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Category: Politics

Can 492 wise men fix Nigeria?

Four hundred and ninety-two delegates are participating at the national conference in Abuja. But, will the report of the conference see the light of the day? Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU revisits past attempts at resolving the national question and how successive administrations aborted the goal through hypocritical commitment.

Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) will be aglow with festivities on March 17. Four hundred and ninety-two delegates to the national debate will get the mandate of President Goodluck Jonathan to discuss the problems of Nigeria. Many of them would be accompanied by their relations, friends and associates. They will draw allowances. Since it is a paid job, observers point out that they are not going to render a totally selfless service.

The eminent Nigerians are not attending a Sovereign National Conference (SNC), but a ‘national dialogue’ with limited powers. The conference is fashioned out in the image of the Jonathan Administration. The Secretary to the Federal Government, Senator Pius Ayim, has disclosed that there will be ‘no-go areas’. The unity of Nigeria, he warned, is non-negotiable. The legal backing for the exercise is not clear. The Chairman of the conference, Justice Idris Kutigi (rtd), and delegates from the six geo-political zones are not empowered by the any act of the National Assembly to meet for three months. At the end of the deliberation, it is not clear that the report will be subjected to a referendum.

The acrimony between the ruling and opposition parties may shape the proceedings at the conference. The conference is taking place at a time of national distress. The fragile federal country is enveloped in anxiety and uncertainty. Insecurity, electoral terrorism, infrastructural decay, power outage, bad roads, corruption, and now, fuel scarcity, have provoked outrage. Although Nigeria has just celebrated 100 years of the amalgamation, the mistake of 1914 still hunts the amalgam of incompatible tribes. Foremost legal scholar and former university don, Prof. Itsey Sagay (SAN), observed that, since the wrong step was taken by Lord Fredrick Lugard, the North and South have never resolved two discords. These are the disagreement over power sharing, especially the Presidency, and distribution of the national revenue. The North has always wanted to keep the Presidency and the South has been resisting the idea, he said.

However, the national question, according to pro-national conference crusaders, may not be restricted to the fight over the federal power and control of resources. How should power rotate between the North and South? Should oil-producing states have the largest share of proceeds from the resources? But, the fundamental question extends to how the component units under the lopsided federal structure have fared. Thus, there are puzzles: Should there be state police? Is the Land Use Act not due for review? Which tier of government should create and control the local government? If a region wants to have a railway, is it permitted by the Railway Act of 1955? Why should the distant Federal Government control 55 per cent of the national revenue, leaving 45 per cent for 36 states and 774 councils? Is devolution of power foreclosed? How can the indigene/settler rift be constitutionally settled?

Yet, opinion is still divided on the desirability of the dialogue. A section of Nigerians believes that it is a decoy and jamboree. In their view, since the President, who had opposed the conference, suddenly retraced his step, there is cause for suspicion. The opposition is of the opinion that Dr. Jonathan is trying to shore up the battered image of his administration. But, those who seem to have confidence in the project point out that the men of integrity attending the conference would make a difference. Analysts have suggested that many delegates have actually contributed to the problems confronting the beleaguered country as bad civilian rulers and collaborators of past military regimes. Also, the delegates cannot tap much from past experience, since previous attempts at constitutional conference were backed with hypocritical commitment by successive administrations. Thus, past attempts were discredited by a wider segment of the stakeholders, owing to legitimacy crisis.

Had the military concentrated efforts on its constitutional responsibility of defending the national territorial integrity, perhaps, the story would have been different. Between 1960 and 1966, major crises that threatened stability did not emanate from the federal structure. They were products of political intolerance among early regional leaders competing for federal power. Indeed, the three regions – North, West, Midwest and East – had a measure of autonomy. They operated separate constitutions. They had opportunities to make progress in an atmosphere of healthy competition. The formula for revenue sharing was agreed upon. It was based on principles of derivation, need and national interest. What the political leaders failed to address was the problems of the minorities, in spite of the popularity of the Willinkson Report. The military coup of 1966 obstructed the orderly political evolution.

A historian, Lateef Raji, recalled that whenever there was a change of government, the first priority was to put in motion a mechanism for ‘national talk’. The goal, he said, was to divert attention and achieve stability. “From Ironsi to Obasanjo, the scenario is the same. But, the report often ended in the dustbin”, he lamented. Raji said: “To avoid a repeat, the solution is that the people should own the process. This is where referendum is important”.

During the long military period, the dictators made some feeble efforts to re-order the society. But, the military rulers lacked the skill for the important assignment because they were not trained to rule. Civil rule was barely six years old when the military sacked legitimate authorities in 1966. But the new Head of State, Major-Gen. Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi, was a novice. He reluctantly set up a small Constitutional Study Group headed by the late Chief Rotimi Williams to identify the constitutional problems “in the context of one Nigeria.” But, as noted by a political scientist, Prof. Isawa Elaigwu, people lost confidence in his regime when he enacted a decree, which made Nigeria a unitary state.

Ironsi’s successor, Gen. Yakubu Gowon, also set up an adhoc Constitutional Conference. At that time, the country was engulfed in crisis and on the brink of disintegration. The military governors of the four regions-North, West, Midwest and East-nominated the regional delegates. Ethnic warlords, especially the displaced First Republic politicians, made the list. Nominations outside the banned political class were few. The majority of delegates had political affiliations. It was a rancorous meeting. Old wounds resurfaced as the politicians injected their bitter competition and regional projections into the conference processes. The regions were divided by their stiff competition for relevance and other antagonistic pursuits. Delegates from the North and East canvassed confederalism. The West, led by the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, insisted on federalism. Middlebelt and Lagos delegates supported the West. But they also called for the creation of additional states. Certain elements had created had created tension between the West and Lagos, leading to the “Lagos belongs to the West agitation.” The deliberations ended abruptly, owing to the disagreements. Later, the civil war broke out.

The late Gen. Muritala Muhammed took over from Gowon in 1975. He set up a 49-member Constitution Drafting Committee (NDC). Some of its members were handpicked by the government. The body was chaired by Williams. The draft produced by the it was tabled before a Constituent Assembly. One third of the members were appointed by the military regime. Although the assembly had two-third of elected delegates from the old provinces and newly created states, its recommendations were not binding on government. Following the submission of the report, the regime tinkered with it by making some fundamental alterations without further consultations with the peoples’ representatives.

The setting up of the NDC led to the revival of political activities. The 1979 Constitution was not without weaknesses. But, whenever tension arose between the Federal Government and states, the Supreme Court was always the next point of call. Nigeria was gradually building a strong political culture. However, the military drew the curtains on the Second Republic abruptly.

The military President, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, also set up another Constituent Assembly, which fashioned out the 1989 Constitution. It never saw the light of the day. A delegate was elected from each local government. But there were also government nominees. It paled into a wasted effort. Like the previous ones, the 1994 National Constitutional Conference set up by the late Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha, was a waste of time and resources. The conference lacked legitimacy. Many credible Southern politicians boycotted it in protest. Representation was based on the existing local governments and federal constituencies. Gen. Abacha also nominated his own delegates to the conference. The conference produced a constitution that was not promulgated or adopted. It is worthy of note, however, that during the conference proceedings, there was no single case of uprising in the Niger Delta. The militants were had hope that the conference would resolve their grievances.

However, historians believe that certain lessons can be learned from the moribund 1994 Conference. Its legacy is the current six zone structure. Prominent politicians who were delegates rubbed shoulders with the military by setting a terminal date for the military rule. It is therefore, the belief of some stakeholders that, since many patriotic Nigerians are delegates to the 2014 Conference, they will dwarf the delegates that may be planted into the conference to project a hidden agenda. When the Presidential Advisory Committee on National Conference led by Senator Femi Okurounmu was collating suggestions on conference modalities, a delegate to the 2005 conference, Olorunfunmi Basorun, said that representation was as important as the agenda. He added: “If the right people become delegates, they can begin to assert personality and, without fear and hindrance, put the national question on the front burner. That is, if the right people make the list of delegates.”

Political watchers have pointed out that past conferences were dogged by crises of representation. Reflecting on the flawed distribution of delegates, the Presidential Constitution Review Committee (PCRC) set up by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, noted that, “in spite of different approaches to constitution making in the colonial and post-colonial years, the various constitutions have not emanated from the full involvement of the Nigerian people. This has, in turn, generated extensive alienation from the various constitutions”.

The alienation of stakeholders in 1998/99 characterised the making of the defective 1999 Constitution. To ensure a rapid transfer of power from the military to civilians, the Justice Niki Tobi Constitution Debate Coordinating Committee (CDCC) was hurriedly set up by former Head of State Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, to organise a nation-wide consultations on the 1995 Draft Constitution produced by the Abacha Conference. The procedure, said the PCRC, was flawed, adding that the CDCC team only visited selected locations out of the 774 local governments to collate views for two months. “The committee was not structured and probably did not have resources and time to involve the civil society more intimately, hold the required consultation, build ownership around the processes and document, and use the constitution-making process to address the national question”. The PCRC also observed that the CDCC produced a draft that was approved, following amendments by the Military Council that failed to satisfy Nigerians, irrespective of class, gender, ethnic or religious groups.

Obasanjo’s National Political Reforms Conference (NPRC) also failed the test of legitimacy. Before setting it up, the former President had experimented with an ‘All Parties Committee for the Review of the 1999 Constitution’. Civil society groups criticised the committee, saying that it was undemocratic. When the Abuja Conference took off, it was made up of five delegates from each state nominated by the governors. For partisan reasons, some governors nominated their cronies and godfathers. The Federal Government also nominated some delegates. Government’s criteria for their nominations were not disclosed. Although the conference did extensive job, it collapsed on the later of the third term agenda.

As the Abuja Conference was holding, the Pro-National Conference Organisation (PRONACO) was holding an alternative peoples’ conference in Lagos. It was chaired by the late Chief Anthony Enahoro. The symbols of the civil society groups – Prof. Wole Soyinka, the late Beko Ransom-Kuti, and the late Prof. Jadesola Akande – prepared the ground. The aggrieved civil society groups, which claimed that they were excluded from the Abuja conference, nominated delegates to the conference. The most significant achievement of the Lagos conference was the recommendation on the restructuring of the country. They suggested a federal country of 18 regions or component units. PRONACO argued that the 18 nationality-based regions can serve as the federating units for a stable Nigeria. The report was ignored by the Federal Government.

What difference would the Jonathan Conference make? Will the report see the light of the day? Can the 492 wise men save Nigeria?

March 10, 2014
One conference, divergent issues

With the divergent issues on the agenda of the six geo-political zones for the national conference and the consensus parameter of 75 per cent, the confab may not differ from the ones before it, reports Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI.

In spite of the skepticism in many quarters, the six geo-political zones have articulated their agenda for the National Conference, which is scheduled to be inaugurated next week in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The timing of the conference and the modalities setting it up might not be the very best, but the various zones are not taking chances. Leaders of the zones have taken the initiative to fashion out an agenda to guide delegates representing the regions at the confab, which is expected to negotiate the continued co-existence of all ethnic nationalities in harmony.

However, given the 75 per cent consensus parameter set for the conference and the divergent issues being canvassed, the delegates would have a tough job on their hands, putting together a document that would satisfy the aspirations of the federating units.

Essentially, the positions of the zones in the southern part of the country are not at variance with one another. For instance, South-west leaders have agreed to put on the table for discussion what is dubbed as the ‘Yoruba Agenda’. Their position is as follows: they want the Yoruba federation to maintain its six-state structure, with boundary adjustment for Ekiti in Kwara to join Ekiti State, Igbomina and Ibolo in Kwara to join Osun State. They also proposing the Westminster parliamentary system of government, power devolution from the central to federating units, resource control and revenue allocation to be reviewed in accordance with derivation instead of being based on total revenue accruing to the Federation Account. Among other things, the South-west is proposing that immunity for elected officials should be limited to civil cases only. On policing, they want regional police to be given clearly defined roles and relationship with the federal police.

The South-west geo-political zone has been one of the most vociferous proponents of the national conference. Incidentally, the region, under the leadership of the main opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), had initially dismissed the proposed confab, saying the region would not participate because it is viewed as diversionary and waste of scarce resources. Interestingly, the party made a U-turn at the eleventh hour and indicated its readiness to partake in the dialogue. Ekiti State Governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi, said the APC states resolved to take part in the conference to protect the interests of their people, especially when President Goodluck Jonathan had declared that the Federal Government would nominate delegates for states that fail to do so. Each of the 36 states were expected to nominate three delegates.

The position of the South-east is not far from that of the South-west. According to Secretary General of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Dr Joe Nwaorgu, the agenda of the Igbo (South-east) for the conference is not different from what the Ohanaeze presented to the Senator Femi Okurounmu-led President Advisory Committee (PAC) on National Conference when it visited the South-east last October 27 and 29. His words: “We are prepared for the conference and we are determined to make it succeed. The issues we want resolved include: the structure of government-presidential or parliamentary, fiscal federalism, devolution of power, resource control, citizenship right, security of lives and property, and reparation over the continuous killing of our people and destruction of their property.”

Nwaorgu said the apex Igbo socio-cultural organisation picked 15 of the 30 delegates heading for the conference, while the governors nominated the rest with each of the five states having six slots. He added that the delegates were chosen in consultation with Igbo organisations affiliated to Ohanaeze such as the South-east People Development Association, Aka-Ikenga, Izu Umunna, Igbo Delegates Assembly and Igbos in Diaspora among others. “The heads of these organisations in consultation with us arrived at the list. Ohanaeze picked 15 delegates while the governors picked three delegates each,” he said.

In the same vein, the South-south geo-political zone, the chief revenue generator for the country, also wants restructuring, fiscal federalism and 50 per cent derivation. At the moment, derivation is a miserly 13 per cent. The South-south strongly believes that local communities and states where natural resources emanate should control their wealth by, at least, 50 per cent. The region argues that if this singular issue is resolved, the national atmosphere would be convivial.

Some ethnic nationalities and groups at the meeting where the above decision was arrived at, in Calabar, Cross River State recently, include: Ijaw National Congress, Oron ethnic nationality from Akwa Ibom State, South-south Peoples Assembly, South-south Peoples Forum and Efik Eburutu ethnic nationality. Governor Liyel Imoke, represented by his deputy, Efiok Cobham, said: “On derivation, our position aligns with the that of the entire South-South states to the effect that the constitution be amended to read that a state on whose territory oil (or other natural resources) are extracted or found be entitled to not less 50 per cent of the entire proceeds from the exploration and exploitation.”

Another South-south proposal calls for the curtailing of “the over-reaching powers of the federal government” and making the central government more accountable to the federating units over the handling and management of the nation’s financial outlay. “Powers should therefore be devolved and the Executive legislative list should be reviewed in order to transfer certain matters to the Concurrent List.”

All the geo-political zones in the south are in agreement that the outcome of the conference should never be subjected to scrutiny and review of the National Assembly as President Jonathan had proposed. This, they argue, would defeat the essence of the national discourse because members of the National Assembly would alter the resolutions of the conference. For the outcome not to become a subject of litigation later because it does not have a legal backing, many observers have proposed that there should be an Executive Bill to the National Assembly to enact an enabling law to legitimately back up the National Dialogue.

As a legal practitioner and chairman, Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), Ikeja Chapter, Monday Ubani, puts it: “My position has always been that the objectives of the national conference must be properly spelt out and that spelling out must be done through an act of the National Assembly.” He added that his recommendation even to the Femi Okurounmu-led committee was that “we must enact a law spelling out the modalities, the issues to be talked about and what to do with the outcome of the talk, so that we would know what we are dealing with.” He said constituting a national conference and leaving the conferees to determine the outcome is a recipe for disaster.

The North is also not left out of the preparations. The 19 northern states have articulated a 30-point agenda for the conference at their recent two-day meeting in Kaduna. The meeting was part of the governors’ legwork to ensure that the North speaks with one voice at the conference. Speaking on the agenda, Governor Babangida Aliyu of Niger State said the northern governors took a bold step at their just concluded meeting in Kaduna on the points to be presented at the conference and assured that the points would not in any way tamper with the unity and development of the country. “In our last meeting, we took a principled position to send our best and experienced people to the conference and this will include those who will be able to defend and discuss the issues without fear or favour, but which will not tamper with the unity and development of the country,” the governor remarked.

From all indications, the north has forged a united front going into the National Conference, but without any agenda or position. The Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, a vociferous northern socio-cultural organisation, appear to embody the views of the north, when it indicated recently that it is not comfortable with the holding of the conference, on the grounds that it would be unproductive, just like the previous ones before it. Nevertheless, it maintained that the north is ready to participate as stakeholders. National Publicity Secretary of ACF, Anthony Sani, who made the above declaration, said that those who were expecting the North to go to the confab with a common position or agenda, got it wrong. He added: “We didn’t initiate the idea of the confab, so we would only be attending as participants,” the ACF spokesman stated. Arguing that most northerners do not see any sense in having a national conference since the National Assembly is already in place, Sani noted with pessimism that the National Dialogue would end again as one of those exercises in futility. He stressed that the rest of the regions should know that the North would not support any debate on secession and matters that would divide the country, but those that would unite Nigerians as a people.

In contrast, the Middle Belt Forum headed by former Minister of Information, Jerry Gana, and former presidential candidate, John Dara, have said the position of their group would be political equality for all the ethnic nationalities in the country. In a press statement signed by its president, Gana and secretary, Dara, the group said: “We demand that this must not be reduced to a dialogue of only the major ethnic groups, but it should be a conference of all ethnic nationalities. Every ethnic group must have at least one representative before proportional seats allotted to the bigger ethnic groups and other interest.”

Northern governors have always disagreed with their southern counterpart in the past over issues like state police, resource control or derivation and the call for true federalism, with the former always resisting attempts to change the status quo. A public affairs analyst, Stanley Ologun, believes that since the north appears to have teamed up with the Federal Government, the stage is set for confusion at National Conference. His words: “The north seems to have settled for status quo that benefits only the Federal Government. The south as usual is divided into three and would be against the north and the Federal Government at the conference. The stage is set for confusion.”

March 10, 2014
Second term Namadi Sambo’s Cross

Vice President Namadi Sambo is fighting a tough political battle ahead 2015, reports Tony Akowe, Kaduna

The nomination of Mohammed Namadi Sambo, erstwhile governor of Kaduna State as Vice President, by President Goodluck Jonathan, following the vacuum created by the death of former President Umaru Musa Yar’adua, came to many as a surprise. But it marked a major change in the politics of Kaduna State as it paved the way for a Southern Kaduna man to be governor of the state for the first time.

That decision also paved the way for him to run with Jonathan as presidential candidates for the 2011 elections. Unfortunately however, he was unable to win any of the elections in his polling unit, ward and local government asthe opposition, Congress for Progressive Change emerged winner in all the elections.

Investigations revealed then that there may have been a gang-up against him by stakeholders in the area who felt that he has not been fair to them. One report have it that the elders in the area where Sambo lives vowed that he will never win election in his polling unit. Even though this could not be confirmed, the fact that he has lost all elections in that polling unit as well as ward, local government and state and National Assembly election there tends to prove the report right.

In recent times however, there appeared to be renewed moves to edge him out of office. The Nation learnt that such moves have never really ceased since 2011 elections. For example, we gathered that the supposed endorsement of Sambo to head Jonathan’s 2015 Declaration Committee has unsettled many people in the Jonathan camp.

Several names have been mentioned as likely replacement for Sambo as running mate to the President for the 2015 elections. Those whose names have been mentioned include Governors Sule Lamido of Jigawa State, Ibrahim Shehu Shema of Katsina State and Dr. Muazu Babangida Aliyu of Niger State. Although Shema has publicly announced that he was not interested in Sambo’s job, the other two have not made any comment on the rumour. It is widely believed that even though the other two governors were part of the splinter PDP which called itself New-PDP, their refusal to dump the party for the All Progressive Congress (APC) alongside their other colleagues may not be unconnected with the struggle to replace Sambo with one of them.

Some insiders allege therefore that Lamido and Shema may pose potential political threat to Sambo in view of their performance in their states and the fact that both governors are currently serving their second term and would not be eligible to contest the governorship in 2015. Governor Aliyu of Niger State is also another potential political threat.

But many believe that the working relationship between the President and Sambo is strong enough to earn him a return ticket with Jonathan. Ambassador Yusuf Mamman, former Nigerian Ambassador to Spain and spokesman of the Northern Elders Council, told The Nation that they believe there is the need for harmony and peaceful coexistence for democracy to thrive in the country.

He said: “First, I will say let us get to the bridge before we cross it. The President has not declared his stand but we in the Northern Elders Council believe there is the need for harmony, peaceful coexistence, democracy and development for Nigeria. Above all, we believe that the northern political culture has been such that when you say elders, they use moderated language and constructive engagement in the way and manner they articulate very serious national issues. We are not particularly happy with the fact that those who speak in a very ‘curse’ and belligerent posture tint the type of respectability which the northern elders and political leadership acquired over a long period of time. Don’t forget that the pluralism of the north has been a tendency that has multiplicity over time, right from the First Republic. The political leader of the north, as at today, is the Vice President, Namadi Sambo, and he enjoys a good working relationship with Mr. President. It is the belief of the council that this harmony, which our brother enjoys, should be supported and encouraged and that all men of good will from across the north should lend support to this good tag team to work in tandem and achieve greater harmony and cohesion”.

However, apart from people who are opposed to Jonathan’s plans to contest the 2015 elections, a decision that may affect Sambo, there is no doubt that he has a lot of work to do on the home front to gain the confidence of his people. There is also no doubt that the PDP in the state has been weakened by the defection of several key members to the APC. Even though leaders of the PDP in the state would not want to publicly admit the fact that there is a major problem within the party that needs urgent attention before the elections, the defection of majority of members of the Makarfi group within the party is a major setback that is capable of affecting the fortunes of the party in the state.

But one thing that is going for the Vice President however is the number of federal projects that Kadauna State and indeed the North-West has enjoyed from the present administration. For example, nine of the new Federal Universities established by the Jonathan administration are located in the north with four of them located in the North-West geopolitical zone. The universities are located in Gusua in Zamfara, Dutse in Jigawa, Dustin-Ma in Katsina and Birnin Kebbi in Kebbi states for the North-West, while the rest are located in Lafia in Nasarawa, Lokoja in Kogi, Kashere in Gombe, Wukari inTaraba and Gashua in Yobe State.

Kaduna State, which is Sambo’s home state, has also benefited tremendously from the Jonathan administration with several ongoing projects running into several billions of naira. For example, there is a multibillion fast rail track connecting Abuja to Kaduna in addition to the Galma Dam project, which is near completion aimed at providing raw water for the multipurpose Zaria water supply scheme, the Gurara Dam project, the Kudenda Power Project, among others. The completion of these projects will improve the economy of the state.

Zakari Sogfa, a former Commissioner for Justice in the state and National Coordinator of the Get It Right Nigeria, believes that Kaduna State has never had it so good under any government. Some believe that these projects are capable of increasing the rating of the Vice President back home.

Even though the decision on whether or not to retain Sambo as Vice President lies with Jonathan, it is evident that PDP leaders are afraid that PDP may lose Kaduna State. events tends to prove otherwise as PDP stakeholders in the state have failed to admit that there is a major threat to them posed specifically by the APC. The people of Southern Kaduna are no doubt key to retaining the state by the party as they have always voted enmasse for one party during elections. Isaiah Balat, one of the founding fathers of the party in the area and command lot of respect and has the ability to reach out to stakeholders in the area is no longer on the scene. Government is believed to be treating elders from the area with kids gloves and this has the potential of affecting the fortune of the party in the area. If this happens, it may be a major setback for Sambo. While the people may have decided to rally round Mrs. Lawrentia Mallam as Minister from the area, The Nation gathered that her nomination did not initially go down well with party faithful in the area. Unless the PDP is able to hold on to the votes coming from Southern Kaduna, they stand the risk of losing Kaduna and this will further put Sambo in tight corner.

Interestingly, Sambo and his aides have chosen to remain silent on the moves to edge him out as Vice President and get Jonathan to appoint another deputy. However, those against the Vice President are said to be uncomfortable with the recent visit of a delegation from Bayelsa state to Sambo. The delegation led by the state governor, Seriake Dickson and included prominent sons of Bayelsa state was said to have commended the Vice President for his total and unwavering loyalty to their son, President Jonathan. Sambo was quoted as telling the delegation that the confidence he receives from the president encourages him to do even more, saying “I want to assure you that I will personally continue to give my full support and loyalty to Mr. President. I also assure you that we will not allow anything to detract us. The Transformation Agenda of Mr. President is well on track. We will continue to work in the interest of Nigeria; we will continue to work as patriotic Nigerians and we will ensure that we deliver dividends of democracy to Nigerians.”

Before his death, Late Senator Isaiah Balat who was Sambo’s Adviser on Special Duties tends to have confirmed moves by some people to get the President replace Sambo as his running mate. In an article published by The Nation on Sunday of February 9, 2014, Balat said “while most of these political gamblers are already in the camp of the opposition and are surreptitiously working against the interest of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), they are still posturing as members, indeed leaders, of the ruling party and they would want the world to believe that they alone can deliver Kaduna to President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. And the plot they have devised is simply to denigrate the person of the Vice President in pursuit of their ambition. So desperate have these politicians become that, almost on a daily basis now, they invent stories about how “unpopular” the VP has become in the North just as they are now screaming themselves hoarse about the ‘dwindling fortunes’ of the PDP in Kaduna State. They persist because the VP would neither be distracted by the antics of those who do not wish the PDP and the Jonathan administration well nor join issues with political time-servers who would want to drag him down with them. Yet there should be a limit to the kind of dirty politicking that is becoming a daily feast now as we move towards the 2015 general elections”.

The next few months will be very crucial in the politics of Kaduna and indeed the north as politicians battle to outdo each other. The decision by the President to contest or not to contest will also be very crucial and has a lot to do with whether Sambo will remain in the corridors of power as Vice President or not. Sambo has no doubt been a loyal follower of the President and even though many believe that he is not aggressive enough, it is important to say that the President may not need any deputy for now who will rock the boat.

March 9, 2014
Factors and actors in the Ekiti election (1)

Barely three months to the Ekiti State governorship election, the attention of democrats are now riveted on the political scene in that rural, but important Western State. The state has gained more importance since Dr. Kayode Fayemi mounted the saddle as governor in 2010. Prior to that game-changing event, it had always been in the news for all the wrong reasons. Murder, believed to be politically motivated, was rife. Brigandage was the name of the game. The people counted for nothing as the elite jostled for power, the scarce resources available and relevance.

I have been to Ekiti and have seen the incredible performance of the incumbent administration. I have interacted with neutral Ekiti people who have no reason to colour their assessment of the government. I am fairly familiar with the state that shares boundary with my state, Osun; and cultural affinity with my people-the Ijesa. If as in every election it could be said that the incumbent decides to win or lose, on the count of work done, the Fayemi government deserves to be returned by the electorate. The major issue or factor in any election ought to be performance. If this were the sole criterion, the election would be a walk-over; an academic exercise and the governor would merely be awaiting coronation.

But, it is not certain if performance is even the most important issue in Nigerian elections. Chief Bisi Akande was an achiever by any standard as governor of Osun State, but he lost. The NPN army ran riot all over the country in 2003 and snatched victory in states like Oyo and Kaduna despite the performance of the UPN and PRP administrations. In Ondo, the attempt to rig in the NPN led to protests and riots.

In many states, the ethnic factor is very strong. This may not be important in Ekiti as the people are of the same stock. In its place, the artificial division into senatorial zones is being propped up. Some have contended that the Central zone has no business contending this time as it produced the first civilian governor, Chief Niyi Adebayo and his successor, Ayo Fayose.

The incumbent is from the North. It is therefore contended that the office be conceded to the South. Others think this is a cheap line. They argue that the division is too artificial to count for much. Besides, leaders and supporters of the All Progressives Congress (APC) say, if geo-political configuration should decide the election, then the North, too, should rule for eight years before any charter could cede it to the South.

A stronger factor is the party structure. Effectively, there are two political parties in the state- the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Before the electoral commission flagged off the race by releasing the timetable, Mr. Opeyemi Bamidele, a member of the House of Representatives, was touted a contender for the throne. He was apparently overrated and moved over to the Labour Party. It is however obvious now that the bid has failed to gain momentum. It appears even his backers in Abuja have seen the futility of investing on him. The state has thus reverted to the traditional two-party race.

