With the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) trapped in factional paralysis, Osun State’s Governor Ademola Adeleke risks approaching the 2026 governorship election without a platform. He must decide whether to remain in the party, with the faint hope that the crisis may be resolved, or find a new political home before the nomination deadline closes. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI reports.
Governor Ademola Adeleke is facing one of the most unpredictable electoral challenges of his political life as the 2026 Osun governorship race approaches. For most incumbents, the path to a second term is straightforward: stand on the platform that brought you to office, present your record, mobilise the party machinery, and win the primary.
But nothing is straightforward anymore. