi among the top five most indebted northern states. However, despite this significant borrowing, visible infrastructure, improved social services, and measurable development outcomes remain elusive.

    Debt, in itself, is not inherently problematic. Governments around the world leverage borrowing as a tool for economic expansion and long-term investment. However, the challenge arises when debts are incurred without a corresponding improvement in the welfare of citizens or clear accountability for how funds are used.

    In Bauchi and other northern states, this paradox is stark. Education, healthcare, road infrastructure, and water supply systems remain grossly underfunded or abandoned. Rural communities still lack access to basic amenities, while state budgets continue to prioritize debt servicing over service delivery.

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    A 2023 BudgIT report reveals that many northern states are allocating a significant portion of their Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) to debt repayment. For instance, Bauchi spent approximately 70% of its IGR servicing debts in the last two years, leaving little room for meaningful capital investment or human development.

    While governors often cite “legacy projects” and economic development plans to justify borrowing, a lack of transparency and weak institutional oversight has raised red flags among policy analysts and civil society organizations.

    In Kaduna, for example, successive administrations justified loans for infrastructural expansion, yet public schools and primary healthcare centres remain in distress. In Kano, the rising debt burden has coincided with increased cases of delayed pension payments and growing dissatisfaction among civil servants. Katsina faces similar challenges—borrowing has done little to stem the tide of poverty, unemployment, and insecurity.

    In Bauchi, Governor Bala Mohammed’s administration has repeatedly emphasized infrastructure and agricultural transformation. However, several projects are either incomplete, poorly executed, or of questionable public relevance. Communities in districts like Itas-Gadau and Shira continue to suffer from poor roads and inadequate health facilities, calling into question the efficiency and equity of resource allocation.

    Northern Nigeria’s development challenge is not solely a matter of limited resources—it is primarily a problem of poor financial management and lack of political accountability. As debt levels soar, there must be a coordinated demand from civil society, the media, and concerned citizens for open financial books, project audits, and debt justification mechanisms.

    Instituting a framework where debt is linked to measurable outcomes—such as reduced maternal mortality, improved school enrolment, and increased access to clean water—is critical to ensuring that future borrowing delivers tangible value.

    As Nigeria navigates a delicate economic recovery in the post-fuel subsidy era, state governments must embrace reforms centred on fiscal discipline, revenue diversification, and transparent governance.

    For northern states, especially Bauchi, this is not just an economic imperative—it is a moral duty. Leaders must understand that borrowing is not a substitute for good governance. The people deserve more than recurring debt announcements and ceremonial project commissioning; they deserve lasting impact.

    The road to sustainable development is paved not just with funds, but with vision, integrity, and accountability. Anything short of that is a disservice to the millions who continue to live without the most basic essentials of life.

    • Yasir Shehu Adam (Dan Liman), Bauchi.
  • 2027: It’s APC, PDP, and the rest

    2027: It’s APC, PDP, and the rest

    SIR: As politicking for the 2027 elections gradually gains momentum, both new and familiar scenarios will inevitably unfold. Nigeria’s political landscape is dynamic, and often geopolitical, and 2027 will be no exception.

    The truth is, despite its internal wrangling and historical baggage, any coalition that does not have the PDP as its central pillar is unlikely to achieve the kind of national spread required to win a presidential election in Nigeria. The PDP, with its extensive grassroots network and long-standing presence across all six geopolitical zones, remains the only opposition party with a truly nationwide structure even if its influence has somewhat waned in recent years.

    Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the two significant third-force figures from the 2023 elections , do not appear particularly enthusiastic about forming a coalition, at least not one that’s clearly defined or strategic.

    Peter Obi, from all indications, seems prepared to give the presidency another shot. However, the conditions that led to his surprise performance in 2023, particularly the waves of ‘unsolicited’ support from some urban youth and Christian voters disillusioned with the mainstream parties — have largely diminished. That groundswell was driven in large part by a reactive fear: the controversy surrounding Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, which sparked anxiety among many Christians. Today, that fear has dissipated.

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    Kwankwaso, on the other hand, appears to have adopted a more pragmatic, localized approach. Kwankwaso’s posture suggests a strategy of quiet autonomy: “I have Kano; let me control it. I won’t interfere with you, and don’t interfere with me”. This mentality may give him relevance at the regional level but severely limits his national appeal.

    President Bola Tinubu has, whether knowingly or not, given new oxygen to the dormant CPC bloc — a bloc of the APC that once represented the ideological and political base of Buhari’s loyalists. Now, with the central leadership perceived as disconnected from northern interests, the CPC bloc sees an opportunity to reassert itself. In places like the Northwest, especially, this could lead to a realignment of loyalties. Tinubu still has time and political tools to course-correct before 2027, if he chooses to use them.

    The current promoters of a coalition, however, appear to be relying on an outdated strategy. The 2015-style bandwagon movement, built around the idea of ‘change’ is unlikely to resonate with voters in 2027.

    In 2027, two key elements will determine electoral successes, not only at the centre but in states as well: massive resources; both financial and structural, and science. Gone are the days when charisma and rhetoric alone could deliver victory. Any political group serious about winning must embrace data-driven strategy. This means conducting detailed research into voter behaviour, turnout patterns, demographic shifts, and regional voting strengths. It also means understanding the psychology of the electorate, particularly among young voters, who now make up a decisive segment. Apolitical political scientists, data analysts, and behavioural experts will play a more important role than ever before. Without this, even the best-funded campaign could fall flat.

    Finally, it is important to accept that the coalition model of 2015 and the voting behaviour of 2023 are not likely to repeat themselves. Nigeria’s political terrain has evolved a little so to speak. Though the tomorrow is pregnant, the three major blocs heading into the 2027 elections appear to be: President Bola Tinubu’s APC, the PDP, and the rest. And, it is shaping up to be a near-zero-sum game

    • Zayyad I. Muhammad, Abuja.
  • NUJ @70: What should we celebrate?

    NUJ @70: What should we celebrate?

    The Nigerian Union of Journalists (NUJ) has just arrived at the 7th floor, to use a street idiom. Its 70th birthday was announced by its president, Alhasan Yahya Abdullahi on March 15, an indication that the union has reached the age of maturity having clocked three score and 10. Its history is replete with trials and triumphs but its birth came 96 years after Nigeria’s first newspaper Iwe Irohin was published in Abeokuta and five years before Nigeria gained its independence in 1960. So the birth of the NUJ came at the closing hours of the struggle for Nigeria’s liberation from colonialism.

    The founding president of the union was Mobolaji Odunewu while its pioneer secretary was Olu Oyesanya. The union’s major assignments in those early days were to consolidate on the fight for independence, advocating for an independent media as the country became independent. In 1962 there was the issue of the Anglo-Nigeria Defence Pact which divided Nigerians into two separate camps – one for and one against. It was the students of the University of Ibadan, not the NUJ that made the difference. The U.I students stormed Lagos with their placards and forced the Nigerian government to abandon the signing of the Anglo-Nigerian Defence Pact.

    But over the years, the NUJ gathered its strength and started fighting against government censorship and advocating for press freedom. In 1973 it waged a relentless battle along with other media groups for Minere Amakiri, a Nigerian Observer correspondent whose head was shaved with a broken bottle on the orders of Alfred Diete Spiff, military governor of Rivers State. His offence was that he reported the grievances of local teachers on the birthday of the military governor. This was a major battle for the media and the NUJ rose to the occasion with alacrity.

    The NUJ also joined other media groups in fighting against Decree 4 of 1984 but this did not prevent the Muhammadu Buhari military government from sending two Guardian reporters, Tunde Thompson and Nduka Irabor to jail for publishing the truth. Their offence was that the offence affected either the government or government officials. After that obnoxious decision, the Buhari government was no longer courageous enough to send truth to jail.

    There was also the Treason and Treasonable Offences Decree No. 29 of 1993 enacted by the Sani Abacha government. Under that decree, Kunle Ajibade, Chris Anyanwu, George Mbah and Ben Charles Obi were sent to jail for 15 years. However, the mysterious death of Abacha and the ascension of General Abdulsalami Abubakar to the throne saved the journalists from serving the full 15 years jail term. In this fight, neither the NUJ nor any of the media groups could save the journalists from this inexplicable punishment by the tyrant.

    But even with all the best efforts of the various journalism groups, journalists were turned by the irresponsible governments of Nigeria into routinely endangered species. In 1983 when I wrote a predictive article on the Nigeria External Telecommunications where there was fraud, I was tried for murder because some fellows set the place on fire as was the trend in those days where there were cases of corruption. In 1986 Dele Giwa, the founding Editor in Chief of Newswatch was assassinated for no just cause. In 1987 Newswatch was shut down for publishing a report of the Cookey Committee on Democracy, a report that the Babangida government refused to release because of his desire to continuously delay the return to democracy. Such irrational decisions were rampant in those days but neither the NUJ nor any of the other media groups could do anything significant about their reversal. In 1994, Dan Agbese, Yakubu Mohammed and Ray Ekpu, all of Newswatch were tried for mutiny. The offence was not anything close to mutiny. They were detained and tried for publishing an interview with David Mark that the Abacha government did not like. Mark was one of the coup plotters that brought Abacha to power after overthrowing Ernest Shonekan, the leader of the Interim National Government set up by Babangida.

    Today, there are about 740 chapels of the NUJ in the country. There are other sub-groups such as the Nigerian Association of Women Journalists (NAWOJ) and the Sports Writers Association of Nigeria (SWAN) and a few others representing various fragments of professional groups. But the issue of major concern to professional journalists is the enlistment of Ministry of Information officials as journalists. In other countries, they are called information professionals, not journalists.

    I had a conversation on this with Smart Adeyemi who was president of the NUJ at the time. He told me that the NUJ needed the check-up dues paid by the Ministry of Information officials. So for him, it was a matter of cash. The truth however is that with the huge presence of these Ministry of Information officials in the NUJ, the union cannot take a serious decision on issues of fundamental importance to journalism because they are government officials. That is a matter that the NUJ has not been able to resolve so far whether at the national level or in the states.

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    The other matter is that the NUJ sees itself and acts more as a trade union than as a professional body. It does very little training for its members and does very little in the promotion of professional and ethical issues. The recent review of the ethics of the profession was handled largely by the Newspaper Proprietors’ Association of Nigeria (NPAN) and the Nigerian Guild of Editors. The NUJ made no contribution to the review. The NUJ must work more closely with the NPAN and NGE so as to benefit from the experience and network of the two major groups. That is the only way it can improve the lot of its members.

    Today, the arrival of the social media has impacted seriously and negatively on the practice of journalism. Falsehood is being published as truth in the social media. This turn of events in the new technology universe has adversely affected the fortunes of most media – and most journalists – today. A paradigm shift is needed urgently and the NUJ must be part of this media renaissance. This new era must include what to do for journalists in distress, what to do for journalists in retirement, what to do for journalists who cover dangerous assignments, what to do for journalists who face harassment for doing their jobs professionally and ethically, what to do to improve the financial life of media organisations.

    The NUJ must move in a new direction so as to achieve enduring results for the benefit of its members in this new era.

  • Reconciling economic growth with environmental sustainability

    Reconciling economic growth with environmental sustainability

    • By Adésegun Olútáyo Osìbánjo

    Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the modern era, demanding urgent global action to mitigate its adverse effects on the environment, economies, and human lives. For Africa, however, the quest for climate action raises fundamental questions about how to balance environmental responsibilities with economic growth and energy access.

    The concept of climate action emerged alongside growing awareness of industrialization’s environmental toll. By the mid-20th century, scientists had begun documenting the impact of human activities on the climate, prompting international responses. Agreements like the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Climate Agreement (2015) sought to address global warming by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, promoting adaptation, and supporting sustainable development.

    While these frameworks marked significant milestones, they also exposed disparities between industrialized and developing nations. Wealthier nations, having benefited from decades of unrestricted industrialization, assumed leadership roles in crafting these agreements, often neglecting the realities faced by regions like Africa.

    Global demand for climate action has intensified, driven by mounting evidence of climate change’s impacts. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, and threats to food security have highlighted the urgency of coordinated efforts. However, this demand often assumes universal applicability, masking deep disparities in contributions to climate change and capacities for mitigation.

