With the recent passing away of former President Muhammadu Buhari, a northern political icon, the region faces a power vacuum, shifting loyalties, and the search for new leadership rooted in both integrity and performance. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines what this development portends politically, and how it would impact the next general election in 2027
The end of an era
When Muhammadu Buhari died on July 13, 2025, in London at the age of 82, it marked not just the passing of a man but the sunset of a political era. For millions of ordinary northerners—the Talakawa who live from hand to mouth—Buhari was more than Nigeria’s former president. He was a symbol. A living embodiment of discipline, piety, and incorruptibility.
In their eyes, he was the leader who rose from Daura to the highest office in the land without compromising his values. To them, Buhari was Sai Baba—a phrase that wasn’t just chanted but deeply felt. His funeral procession in Katsina attracted mourners from across the North: farmers, traders, clerics, and students. For them, his death was personal.
Thus, Buhari was more than a politician; he was an embodiment of a political mythos that resonated uniquely with the masses of the North. His death leaves a multidimensional vacuum unlikely to be filled in the near term.
This is because of what he represented to the Talakawa. Buhari’s enduring appeal was not based on dazzling oratory or groundbreaking policies. It was about trust. The man who wore simple babanriga, kept his circle tight, and preached integrity was seen as one of them. His 2015 election win—the first time a sitting president was defeated in Nigeria—was carried on the shoulders of this trust.
As a result, he commanded a cult-like mass following of about 12 million loyal voters; Buharists who saw him as Mai Gaskiya (the honest one) or the incorruptible saviour of the poor. Even after stepping down as president, his Daura and Kaduna homes became political pilgrimage sites. Knowing that his endorsement could influence votes in the North, coalition builder and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, ex-Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai, and others sought his symbolic support.
In all the political parties he was associated with since becoming a born-again democrat—including the All People’s Party (APP), the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and the All Progressives Congress (APC)—Buhari consistently delivered bloc votes from the North.
Saint or scapegoat?
However, the late Muhammadu Buhari left behind a mixed legacy. While he launched high-profile anti-corruption probes and recovered stolen funds, critics accused his administration of selective justice.
In security, despite military gains against Boko Haram insurgents in the Northeast, insecurity across the country has mutated. A new wave of banditry and kidnapping surged across the Northwest, North-Central, and beyond.
Besides, Buhari presided over two recessions, high inflation, and a weakened naira—conditions that intensified rural hardship. His administration also faced criticism for suppressing dissent and imposing internet restrictions.
Still, to many in the North, these faults were forgivable—because he didn’t enrich himself. He stood as proof that not all politicians are crooks.
The succession struggle
Without Buhari’s leadership, northern politics risks fragmentation. With his death, who now speaks for the Talakawa? Who channels the moral compass he once provided?
Since nature abhors a vacuum, another leader may eventually emerge to galvanise the region politically. For now, however, the dilemma remains: Should the North rally around a singular moral successor, or build a collective ideological framework rooted in Buhari’s values?
As various observers have noted, there can be no immediate successor in Buhari’s mould. Nevertheless, symbolic leadership still matters. A figure—or movement—rooted in simplicity, service, and sacrifice could command loyalty across ethnic and party lines.
Yerima Shettima, President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), said the North is yearning for a qualified person to step into Buhari’s shoes. His words: “Our people look for integrity, not flashy politics. Whoever walks Buhari’s path, they will follow.”
Dr. Amina Aliyu, a political historian at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna State, said, “Buhari had his flaws, but he gave us a psychological reference point for leadership. The question now is whether anyone can inspire that kind of loyalty again.”
Bashir Tofa Jr., son of the late 1993 National Republican Convention (NRC) presidential candidate, warned that Buhari’s legacy should not be hijacked by opportunists. “Northern integrity must remain a compass, not a campaign slogan,” he said.
For Hauwa Ibrahim, an Abuja-based civil society activist and policy analyst, rhetoric is no longer enough. “Northern youth now want competence more than nostalgia. That’s the shift,” she said. The North, she argues, requires leaders capable of tackling urgent issues: youth unemployment, insecurity, education, and economic inclusion.
Contenders for the mantle
Among the names being floated as potential successors are Vice President Kashim Shettima, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-governors Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Nasir El-Rufai.
Others not in the national limelight—such as longtime Buhari loyalist and former Customs boss Hameed Ali, and Senator Abdulaziz Yar’Adua, younger brother of the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua—have also been mentioned.
Yet, no figure matches Buhari’s (real or perceived) reputation for integrity. Buhari’s austere lifestyle and military background made him a moral archetype. By contrast, El-Rufai is mired in controversies; Atiku carries corruption perceptions; and Kwankwaso’s appeal remains largely confined to Kano.