It is a fact of history that the PDP dethroned the Alliance for Democracy in 2003. Many would contend that the election was rigged, but, it stood. Mr. Ayo Fayose was governor for four years on the PDP platform. He still enjoys the support of some common people, but is detested by the elite. He has lost much of the popularity he appeared to have enjoyed among the people owing to the Fayemi “wonder”. The Oni years recorded little achievements perhaps because the mandate was not freely given. For more than three years, the two parties moved from one court to the other and supplementary elections had to be held. During the period, the governor perched on a tight-rope and could not stand at ease. He could not plan and had to swim against the tide.

Anyone who takes time to study the demographics and political behaviour of the Ekiti would not be quick to dismiss the PDP. It remains a contender in the election.

However the ruling APC has a lot going for it. Performance is one; the personality of Governor Fayemi is another. He is widely acclaimed as a gentleman and one activist who came to power with solid credentials and has been true to his calling. He is a special breed and sometimes comes across as more of an administrator like the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo than a typical Nigerian politician. Before the 2011 legislative polls, many leaders of the progressive hue in the region were afraid that the governor could fail to hold that flank, but he disappointed them by leading the ACN to a landslide victory.

His party enjoys the control of the local and state levers of administration. For the purpose of the election, the councillors, local council chairmen, House of Assembly members, commissioners, National Assembly members and other appointees of the state government are automatic agents of the party. In enlightened self interest, they would work for the party’s victory.

It has, however, been observed that elections here are not won fair and square. Three major factors have been identified as deciding the direction to which the pendulum swings. They are the electoral commission, the Police and money. Since the federal government controls the Police which, in previous elections had been employed as an arm of the party in control of the federal government and there are legitimate grounds to suspect the neutrality of INEC, the Ekiti election could yet be more contentious than a fair analyst may see on the field.

March 9, 2014
‘No single zone can produce Delta governor’

Hyacinth Enuha, a former top financier of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Delta State, now an All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain, was recently elected the Chairman of the APC Anioma Leaders Forum in Delta State. In this interview with Associate Editor, Taiwo Ogundipe, Enuha spoke on Delta governorship race in 2015 and other national issues. Excerpts

What is the purpose of the APC Anioma Leaders Forum?

The purpose of the forum is to organise our people – we all belong to APC – so that we can speak with one voice and mobilise our people towards winning election, which is very important. With the formation of the forum, the leaders can go back to the grassroots, mobilise and assist people with finance as well as encourage them to come out and vote during the forthcoming election so that we can have an APC governor in Delta State.

You’ve been known to be a businessman all along, operating in politics only at the background, why are you now in active politics?

I’m essentially in politics so as to know how I can contribute to the welfare of the people. All my life, I have been in business, I have been blessed; I have been successful. Now I said, what is next? What am I going to do? So I thought I have been blessed, so, why not put back into the society from what God has blessed me with? I discovered the best is to get involved in influencing government policies at the local and the state levels and through that attract more developments into my area. And that has been my focus.

Some people believe the rich people should not dabble into politics like the case of M. K. O. Abiola. What do you think of this?

You must have heard of this popular saying, the children of the rich cannot sleep when the children of the poor are hungry. Everybody who has the opportunity to get involved and is not getting involved is not doing service to this country. Look at what happened in Liberia. That was how it started. The rich people did not care what was going on. They were comfortable in their mansions until all of a sudden, these same people that they ignored came to their houses and drove them away and occupied the houses, and the rich people became refugees. Who says it cannot happen here? Who ever knew that we’ll have a situation like Boko Haram? We were talking about it every time. They said this is Nigeria it cannot happen. We better begin to work hard to make sure it doesn’t happen, because if it does, it is the rich ones that will suffer most.

You were known to belong to PDP, why are you now in APC?

I was in PDP and I got fed up with their culture of impunity and money politics. They have a do or die approach to politics; to win at all cost. I’m not running for office; I’m not looking for money. All I want is good governance. So, I felt PDP is not a party for me. I left and joined ACN, which is now APC. And I have not regretted it at all.

What is the most attractive quality that you have found in APC beyond, as you claimed, being repelled by the PDP’s culture of impunity and money politics?

I always tell people, seek ye first the kingdom of result, all other things will be added unto you. Take a look at the governors and the states of the APC or the (defunct) ACN which I belonged to, and see how they have performed. Look at the example of Fashola particularly. If the constitution allows him to go for third term, people will return him unopposed. It is because of the result or achievement. If you go to Edo, Osun, Ogun, Ekiti and Oyo states, the reports I’m getting are the same; that these people are performing. What is it that is making them perform? It must be because of the policy that the leadership of the APC has put in place. So, I’m very positive that if APC gets into the national, we will see the same result.

One of the main criticisms against APC is that the party is not sensitive to religious balancing and that it is unduly tilted toward one religion. What do you have to say on this?

That is PDP propaganda. Go and look at the records of APC. Even this interim exco that we have is about 50-50 regarding both leading religions of Christianity and Islam. In the East especially, they’ve been lying that APC is a Moslem party and will impose Islam on the region. But people are not buying it. They will soon come up with a fresh propaganda against APC. It is their stock in trade, we should just disregard them.

In Delta State, there have been agitations from various ethnic groups to have the governorship seat zoned to their area. People from your group, the Aniomas are particularly vociferous. What is your take on this?

We, the Aniomas, have been in the forefront of the agitation that power should rotate. And everybody agrees. It’s just a question of how do we achieve this. Technically, I’m in support of zoning. Whether we like it or not, there is zoning at the national and local levels of any party. Even when they are doing congress, they zone the slots to different areas. I will not even call it zoning, I will prefer to call it balancing. There is nothing wrong in balancing so that everybody will have a sense of belonging. We can say it’s time for Delta North to also produce and we have qualified people from Delta North. I don’t believe that it’s a question of right but that of amicable balancing so that all of us will have a sense of belonging. That’s my own stand that it is time for Delta North to produce the next governor.

Why do you think that opportunity has eluded Delta North so far?

The opportunity had never really come, because the last time Uduaghan was running, we all said power must shift, but we didn’t say where it should shift to. So, when Uduaghan emerged, everybody agreed that power had shifted to the South. And as a matter of fact, I made contributions to his election and he was impressed and appreciative. He was expecting me to tell him my objectives in supporting him, and I told him I would never come to him for contract, I would never ask for political appointment. All I’m asking is that there must be good governance and when you finish, power must move to Delta North. He replied that there was no problem that power must rotate, which was an admission of agreement that power must move to Delta North. And since then, we have been friends. And he has always maintained that he is in agreement that power must move to the North. But everybody wants to play coolly. It is not a matter of noise that power must shift to a place, all of us must work together to realise that objective.

Who are the aspirants that have declared their intention from your area?

It is too early. 2015 is still far. We are going to be looking for the best. We won’t sacrifice that post on the altar of mediocrity. We want people to come out from the South, Central and North. At the end, when we have the best from North and Central; we will then begin to talk and discuss and try to balance.

Will the numerical strength not come into play concerning the zone that will eventually succeed?

The good thing about Delta is that no single zone can produce the governor. There must be support from other zones for the governor to emerge.

What advice would you give to APC at the national level to be able to come up with a candidate that would be marketable?

Personally, I believe that APC should present a candidate with proven leadership qualities.

Do you have any hope that the government of President Goodluck Jonathan will organise a free and fair election in 2015?