    Industrialized countries dominate global CO2 emissions, reflecting their extensive histories of fossil fuel consumption. In contrast, developing regions like Africa contribute only about 3% to global emissions, a fact that underscores the disproportionate pressures placed on the continent to adopt stringent environmental policies.

    Historical context reveals the unequal distribution of CO2 emissions across nations. Economies like the United States, China, and those in Europe have accounted for the majority of global emissions, driven by industrial activities and energy-intensive growth strategies. This legacy of emissions contrasts sharply with Africa’s minimal contribution, which results from limited industrialization and energy poverty.

    Despite contributing only a fraction to global emissions, African nations are often expected to implement ambitious climate strategies similar to those of industrialized countries. These expectations fail to account for Africa’s developmental challenges, including low economic growth, widespread poverty, and insufficient access to modern energy.

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    The emphasis on global climate action has resulted in undue pressure on Africa to conform to stringent environmental policies. Policies championed by developed nations, such as the Biden administration’s aggressive environmental agenda, frequently overlook Africa’s need for economic growth and energy infrastructure. This imbalance exacerbates challenges for the continent, which must navigate high energy poverty and limited financial resources while striving to meet global expectations.

    Economic growth vs. environmental stringency

    A contrasting approach emerged during the Trump administration, which prioritized economic growth and energy independence over strict environmental regulations. By withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, the administration signalled a commitment to balancing economic prosperity with environmental sustainability. US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright underscored the importance of fostering energy development as a driver of growth, a stance that aligns with Africa’s realities and aspirations.

    Africa and the African Union (AU) must seize this opportunity to assert energy sovereignty and prioritize economic development. By rejecting economically harmful climate policies, the continent can chart a course toward inclusive growth and sustainable progress.

    Sustainability factor for electricity provision

    Electricity provision in Africa must align with the sustainability factor, which emphasizes affordability and accessibility for consumers. Fossil fuels, particularly coal, offer cost-effective solutions for addressing energy poverty, provided their environmental impacts are managed through technologies like Clean Coal Technology (CCT).

    CCT, which significantly reduces CO2 emissions from coal-powered plants, demonstrates that fossil fuel-based energy can be harnessed responsibly. This approach enables African nations to close their energy gaps without compromising their developmental objectives.

    The concept of leapfrogging directly to renewable energy systems has gained traction as a proposed solution for Africa’s energy challenges. While appealing in theory, this approach overlooks critical practicalities. Renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydro are intermittent, reliant on weather conditions, and incapable of providing a 24/7 electricity supply.

    Transitioning away from fossil fuels entirely without alternative solutions risks deepening energy poverty and stalling economic progress. A diversified energy mix, incorporating both fossil fuels and renewables, offers a balanced strategy for meeting Africa’s energy demands while addressing environmental concerns.

    Role of Research and Development

    Research and Development (R&D) must anchor Africa’s climate action strategy, enabling the development of technologies that enhance energy efficiency and reduce environmental impacts. Clean Coal Technology, carbon capture innovations, and advancements in renewable energy storage exemplify the possibilities for achieving a sustainable energy portfolio.

    R&D also empowers Africa to craft home grown solutions tailored to its unique challenges. By investing in education, science, and technology, the continent can position itself as a global leader in sustainable energy innovation.

    Energy access is central to economic growth, industrialization, and societal development. Without reliable electricity, industries cannot thrive, healthcare systems cannot function effectively, and education remains stifled. The absence of energy infrastructure perpetuates brain drain (“Japa”), as skilled professionals seek better opportunities abroad.

    By addressing energy poverty through accessible and affordable solutions, Africa can reverse this trend (“Japada”), drawing its diaspora’s expertise and positioning itself as a hub for global innovation. Energy independence is not just a developmental necessity; it is a transformative pathway toward reclaiming Africa’s rightful place in the global economy.

    Sustainability in Africa requires a balanced approach that meets the needs of people, the planet, and economic progress. Instead of imposing one-size-fits-all policies, the global community must support Africa in designing energy systems aligned with its unique realities. Investments in R&D, diversified energy strategies, and innovative technologies ensure Africa achieves a just transition while safeguarding the environment and advancing its developmental priorities.

    Inspired by the timeless wisdom of 2AO’s Words on Marble: “Any developing nation that remains a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement and prioritizes the implementation of stringent environmental policies over the fundamental needs of the people and the country’s economic growth is destined to wallow in abject poverty forever,” Nigeria can build on the fulcrum of this guiding principle to redefine Africa’s approach to climate action and foster inclusive development.

    •Engr. Osibánjo is convener of the Africa Woke Citizens Platform (AWCP). He writes via adeolu.osibanjo@outlook.com

  • NNPCL: Lessons from Petrobras

    NNPCL: Lessons from Petrobras

    • By Bello Salihu

    My mind flashed back to Petrobras, the Brazilian oil giant, and the possibilities that abound when I saw calibre of seasoned professionals appointed into the recently reconstituted board of Nigerian national oil company, the NNPCL. The make-up of the new board, announced just over a week ago, demonstrates the unstated ambition of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu government to unleash the NNPCL and drive it to heights unthinkable just a few years ago. I am sure all Nigerians of goodwill, especially those connected to our industry, wish the new board all success as they set on in their task of reposition the company for rapid growth.

    In roughly the time it takes to hold five soccer World Cups — out of which it has won two, Brazil has turned itself around from being an almost failed state with a basket case economy to a member of an elite class of emerging economies popularly called BRIC. While two of the other letters in that acronym depict countries that have achieved their ‘rapidly-emerging economies’ status by consuming huge amounts hydrocarbon-based energy (China and India), Brazil’s ticket to the elite club came via the aggressive exploration, discovery and production of massive amounts of the stuff. It helped tremendously that the technology that had to be bought, copied or stolen to achieve such a feat was domesticated in the country, thereby allowing other sectors of the economy, from agriculture to aerospace, to benefit. An Amazon-scale technological revolution that started less than three decades ago with rickety offshore oil rigs has spawned aircraft assembly lines and a multi-billion-dollar biofuels industry; and that, seemingly, is just the beginning.

    To say that the Brazilian stated-sanctioned semi-public oil and gas conglomerate, Petróleo Brasileiro S. A., or Petrobras as it is more widely known, has a hand in that transformation is to overstate the obvious. Petrobras is now a bold, entrepreneurial, innovative and technologically adept National Oil Company (NOC), that is holding its own amongst or even bettering, major International Oil Companies (IOCs) that have been known to use such entrepreneurial qualities to dominate the oil landscape. The slogan under which Petrobras operates is “The Oil Is Ours” (“O petróleo é nosso” in Portuguese) and sure enough, they are finding a lot of it in their backyard and farther away in many more countries — 18 countries at the last count. In fact, Petrobras has cornered and owned more than the oil, they now command mastery over the technology to explore and produce it from under thousands of meters of water in current and planned massive deep water developments.

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    Because of the nature of our industry, the strategy of most operators is to do well in all facets of the E & P value chain and then find one link in the chain in which it outclasses its competitors. For some companies, that ‘niche expertise’ is transportation, for others such as Qatargas and Russia’s Gazprom, it is gas development and for others still it is not a technology but dominance in a region of the world such as France’s Total E&P in Sub Saharan Africa. For Petrobras, it is offshore oil developments. An arena into which they were pushed when they faced near-bankruptcy as a result of the Arab Oil Embargo which led to the global oil crisis of 1973. So, when in later years, the international oil industry reached a certain level of technological confidence as to venture into first near offshore, then deep water developments, Petrobras, unlike other national oil companies, came ready.

    But the company’s transformation from an overstaffed and inefficient state-run bureaucracy that it was from over 30 years after its creation in the 50s to what it is today can be more directly linked to factors that have their roots in a more commonplace logic rather than runaway capitalism or technological adventurism. The year of that logic was 1997 when the Brazilian government enacted Law N. 9.478 which effectively broke the company’s monopoly in the country and opened up the space for competitors to operate in the Brazilian upstream oil and gas industry. By doing so, the then government of Fernando Cardoso, in effect, told Petrobras to learn to swim with the sharks that are the international oil majors, the IOCs, who were all, bar none, interested in investing in the burgeoning Brazilian offshore and later deep water exploration activities, or to sink. But instead of sinking, Petrobras swam or rather cut a niche for itself in deep water exploration that has now reached far beyond the Atlantic coast of Brazil and into the 18 countries in the world where the company operates.

    From an insignificant production of 2700 barrels of oil per day when the company commenced operations in the 1950s, Petrobras now produces about three million barrels of oil daily from all its global operations, and thanks to that, Brazil is now completely energy independent. The country is home to one of the most successful oil and gas development companies in the world, and on the back of which it has built a knowledge economy capable of ensuring the continuous growth of both the company and country.

    What is even more interesting in all this is that Petrobras achieved this feat against a backdrop of the near-collapse, occasioned by populism that has destroyed the two leading national oil companies in its region, namely Mexico’s Pemex and Venezuela’s PdVSA. It was for good reason that when in 2006, the company undertook the technological feat of drilling 5000 metres of rock and salt lying under 2000 metres of water (that is a total depth of seven kilometres) to discover a super-giant field in the Tupi area of the Santos Basin, they named the field ‘Lula’ as a homage to their president. Lula da Silva, the president not the field, led a government that gave the company a free hand to be as aggressively capitalist as they come albeit himself being a staunch socialist. That arm’s length approach is the impetus that fuelled, forgive the pun, Petrobras’ transformation into the biggest company by market capitalisation in Latin America. The government refused to tread the easy route taken across the border by the Chavez government in Venezuela, which has turned the country’s NOC, PdVSA, into an extension of the state’s socialist welfare apparatus.

    Without the powerful combination of visionary management ready to take risks, a dedicated, well-trained, professional and mission-ready personnel ready execute the vision and a national government able and ready to buy into the vision and support it with whatever is required, the Petrobras story would have been very different.

    As national oil companies go, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, may look like a poor cousin if placed side-by-side to Petrobras, but a discerning observer can clearly see that the main reason why one is soaring and the other is struggling is more a question of enabling environment than of ability. NNPC today houses a widely respected oil and gas engineering company in the business. The National Engineering and Technical Company Limited, or NETCO, is a subsidiary of the NNPC that has decided, even though it is still under the umbrella of the corporation, to wean itself of the protection of that umbrella and, à la Petrobras of 1997, to swim with the sharks. It is now aggressively fighting for contracts, winning them, executing them to the satisfaction of their clients and establishing itself as a more serious business than its parent company or any of its other subsidiaries. The story would have been different if NETCO were still continuing like a protected ‘NNPC baby’ as usual. Likewise, it is the same Nigerians, some of whom were NNPC employees of the Eleme Petrochemical Plant, that are now running the same plant efficiently on behalf of the current owner, Indorama. The only thing that changed is the enabling environment. Because any national oil operating or service company can be a Petrobras, a NETCO or an Eleme-Indorama with the right vision, leadership and prudent management. It is no rocket science.

    •Dr Salihu is a Fellow of the Energy Institute and writes from London, UK. This article was first published in February 2013 in a weekly magazine published by the Leadership newspapers

  • AI not silver bullet for climate change

    AI not silver bullet for climate change

    • By Nelvin Ebingiye Agbozu

    Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often touted as a revolutionary solution in the global fight against climate change. Its capabilities in data analysis, predictive modelling, and optimisation have inspired ambitious projects across energy, agriculture, urban planning, and environmental monitoring. However, while AI holds substantial promise, it is neither a panacea nor a standalone solution. If misapplied or over-relied upon, it can distract from, and even deepen, the very environmental challenges it is intended to solve.

    As a digital technology professional, it is vital to assess AI’s role through a lens of realism, ethics, and equity, particularly when considering its growing influence on climate policy, corporate behaviour, and environmental governance.

    One of the paradoxes of AI is its own environmental cost. Training a single large-scale AI model like OpenAI’s GPT-series or Google’s BERT can emit as much carbon as five petrol-fuelled cars over their lifetime. These emissions stem largely from energy-hungry data centres, which support the vast computational processes required to train, fine-tune, and deploy AI models. Although some countries, like Sweden and Iceland, have shifted their data centres towards renewable energy sources, many others — including major AI hubs — still rely heavily on fossil fuels.