Shettima combines national exposure with northern roots. He is articulate, disciplined, and seen as loyal to Buhari’s ideals. But critics question his autonomy, especially amid rumours he may be replaced as Tinubu’s running mate in 2027.
So, who will lead the North when the campaign for the 2027 general election begins?
No second coming
In the short term, no one will emerge as a “Buhari”—because his moral authority was built over decades of service and asceticism. He unified northern factions through coalition-building and commanded loyalty despite economic challenges.
Chief Chekwas Okorie of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) believes Atiku Abubakar may play a major role in the next election. “As things stand, Atiku appears to be enjoying the backing of many of Buhari’s foot soldiers,” he said.
Though Atiku may not enjoy the same cult following, Okorie believes he could influence northern sentiment. “Whether this would translate to victory remains to be seen,” he cautioned.
Okorie further pointed out that Buhari-era appointees now aligned with the emerging African Democratic Congress (ADC)—where elements from the defunct CPC and defectors from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are teaming up to challenge the ruling party—have the means to pursue their ambitions. However, he warned that Atiku ‘cannot be another Buhari’.
“Regarding the issue of corruption, you mentioned, elite concerns about corruption don’t always shape voter behaviour. Sadly, it’s often ethnic consciousness and grassroots loyalty that determine outcomes,” he said.
Okorie concluded that a new set of leaders—with different characteristics—is likely to emerge. “Northerners tend to rally around those who have the wherewithal. They believe God chooses those He anoints.”
The splintered house of Buhari
Already, Buhari’s base has started splintering ahead of the next general election. Dr. Naseer Kura Ja’afaru, a former lecturer at the Federal College of Education (FCE), Kano, says northerners have mixed feelings about Buhari’s death, and that anyone trying to use his death to campaign during the next general election may not succeed.
“On the one hand, he enjoyed immense goodwill. On the other hand, he lost it during his civilian presidency due to economic and security failures,” he said.
Policies like border closure, escalating banditry, and cattle rustling alienated even his home base in Katsina. “You might recall a viral video showing youths in Katsina celebrating his death—an unsettling reflection of lost goodwill,” he noted.
Dr. Ja’afaru, also a pro-democracy activist, believes no current northern leader can step into Buhari’s shoes. “He cannot have a successor because no one has demonstrated the capacity to do so.”
Instead, he says future leaders will emerge circumstantially, depending on their ability to address public needs. He added, “Figures like Atiku, El-Rufai, and Kwankwaso carry too much baggage. They cannot embody the Buhari phenomenon.”
ADC: from fringe to frontline
The ADC, once a minor party, has emerged as a serious opposition contender. Its evolution into a political home for ex-CPC elements and Atiku-led PDP defectors has been rapid, if rocky.
Positioning itself as the custodian of Buhari’s grassroots ideals, the ADC aims to consolidate northern votes. However, internal lawsuits and factional disputes threaten its unity. As ex-APC chieftain Salihu Lukman admits, the party still lacks a rallying figure of Buhari’s stature.
Meanwhile, CPC veterans like Tanko Al-Makura, who remain within the APC, are expected to shore up support for Tinubu. However, analysts say they lack the mass appeal required to succeed in that role.
Can the APC rebuild without its northern pillar?
Buhari was the APC’s northern backbone. Without him, the party must reinvent itself or risk losing its base.
Experts urge the APC to reframe the CPC legacy, not revive it. Emphasising core values like discipline, accountability, and grassroots engagement can help re-establish ideological footing.
The party could elevate voices like Shettima and other reform-minded northern governors, and more importantly, reach out to the Talakawa through direct engagement: economic empowerment, security reform, and education.
Institutionalising Buhari’s values through think tanks or foundations might also ground the party symbolically.
For younger northerners, Buhari’s legacy is fading. Hafsat Sani, a 22-year-old Political Science student at the Bayero University Kano, summed it up: “Our parents loved Buhari because they believed in his honesty. However, we want leaders who can give us jobs, security, and hope. Honesty without performance is not enough.”
Senior Special Assistant to the President on Research and Analytics, Gimba Kakanda, shares this view. The North, he says, is shifting from personality cults to issue-based politics. “Younger voters no longer seek redeemers. They want substance of vision. Politicians must approach them with humility, not messianic arrogance.”
Conclusion: legacy for the strongest
The 2027 election will likely feature fragmented northern votes, with both ADC and APC competing for the remnants of Buhari’s base.
True successors will be those who tackle the North’s crises—insecurity, poverty, and educational decline—not those who merely invoke Buhari’s name.
As one analyst put it: Buhari’s legacy now belongs to the strongest. But the arena is crowded, and the throne is empty.