Well, I cannot speculate. We expect INEC should do its job. It is not a question of Jonathan, but a free and fair election. He is a contestant. So the onus is on INEC to ensure that we have free and fair election.

Do you think the efforts, utterances and the body language of INEC are suggestive of giving hope for a free and fair election?

I’m an optimist. Somehow I believe Jega means well. But he has to do more. Because Jega will not be on the field, and a lot of the problems come from the INEC officials at the local level. He has to ensure that the people there are held accountable and he should put in positions people who cannot be bought over.

What is your view on the manner the National Assembly leadership, especially the Senate, is handling the spate of defections by congress members?

Well, it is very clear. David Mark is somebody I respect. But you have to understand that he is under tremendous pressure from his party. There is nothing stopping people from moving. We should not make a mountain out of a molehill. People had been defecting before now. I remember our Senator Osakwe. He was in the Accord Party when he won the election. After some time, he defected to PDP. He was warmly received. PDP should not panic with recent defections. I believe that it is by divine intervention that APC has come to live. Now we will have two strong parties just like they have it in the west: Democrats and Republicans. There will be no monopoly. If APC comes into government, then after eight years, maybe PDP will take over. Everybody will wake up. People will be trying to outdo each other. And who would benefit: the people. So, the development should not be looked at as being bad. It should be welcome. After all, when it started, they thought it was going to be people moving from PDP to APC, but haven’t they seen it now that people are moving from APC to PDP too?

March 9, 2014
Nigeria’s hottest senate seats

Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, identifies some of the hottest senate seats for the 2015 elections.

The campaign for the 2015 senatorial election has not begun officially, but in some senatorial districts, the heat is already too intense.

Though most of the affected districts include areas where the second term governors are plotting to displace unwilling serving senators, there are also other districts that will be hot zones mainly because the leading political parties in the state have many powerful aspirants jostling to fly their flags for the senatorial seats, or because some particular top politicians are too desperate to claim such seats for themselves or any of their loyalists.

At the last count, almost 13, out of the 19 second-term governors, are allegedly oiling their political machinery in preparation to run for senate seats in 2015. As would be expected, these moves have heightened the political tension in the senatorial zones, thus marking them out as some of the hottest senatorial seats in 2015 elections.

The Nation investigation shows that while most of the supporters of the serving senators have resolved to fight the governors concerned, only very few are, as at today, willing to consider any form of settlement. Some of the well-known cases, according to insiders, are insisting on swapping positions with their governors, an option, some of the governors may not be able to guarantee.

Where, as a result of existing or declared zoning arrangement, this option seems very difficult or impossible for the governor, hardline aides of the concerned senators are saying their principal should slug it out with the governors at the primaries. Some have also threatened that if they are manipulated out in the party primaries, they will defect to the most viable opposition party in the state in order to face the governor at the election proper.

So, considering the clout of some of the senators, the tricky political realities that have marked the zones out and the ability of other aspirants to make a sustained fight, observers expect hot contests at such senatorial elections.

Some of the outgoing governors that have publicly indicated interest to retire at the senate after completing their terms as executive governors in 2015 include Sullivan Chime of Enugu; Theodore Orji of Abia; Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom and Martins Elechi of Ebonyi.

Other outgoing governors, who may not have declared their intentions publicly, but have shown deep interests in their zone’s senate seats, include Gabriel Suswam of Benue; Liyel Imoke of Cross River; Emmanuel Uduaghan of Delta and Usman Saidu Dakingari of Kebbi.

As for Isa Yuguda of Bauchi, Babangida Aliyu of Niger, Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano; Sule Lamido of Jigawa and Ibrahim Shehu Shema of Katsina. Observers are still studying their complex dance steps to determine whether or not they would eventually go to the red chamber at the National Assembly.

Some of the hottest seats:

Except other factors come out to alter existing permutations, it seems Benue North-East Senatorial seat will be one of the hottest seats in the 2015 senatorial elections. This is mainly because out-going Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State is determined to take the seat, currently occupied by former PDP National Chairman, Senator Barnabas Gemade.

While most of the other serving governors are still keeping their senatorial ambitions secret, Suswam is one of the first to publicly declare his interest in the Benue North-East seat.

For Gemade, a member of the PDP Board of Trustees and the party’s NEC, Suswam’s plot is enough threat to dump the PDP for the APC. This threat, we learnt, is the root cause of deep political tension both in the senatorial zone and the state.

This is because, notwithstanding the likely effect of the power of incumbency and claims of the ruling PDP that the party is very strong in the state, observers say the PDP is worried that if the APC fields an influential candidate in the senatorial zone, Suswam may not be able to win the election, and if that happens, the leadership of the ruling party in the state may have been finally broken.

Senate President David Mark’s Benue South Senatorial District’s seat is another seat that would be hotly contested for in 2015. Given that talks about Mark’s presidential or governorship ambitions are yet to be confirmed, there is a popular view that the fourth term senator would most likely go for a historic fifth term tenure in 2015.

Given his vantage position as Senate President, Mark is politically very powerful and influential enough to contest for any elective position.

But for the Benue South Senatorial seat in 2015, observers say it may not be an easy task this time. Insiders say, Mark may be challenged for the office by a long time close associate, Chief Mike Onoja.

Also, the All Progressives Congress (APC), under the leadership of former governor George Akume, appears set to effectively take the zone and the state.

Some of the frontline APC aspirants for the Benue South Senatorial seat, like Madaki Ameh, have made the so-called Idoma dream one of the major issues to tackle Mark with. Observers say the Senate President, if he comes out, will have to answer many questions if he hopes to retain the seat. As the National Assembly leader, Mark understandably has many political enemies that will prefer to retire him.

This, however, promises to be a tough political battle, given Mark’s well oiled political machinery which has, for the fourth time he contested, been challenged unsuccessfully by strong opponents like General Lawrence Onoja (Rtd) and Alhaji Usman Abubakar, aka Young Alhaji.

Our investigation shows that Sokoto North Senatorial District is also one of the interesting zones where the 2015 senatorial election is most likely to be hot. This notion is fired by the claims that Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko has concluded plans to take over the senatorial seat currently occupied by Senator Ahmed Mohamed Maccido.

Senator Maccido, son of the late Sultan Muhammadu Maccido, is the only senator from the North-West state that failed to join Wamakko, when he and the others dumped the PDP for the APC.

Sources say the PDP leadership is very desperate to ensure that Maccido continues to fly the party’s flag in the zone.

But if the claim that Governor Wamakko wants to run for the office under the APC is true, keen observers say the PDP may meet a brick wall in its bid to retain the seat.

For the Enugu-West Senatorial District’s seat, now occupied by the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, the battle will also be tough if Governor Sullivan Chime makes good his threat to take the seat from Ekweremadu, without breaking the alleged zoning formula to swap positions.

For over a year now, the two powerful politicians have been engaged in a power tussle, with Ekweremadu accusing the governor of sabotaging his constituency projects to make way for eventual takeover of his seat at the red chamber of the senate in 2015.

If the two go for the primaries, it will be an interesting scenario but the matter remains hazy, given Sulivan’s health reports and the doubt that he may not run after all.

In Cross River Central Senatorial District, the scenario is the same. There, Cross River State Governor Liyel Imoke is said to be interested to take over the zone’s seat, currently occupied by the Senate Leader, Senator Victor Ndoma-Egba, who is in his third term in the upper chamber and is determined to return for the fourth term.