    In the United Kingdom, the Climate Change Committee has already flagged digital infrastructure as a growing contributor to national emissions. While the government has promoted green innovation, ensuring the decarbonisation of AI infrastructure remains a pressing challenge. Without systemic efforts to green the AI supply chain, its contribution to climate mitigation risks becoming self-defeating.

    AI’s performance is directly tied to the quality and quantity of data it consumes. Unfortunately, climate-related data is not evenly distributed across the globe. Developed nations typically have more sophisticated monitoring systems, richer datasets, and robust digital infrastructure. Conversely, countries in the Global South — often the most vulnerable to climate shocks — lack comprehensive, high-resolution environmental data.

    This disparity creates what experts term ‘data inequality’. When AI models trained on Western or urban-centric datasets are applied to climate scenarios in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, or the Pacific Islands, they often yield inaccurate or biased predictions. For instance, an AI-based flood prediction model trained on European river systems may perform poorly in the Niger Delta or Mekong Basin, where topography, drainage, and weather patterns differ dramatically.

    To address this, several countries have taken proactive steps. Kenya and South Africa, for example, have launched open environmental data platforms and AI policy frameworks aimed at localised innovation. Similarly, India’s National AI Mission includes climate resilience as a core focus, with investments in weather modelling and agricultural forecasting. These initiatives illustrate how developing countries can shape AI to meet their unique environmental contexts — if they are empowered with the right tools and support.

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    Another key concern is the concentration of AI development in the hands of a few tech giants. Companies such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta not only own the infrastructure but also dominate the data pipelines and algorithmic architectures. This centralisation creates opaque systems, where climate-related decision-making can be influenced by corporate interests rather than the public good.

    This is especially problematic when proprietary AI models are deployed in public sector initiatives. For example, using AI to determine disaster relief resource allocation or carbon trading valuations may sound efficient, but without transparency and oversight, these systems risk reinforcing existing power imbalances or excluding marginalised communities from decision-making.

    Some countries are already responding to these risks. The European Union’s AI Act includes specific clauses on environmental and social impact assessments for high-risk AI systems. Canada’s Algorithmic Impact Assessment framework mandates public reporting and ethical evaluation for government-deployed AI. These efforts demonstrate the importance of democratic governance in AI deployment, particularly when the stakes involve planetary health and human livelihoods.

    Climate change is not a neatly bounded problem that can be solved through optimisation alone. It is a complex, non-linear system, interwoven with social, political, and economic dynamics. While AI excels in structured environments such as image recognition, logistics, or financial forecasting, it often struggles with the chaos, uncertainty, and long feedback loops inherent in ecological systems.

    For example, AI models can predict weather patterns with increasing accuracy, but they are far less adept at forecasting the social consequences of prolonged drought, mass migration, or political unrest triggered by resource scarcity. Overconfidence in AI’s predictive power can thus lead to policy missteps and delayed action on more grounded, human-centred solutions.

    The UK’s National Digital Twin Programme and initiatives like Climate TRACE (a global emissions tracking consortium) show promising applications of AI and digital technology in system-level climate understanding. However, even these rely heavily on human interpretation, stakeholder engagement, and policy coordination. AI should complement — not replace — human judgment and societal input.

    A growing narrative in tech and policy circles suggests that AI will “solve” climate change. This narrative, while well-meaning, is deeply flawed. It risks promoting a form of techno-solutionism that underestimates the need for structural reform, behavioural change, and political will.

    For example, corporations may invest in AI to optimize logistics or monitor emissions, while continuing unsustainable extraction, deforestation, or plastic production in parallel. This creates a form of “greenwashing by algorithm,” where the appearance of innovation masks a lack of substantive change. In this sense, AI becomes a tool for reputational gain rather than environmental impact.

    To avoid this pitfall, companies must integrate AI into holistic sustainability strategies, not as a branding exercise, but as a means to drive genuine accountability and change. Governments must also ensure that climate policy does not become overly reliant on technological fixes at the expense of emissions reduction, conservation, or social justice.

    To realise AI’s potential in the climate space, several shifts are necessary, such as decarbonising AI infrastructure, democratising data and tools, building local capacity, enhancing governance and trust, and promoting interdisciplinary collaboration.

    Technology alone cannot solve the climate crisis. AI offers great potential, but it must be used ethically and inclusively. Misuse risks deepening inequalities. As digital sustainability professionals, we must lead with humility, responsibility, and global unity. True climate progress requires not just innovation, but wisdom, values, and collective governance.

    •Agbozu, a data scientist, writes from Bayelsa State

  • 2027: The Northern politicians’ discontent with Tinubu’s appointments

    2027: The Northern politicians’ discontent with Tinubu’s appointments

    • By Bamidele Atoyebi

    The protests have escalated to a volume that surpasses the usual complaints of marginalization from the north. This situation prompted a closer examination of the appointment list, resulting in further confusion. The question arises: what exactly is the North protesting?

    The issue has been framed in various ways; some accuse President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of “Yorubanizing” appointments and governance, while others label it as marginalization or nepotism. But what is the true situation? Do the Yoruba have a greater share of appointments in this administration compared to the North? Or, in the context of Nigeria’s political power-sharing, is the South receiving preferential treatment in appointments? The answer appears to be a clear no, leading to further inquiry into the real issue at hand.

    Statistics are often reliable, and undeniable facts illuminate the situation. An analysis of appointment distribution under the Tinubu administration reveals that North Central region received the most appointments, followed by North West and then South West, despite the President’s origin from the latter. It seems he aimed for national cohesion, providing more appointments to other regions than his own, likely to ensure a smoother governance that aligns with his plans for the nation.

    Delving into the appointment distribution as per the power-sharing understanding, it becomes evident that the North still retains the majority of such positions. With 55 percent of appointments going to the North and 45 percent to the South, the North is still in a more favorable position, despite the ongoing protests.

    This prompts a deeper examination and reveals a fundamental issue overlooked by President Tinubu.

    In the South, appointments are generally accepted without the demand that they go to specific individuals or groups. However, in the North, this has sparked discontent as a class system or cabal traditionally dictates who receives appointments. Those considered outside this group are not regarded as part of the region’s appointments.

    The real grievance of Northern politicians appears to be that appointments are being made to individuals outside their established circles, ignoring the familial and cabalistic rotation expected in the region.

    To Tinubu, the essential criterion for appointments is competence, regardless of regional origin, yet this approach has not been well-received among those in the North who feel excluded from the decision-making process.

    This backlash indicates a mindset akin to a caste system, where only certain individuals believe they are entitled to positions of power while others are left waiting for their share.

    What is particularly surprising about the Northern outcry is its inconsistency; in the previous administration, those who are now vocal were aware of the imbalanced appointments but remained silent. This raises questions about their previous compliance: were the appointments made within their circle the reason for their silence, or did they adopt a principle of turning a blind eye when their own were in power?

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    Asiwaju seems determined to focus solely on capability and performance, seeking out competent individuals irrespective of their social standing.

    In contemporary times, it is disheartening to witness a mindset that deems fellow citizens unworthy of service or appointments. Does this imply a true imbalance in power that must remain confined within certain families or groups in the North?

    In reality, the notion of lopsided appointments that disadvantage the North does not hold. The true issue lies in the fact that appointments have not been confined to the established cabals. It is crucial to confront reality and focus on development, instead of being hindered by outdated caste ideologies. Ultimately, we are all equal.

    • Writing from Abuja, Bamidele Lateef Atoyebi is part of the BAT Ideological and Accountability Group.
  • Any nexus between the ‘Mad Man’ concept and Trump’s ongoing mad-hatter tariffs (1)

    Any nexus between the ‘Mad Man’ concept and Trump’s ongoing mad-hatter tariffs (1)

    • By Tiko Okoye

    The Mad Man concept was a rave during the period when Richard Melhouse Nixon was POTUS, and the eclectic Henry Kissinger was his Secretary of State.

    At the height of tensions between China & the US, Nixon sent Kissinger to Beijing (then Peking) to make the Chinese ‘see’ reason for reaching an amicable truce on crucial issues.

    Kissinger had a bifurcated negotiating tool stuck in his diplomatic briefcase: a carrot in the form of recognizing Beijing’s claim as the ‘authentic China;’ and a stick by seemingly giving believability to the rumour that “mad-man” Nixon was willing and ready to use the nuclear bomb to force a settlement if negotiations failed.

    The US had effectively used the vicious tactic to arm-twist the Japanese emperor into signing a unilateral armistice when Japan was still bent on fighting, long after Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany had lost in WWII.

    Because the tactic worked in Japan, the Nixon administration believed it would also work on China with strikingly similar culture and traditions. The real challenge was convincing Chinese leaders that any political leader was mad enough to contemplate dropping nuclear bombs on another sovereign nation after the ugly PR the Japanese incident had triggered.

    But Nixon’s credentials in this regard were rock solid. He was rabidly anti-Communist and referred to Chinese commies as vermins behind closed doors. The world, and especially the Chinese leadership, accepted that Nixon was more than mad enough to concretise the threat.

    Fast-forward to Donald John Trump the 47th POTUS. This fellow is 100% TRANSACTIONAL, with his top three interests being Trump, Trump and Trump! He says he wants to make America great again (MAGA), and after losing out in 2020 – and crying that the election was stolen from him – American voters gave him a second chance in 2025.

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    Less than 100 days into his presidency, Trump has taken the American economic to the edge of a cataclysmic precipice, with the rest of the world in the eye of a trade hurricane, direct consequences of a unilateral tariff regime he magusterially dubs “reciprocal.”

    The ill-conceived tariffs have seen US stock markets lose a whopping $6+ trillion within just two days. Trained economists might say: “But they’re just paper losses that won’t be realized until security holders sell off.” That may be true, but there are millions of American workers who have seen their 401k retirement investments go up in smoke just at the time they wanted to sell down to fund critical needs!

    Trump defeated Kamala, among several reasons, on the basis that he will make domestic prices of everyday staples for Americans e.g. eggs, milk and corn flakes, plummet like a meteor. His carefully branded image as a successful multi-billionaire business mogul made US voters swallow the hype hook, line and sinker.

    A few of us who shouted ourselves hoarse that the perpetually WIIFM-demanding Trump is one of the greatest con artists in the world, and that Americans were on the cusp of boarding a one-chance vehicle, were derisively dismissed. (WIIFM is the acronym for What’s In It For Me?).

    With everything that’s now unraveling, I ought to be saying, “I told you so!” But just like Kamala, I pledge not to tell folks that I told you so

    But while Trump may exhibit symptoms of dementia and madness from time to time, his craziness hardly has anything to do with ideology like Nixon. So, why would Trump who inherited a growing economy from Joe Biden – with the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years and counting – move so quickly to tie himself and the US economy in a Gordian knot?

    To do justice to this puzzle, I decided to heed the axiomatic saying that to catch a thief, one must think like a thief!

    Since the one trait his supporters and haters see eye-to-eye is his ultra-high transactional behaviour, I decided to perceive issues as much as possible through patented DJT transactional lenses, and what I saw literally caused my head to swell.

    The tariff gambit is all a grandiose Ponzi scheme gone awry! At the bottom of it all – take it or leave it – is a grand plot to SHORT THE MARKET!

    The Trump team knew the chaos the tariffs would cause, and everyone in the loop – including members of his inner circle and GOP  billionaire election financiers – have already adopted a short position, with an horizon of 60-90 days when they would be required to settle their positions.

    It doesn’t require rocket science to realize the massive profit one can make from buying shares or bonds or whatever investment instruments when prices are at rock bottom to settle the astronomically high prices of long buyers willing to take possession after a period of time.

    But do NOT expect the GOP-controlled Congress, Supreme Court, FBI, Securities & Exchange Commission and Department of Justice to investigate any of this because the fear of Donald Trump has since become the beginning of wisdom in the US.