Speaking to newsmen during the week, Ndoma-Egba, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, said, “I am not, however, desperate. If I do not go back for the fourth term, I can still go back to my lucrative law practice.

“But in this case, who suffers – Cross River State, my constituency. This is because it will take time for another legislator from this state to rise to the position of Senate Leader.

“If I am obliged the mandate to go back to the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, who knows, I can get something higher and attract more benefits to Cross River State.”

We gathered that when Ndoma-Egba formally announced his intention to run for a fourth term recently, the announcement did not go down well with his state governor, Senator Liyel Imoke, who is believed to be grooming another candidate to replace the senate leader. Given Ndoma-Egba’s clout, the intrigues in the zone are of special interest to observers.

Other senatorial seats where intrigues of special interest are currently recorded include Kebbi North seat, where Governor Usman Saidu Dakingari of Kebbi State is also believed to be in the race for the Senate next year, thereby pitching him against Senator Isa Galaudu currently occupying the seat.

There is also Abia Central Senatorial zone, where State Governor Theodore Orji has declared interest to replace Senator Nkechi Nwogu, currently occupying the seat.

Nwogu, according to reports, is willing to give in if the governor allows her to fly the PDP’s governorship ticket. Given the call for zoning, it seems difficult for Orji to grant such a request, so observers are interested to see how the matter would be resolved.

Also, since Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan of Delta State indicated his intention to run for Delta South Senatorial zone, there has been tension within the party in the zone as the current occupant of the seat, Senator James Manager, a third-termer in the red chamber, has allegedly sworn to fight for his seat in 2015

In Akwa Ibom State, the case of Governor Godswill Akpabio and Senator Aloysius Etok is also of special interest. Since Akpabio reportedly declared his intention to unseat Etok, the Chairman of the Senate Committee in Establishment and Public Service Matters has allegedly voiced preparedness to fight for his seat. How he will do this remains to be seen.

In Bauchi State, there are also strong indications that Senator Adamu Ibrahim Gumba, representing Bauchi South, is not taking kindly to the alleged plan of Governor Isa Yuguda to replace him.

The case of Senator Paulinus Igwe and Governor Martins Elechi of Ebonyi State is also of interest. The governor has reportedly told Igwe that he will be replacing him in the senate while Igwe, as in the case of Abia, is also insisting that they swap positions.

Other governors who are in their final term and may want to take a shot at the Senate seat include Murtala Nyako of Adamawa, Sule Lamido of Jigawa, Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers and Ibrahim Shehu Shema.

March 9, 2014
‘We want responsive governance in South-East’

A group, South East Forum, has called for more responsive governance in the South-East zone.

In a statement released on the 10th anniversary of the late Chief Sam Mbakwe, and signed by its chairman, Rev. Nnorom Austin Emeka, the group said:

“The 10 years memorial of late Sam Mbakwe, the first executive governor of old Imo State, which then comprised today’s Abia, Ebonyi and Imo states, calls for reflection on governance in the South East and clearly throws aspersion on today’s South East leaders and shows their inability to deliver democratic dividends to the people of South East Nigeria.

“This region today suffers clear infrastructural underdevelopment and high level of unemployment, which is evident from the exodus of youths who constitute a menace through activities like street trading in the North and South-West Nigeria and beyond.

“Our survey, which shows that over 10,000 youths migrate daily to other parts of the country and overseas calls for more responsive governance. The South-East governors should as a matter of urgency commence youth and women empowerment programmes which was part of the human capital development goals responsible for the huge success of the late Sam Mbakwe’s regime. It is so worrisome that this region today has the largest baby factories globally as a result of the governors’ outright neglect for teenage females.

“As we are approaching another election year, we call on the good people of the South-East to vote in visionary leaders like the late Sam Mbakwe that had people-oriented programmes.”

March 9, 2014
2015: Bankole tasks politicians on peace

The Iyalode of Gbagura Kingdom in Abeokuta, Adunni Bankole, has appealed to politicians to tread the path of peace and fairness as they campaign for elective positions come 2015.

Adunni Bakole, who is the step mother of the former Speaker of House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole, made this known at the graduation ceremony of 300 students of the free ICT Training Centre, established by a member of the Ogun State House of Assembly, Ifo Constituency 2, Adijah Adeleye in Akute, Ogun State.

The programme brought together thousands of residents in the area, including lawmakers, traditional rulers, artisans, market women, youth groups and church leaders, which featured free medical care, free eye clinic, distribution of free drugs and the commissioning of a new ICT Centre in conjunction with National Information Development Agency, Olambe.

According to her, there is a rising apprehension in the polity, which portends a great danger for our nascent democracy if not curbed in the interest of our youths.

She applauded the effort of the lawmaker in providing capacity development projects for the people within her constituency, saying, “We need to embark on more sustainable policies and programmes that are aimed at building the human capacity of our youths needed in job creation and economic development.”

Adeleye said, “when we started the computer programme, it was majorly for youths, but to our surprise, old men and women joined. Our 500 students from diverse background, tribe, religion and political affiliations have benefited from our development projects that are apolitical and have a human face.”

Adeleye promised that the best graduating students will be employed in the new ICT centre and others will be exposed to other opportunities for employment within and outside the area.

March 9, 2014
Senate’s ‘Methuselahs’

For some senators, the upper chamber has become a second home where they have operated for not less than two terms. Sunday Oguntola considers their contributions and staying powers

You could call them veterans. And they have really battled against all odds to win back-to-back elections. Not to a local government or state assemblies but to the powerful upper chamber of the national assembly from their different constituencies.

They have studied, conquered their local constituencies and have established themselves, more or less, like institutions. They are the senate’s veterans or Methuselah, if you like. They know virtually all the nooks and crannies of the senate. They have studied senate’s procedures and can read them like the palms of their hands. These are the longest serving senators of the Federal Republic of Nigeria:

David Mark

He saw what many Nigerians did not see. That was way back in 1999. When David Mark indicated interest in contesting the senatorial seat of Benue South, many did not know he was on his way to prominence. Two presidents have come and gone since his election. But Mark has remained untouchable, winning back-to-back elections to the upper chamber.

He was just a committee member in his first term during which analysts said he was studying the terrains. The former soldier learnt well and became a committee chairman in his second term from 2003-2007.

When the 5th National Assembly took off, Mark had established sufficient contacts and networks to become the president unopposed. He has since held sway in the upper chamber, proving stability for the polity. It is believed Mark enjoys supports from his colleagues.

Attempts by a former Principal Staff Officer to the late General Sani Abacha, General Lawrence Onoja, to dislodge Mark in 2011 failed.

Many say Mark has his eyes on the presidency, but sources close to him said he is determined to remain as senate president for as long as he can.

Uche Chukwumerije

Vocal and visible, Chukwumerije is no push-over in the senate since he joined in 2003. The Abia North representative is one of the elders in the chamber. He is one of those with interesting rides to the senate.

The former Minister of Information in the regime of Ibrahim Babangida won elections to the senate on the platform of two parties at different times. In 2006, he was forced out of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for opposing the third term agenda of former President Olusegun Obasanjo. He re-contested for his seat under the platform of the Progressive Peoples’ Alliance (PPA) and won. By 2011, he was back in the PDP and won re-election.