    In Part 2, I’ll ruminate aloud how the President Bola Tinubu administration can opportunistically leverage Trump’s chaotic tariffs to rapidly grow Nigeria’s economy, with the Chinese symbol “crisis” very much in my mind.

    • Tiko Okoye – Abuja 08054103468
  • Ribadu: Has insecurity reduced by 90% in Nigeria?

    Ribadu: Has insecurity reduced by 90% in Nigeria?

    • By Zayyad I. Muhammad

    Nigeria’s National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, recently claimed that the country has recorded over 90% improvement in security under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. He made this assertion in Jos, Plateau State, during a press briefing following a strategic meeting with the commander of Operation Safe Haven, Major General Folusho Oyinlola. The meeting was convened after a deadly gunmen attack on the Bokkos community, which tragically claimed the lives of hundreds of residents.

    Ribadu’s statement, given the context of recent violence, sparked mixed reactions from across the political spectrum. Critics argue that the NSA’s comments are aimed at shaping public perception as politicking for 2027 general elections approaches. They view the remarks as part of a broader political narrative to build confidence in the administration. On the other hand, supporters commend Ribadu for leading an effective national security strategy, asserting that the improvements are tangible and worth acknowledging.

    However, beyond partisan sentiments and political interests, it is essential to examine Ribadu’s claim from an objective standpoint, grounded in verifiable data and realistic context. Security issues are too critical to be reduced to rhetoric, hey must be measured by real outcomes that affect the lives of everyday Nigerians.

    Regardless of our political leanings, there have been undeniable improvements in some of Nigeria’s most dangerous zones. For example, the Birnin Gwari–Lagos highway in Kaduna State, which was shut for nearly a decade due to the menace of armed bandits, has now reopened to motorists, especially heavy-duty vehicles that previously avoided the route. The once-abandoned Birnin Gwari cattle market, inactive for over 10 years, is now gradually returning to life with commercial activity.

    Similarly, the Abuja–Kaduna highway, previously infamous for rampant kidnappings and ambushes, is now operational 24 hours under constant military and police surveillance. Other major highways, such as the Kaduna–Kano expressway and the Jos–Akwanga–Lafia–Abuja corridor, now also witness 24-hour vehicular movement, marking a sharp contrast to the fear and hesitation that characterized travel in these areas just a few years ago.

    Still, it’s important to remember that security is both delicate and dynamic. A full year of relative peace can be overshadowed by a single horrific incident. Groups like Boko Haram, ISWAP, and various bandit factions, such as the Lakurawa and Ansaru cells, still carry out attacks on soft targets in rural and semi-urban areas. While the overall frequency and scale of these attacks may be decreasing, their sporadic nature continues to pose serious challenges.

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    Between 2022 and 2024, several Nigerian security and intelligence agencies have reported significant gains. The Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) indicated a 65% reduction in overall crime and criminality nationwide since May 2023. This figure is based on cumulative data from military operations, police reports, and inter-agency assessments.

    The Department of State Services (DSS), particularly in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), recorded a significant decline in high-profile crimes, including kidnappings, armed robberies, and terrorist threats, through 2023 and into early 2024.

    The Nigeria Police Force also published extensive data on its security efforts: between 2023 and early 2024, police operations led to the arrest of 30,313 suspects linked to serious crimes such as kidnapping, armed robbery, cultism, and banditry. In the same period, 1,984 illegal firearms were recovered, along with 23,250 rounds of ammunition. Additionally, 1,581 kidnapped victims were successfully rescued across various states.

    The proliferation of small arms and light weapons has long fuelled Nigeria’s insecurity. However, between 2022 and 2024, the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCCSALW) recorded historic achievements. In February 2023, the centre announced that it had recovered more than 10,000 small arms and light weapons from non-state actors during nationwide disarmament operations. By February 2024, the total number of retrieved weapons had increased to 20,000 firearms and over 60,000 units of ammunition.

    Furthermore, in September 2024, the NCCSALW undertook the destruction of 30,132 recovered weapons, ranging from decommissioned and unserviceable arms to illicitly owned firearms.

    The Nigerian Armed Forces, particularly the army, have recorded notable achievements over the past three years. Between 2022 and 2025, military operations led to the neutralization of more than 8,034 terrorists across various theatres of operation, including the Northeast, Northwest, and North-central regions. In February 2024 alone, 105 terrorists were eliminated and 140 arrested during targeted counterterrorism operations.

    A total of 6,376 kidnapped victims were rescued from insurgent enclaves and bandit hideouts in 2024 alone, thanks to joint operations involving the Nigerian Army, Nigerian Air Force, and local vigilante groups. These successes have contributed significantly to restoring public confidence in the state’s ability to respond to threats.

    Additionally, by December 2024, the Nigerian military had dismantled numerous terrorist camps and degraded operational capabilities of insurgent groups in several flashpoints. More than 20 high-profile bandit leaders and commanders were eliminated in precision operations.

    These individuals had long terrorized communities, operated illegal taxation systems, and masterminded large-scale abductions. Their deaths signal a turning point in Nigeria’s war against insecurity—at least in the short to medium term.

    Critics, supporters, and objective observers alike hold valid perspectives on Ribadu’s claim. Security cannot be judged solely by statistics or isolated incidents—it must be assessed holistically, with a view to sustainability. While it would be inaccurate to declare total victory over insecurity, the data and field reports suggest that Nigeria is making measurable, strategic progress.

    As Nigeria continues to grapple with complex internal threats, public expectations remain high. Citizens want not just temporary relief but long-term stability. Ribadu’s statement may be politically timed, but the figures back up his assertion, at least in terms of trend and direction. Whether or not one agrees with the 90% figure, one thing is clear: the tide appears to be gradually turning in favour of the state. The challenge now is to sustain these gains, institutionalize reforms, and ensure that security is not just perceived, but lived—by every Nigerian, in every part of the country.

    •Muhammad writes from Abuja.

  • Olunloyo: Genius without knowledge boundary

    Olunloyo: Genius without knowledge boundary

    By Olabode Lucas

    The late Dr. Victor Omololu Olunloyo who died on Sunday, April 6, just a week before he turned 90 years was without doubt one of the most talented and versatile Nigerians. During his life, his talents shone brightly in academics, public service, public discourse, policy formulations and humaneness predicated on the Biblical injunction of ‘love thy neighbour.’

    The late Olunloyo showed his prodigious academic talents early in life at the Government College Ibadan, where he had a brilliant academic record. I am reliably informed by people who attended this prestigious secondary school that up till now they rate the late Olunloyo and the late Adegoke Adelabu, the stormy petrel of Western Region politics of the fifties as the two best two students that had attended the school. The late Olunloyo had a brilliant university education at St. Andrew University, Scotland. In this university, he got a first-class degree in Mechanical Engineering followed two years later with a Ph.D. degree in Applied Mathematics and Number Theory. He was only 25 years old when he got the Ph.D. degree.

    After successfully obtaining his degrees in Scotland, Olunloyo came back to lecture at the formidable Department of Mathematics at the University of Ibadan.  At that time, the department was staffed by egg-heads like Chike Obi, Olubunmo, and Lesley and later by brilliant young lecturers like Tejumola, Sowunmi, and Kuku. However, before Olunloyo could settle down in the department, he had a national call to join the emergency administration of Dr. Koye Majekodunmi in the Western Region following the bitter Action Group crisis in that region in 1962. He was made Commissioner for Special Duties in that administration which ended after six months. The brilliant performance of the Olunloyo in this assignment brought him into national consciousness as a go-getter.

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    The profile of the late Olunloyo rose significantly during the military administration of General Adeyinka Adebayo which was in place in the Western State between 1967 and 1971. In the cabinet of General Adebayo, Olunloyo would be remembered by all and sundry for his sterling performances, first as Commissioner of Education and later as the Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs.

    As Commissioner of Education, Olunloyo helped to sanitize the operations of private secondary schools that littered the state at that time. These substandard secondary schools were set up by unscrupulous proprietors who turned these schools into money spinning ventures instead of being citadels for learning and knowledge. He instilled fears into the proprietors by threatening to close down their schools if they failed to adhere to the minimum standard required for setting up a normal secondary school. He also threatened some of the owners of the schools with litigation for illegally extorting the students. To achieve his aim of bringing order to these schools, Olunloyo used unorthodox methods such as visiting the offending schools with a large contingent of police and also with his aged mother who he used as ‘scarecrow’. His methods of intimidating these illegal school proprietors worked and today some of these private schools that survived, such as Renascent High School, Agugu, Ibadan, are now top secondary schools in the state. The imprint of Olunloyo as the Commissioner of Education was equally felt at the International School of the University of Ibadan which was then an exclusive elitist school under an expatriate principal. He changed the exclusiveness of the school without lowering its standard as he brought a top class Nigerian educationist, the late Venerable Iluyomade to be the principal of the renowned school in 1968. Since that time, the school had combined its undiminished international outlook with local needs.

    To many of my generation from the then Western State, Olunloyo would forever be a hero for initiating the policy of General Adebayo administration that allowed those of them at the university to have free university education during the period of the civil war. This was before the federal government crash programme was implemented.

    The late Olunloyo’s stint as the Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs was equally memorable and historic. On taking over the ministry, he met the intractable problem of ascension to the throne of Alaafin of Oyo. The leading candidate then for the throne was Prince Olayiwola Adeyemi who for historic reasons was not favoured by the leading and entrenched political interest in the region at that time despite the fact he was more or less the unanimous choice of the kingmakers (the Oyomesi). As the commissioner, Olunloyo again displayed his knack for solving knotty problems not only as a mathematician but as an administrator. Under him as the commissioner in charge of chieftaincy affairs, Prince Olayiwola Adeyemi became the 45th Alaafin of Oyo in 1970 and Oba Adeyemi had a very remarkable reign of almost 52 years.

    Olunloyo left the administration of Western State with Governor Adebayo in 1971, and an appreciative Governor Adebayo appointed him as the first rector of the newly restructured Polytechnic Ibadan so that he could redirect his energy again to academics which was his first calling. However, the succeeding administration of Brigadier Oluwole Rotimi cancelled the appointment for reasons best known to the administration. There was no doubt that the long stay of Olunloyo  in the government of General Adebayo affected his academic progression in the university and so he could not attain the promotion to the level of professor which he deserved with his prodigious talents. As it is not possible to cover the rays of the sun, General Olusegun spotted Olunloyo and made him the Executive Secretary of National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA) which was the agency that administered all the research institutes in the country then. It was here our paths crossed when he helped without knowing me from Adams, to cross from the Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research, Benin, to the University of Ibadan where, by the grace of God my career blossomed. I will forever be grateful to him for coming to my aid at a critical stage in my career despite stiff opposition.

    Olunloyo’s foray into partisan politics came equally with a bang when he contested the 1983 Oyo State gubernatorial election under the platform of NPN.  His opponent at the election was the incumbent, the formidable Chief Bola Ige of UPN who was his colleague in the military administration of the then Western State. The campaign for the election was bitter and tense. There was general insecurity in the state as there were riots, burning of houses with a lot of bloodshed and mayhem. On the eve of the election, people were killed in Ibadan and Ilesa and so the results of elections from these two big towns were cancelled in the final collation of the results of the election. Olunloyo was eventually declared the winner of the election by the electoral body and many people felt that the declaration did not reflect the wishes of the people. Despite this general feeling, the electoral tribunal upheld the result of the election. Olunloyo eventually became the governor Oyo State albeit for a very short period from October to December 1983 when the military took over power again.

    Olunloyo was an enigma and a very talented and versatile individual. Apart from his academic disciplines of mathematics and engineering, Olunloyo had good knowledge and appreciation of arts, good wines and music. Many people referred to him as a walking encyclopaedia. He was at home with the literary works of English writers such as William Shakespeare, John Keats, John Milton as well as those of iconic Yoruba writer, D. O. Fagunwa. In music, Olunloyo cherished and appreciated the music of Mozart, Beethoven, Bach and other classical musicians.  In fact, Olunloyo was an all-round genius with no knowledge boundary. It is to the eternal credit of Oyo State government that he was given a deserved honour at the twilight of his life.

    •Prof Lucas writes from Old Bodija, Ibadan.