The erudite scholar is a writer, having published titles like The African American, One Nigeria: The Birth and Evolution of an Idea, The Revolution Has No Tribe: Contemporary Poetry on African History, Culture and Society Co-written with Azuka Juachi Okonji, Strategic Love: Simple Rules That Make Love Work and many others. His aides said he is poised to vie for the seat again until he is tired to go on.

His mainstay is positioning himself as champion of the Ndigbo in the senate, a development that has endeared him to the Igbo nation.

Ike Ekweremadu

The Deputy Senate President walked into the chamber in 2003 for the first time. By 2007, the Enugu-West representative has worked his way to the current position. His strategy is to play national politics, a position that has paid off. He is Chairman of the Constitutional Amendment Committee of the National Assembly and Speaker of the Economic Community of West African States Parliament where he has gained many mileages.

But his seat is under threat as Governor Sullivan Chime has indicated interest in taking over from him. But insiders said Ekweremadu has started playing local politics to regain his seat.

Victor Ndoma-Egba

The Cross Rivers Central representative is a majority leader in the senate. He started in the chamber in 2003 when he was rewarded with committee membership. He has since learnt the ropes to become the Majority Leader which enables him to call the shots in many businesses of the senate. His activism as a former Nigeria Bar Association chairman in Calabar has helped his hold on power just like his willingness to do the biddings of the ruling party.

He has already declared intention in seeking a fourth term in the upper chamber with many believing he might just secure the nod of his constituency.

Abu Ibrahim

After a four-year absence, Ibrahim returned to the Senate in 2011 under the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). He was elected senator under the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2003, months after he resigned as chairman of the PDP in Katsina State.

Ibrahim represents Katsina South and was expelled from the ANPP in 2006. He contested for the governorship in 2007, which he lost and returned to the Senate in 2011 to continue from where he stopped his first stint.

His closeness to ex-Head of State, Muhammadu Buhari, is believed to be responsible for his re-election to the upper chamber. It is unclear if he would be seeking to return come 2015.

March 9, 2014
Adamawa 2015: It’s a four-horse race

Like in most states of the federation with governors running the final lap of their tenure, the next governorship election in Adamawa State is beginning to take shape as four aspirants have emerged as frontrunners, reports Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo

Until the resignation of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as the National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on January 16, the race for the party’s 2015 governorship ticket seemed signed, sealed and delivered to Awwal, the eldest son of the erstwhile PDP helmsman.

But this initial calculation may have been altered following the recent defection of the former governorship candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the state, Engr. Marcus Gundiri, from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the PDP, coupled with the refusal of the Deputy Governor, Bala James Ngilari, to join the APC alongside his boss, Governor Murtala Nyako.

Gundiri, who posted an impressive showing at the 2011 governorship election, coming a close second to Nyako, cited his alleged exclusion and that of his supporters in the running of the APC as the main factor responsible for his defection to the PDP.

But sources in the state aver that Gundiri’s governorship ambition and the realisation that Nyako may not support him largely informed his decision to join the PDP, while allegedly shunning all entreaties from the APC leaders to remain in the party.

The issue of ambition, sources said, may have also compelled Ngilari to stay put in the PDP like his Sokoto and Nasarawa states counterparts, Mukhtah Shagari and Mr. Dameshi Barau Luka respectively, whose principals had long joined the APC.

Who wins the PDP ticket?

In spite of his father’s resignation as the PDP boss, sources disclosed that Awwal will, barring any unforeseen circumstances, declare his governorship ambition in the third quarter of this year.

A source close to the former member of the House of Representatives told The Nation that the defection of Gundiri and Ngilari’s governorship ambition would not in any way threaten the younger Tukur’s chances at the PDP primaries.

The palpable confidence in Tukur’s camp may not be unconnected to a promise Alhaji Bamanga Tukur allegedly extracted from President Goodluck Jonathan to support his son’s 2015 governorship ambition.

Another edge the younger Tukur also seems to have over and above the other potential aspirants is the control of the Adamawa PDP executive committee by people unquestionably loyal to his father.

Before Nyako’s defection to the APC, the state PDP had two factions, with one led by Alhaji Mijinyawa Kugama, which is loyal to the governor, while the other faction, led by Chief Joel Madaki, is loyal to Tukur.

However, not a few major stakeholders in Adamawa PDP are worried about how the national leadership of the party will resolve the crisis that may likely ensue in the aftermath of the party’s primaries.

According to a party member, there are fears that Ngilari, who is said to have wormed his way into the good books of President Goodluck Jonathan, has allegedly vowed not to step down for Tukur or any other candidate.

Sources disclosed that his confidence may have stemmed from positive feelers he has allegedly received from some close aides of the president to support his alleged ambition.

The Nation further gathered that during several meetings of the PDP Governors Forum and the party’s caucus meetings held in recent times at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, Ngilari was conspicuously noticed and accorded a ‘warm reception’, a development many in the party have interpreted as a tacit endorsement of his alleged ambition by those that matter in the party.

With an alleged plan afoot to make Ngilari the PDP leader in Adamawa State, fears are being expressed in certain quarters in the party that forces loyal to Bamanga Tukur may not take kindly to the deputy governor’s leadership.

A source quipped, “The former National Chairman (of the PDP) had positioned his son to take over from Nyako in 2015, but the governor also had his own plans. If Ngilari is eventually favoured for the PDP ticket, it will be akin to dumping Tukur simply because he is no longer in charge.”

How to handle Gundiri’s ambition is also another knotty issue being discussed by party stakeholders, as the former APC stalwart’s decision to join the party was based on an alleged assurance he got that a level playing field will be provided for all governorship aspirants.

Gundiri, according to a source, believes strongly that with a level playing field, he stands a good chance to emerge as the PDP flag bearer. In the 2011 governorship election, the then defunct ACN candidate polled 260,405 votes to emerge second behind Nyako who got 302, 986 votes.

Observers of Adamawa politics are, however, not ruling out the emergence of a dark horse in the race for the PDP ticket, even as there are unconfirmed report that Senator Bello Mohammed Tukur may throw his hat into the ring.

Out of the three senators from Adamawa State, Tukur declined to defect to the APC like his colleagues, Ahmed Hassan Barata and Mohammed Jubrilla Bindo.

The Marwa challenge in the APC

The current situation in the APC also presents an interesting scenario.

The incumbent governor, sources have alleged, is said to have an anointed candidate in mind to succeed him in 2015. But where does this arrangement leave Gen. Buba Marwa (rtd), the former Military Administrator of Lagos and Borno States, who is still allegedly interested in occupying the Adamawa Government House.

Marwa contested for the seat in 2011 on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) coming a distant third with 107, 564 votes, but not a few national leaders of the APC believe that with the right party platform and support from an incumbent governor, Marwa has all it takes to win the next governorship election in Adamawa State.

Another argument being canvassed by party stakeholders is that having spurned alleged pressures from the national leadership of the PDP and the presidency to dump the APC, the retired Army Brigadier General has proved his loyalty beyond doubt and must be ‘rewarded’ with the party’s ticket.

With unconfirmed reports claiming that one of the two APC senators, who is quite close to Governor Nyako, is also interested in the exalted seat, it remains unclear how the whole process will play out within the APC.

But what is, however, certain is that the 2015 governorship race in the North-East state will be a straight fight between the APC and the PDP.

March 9, 2014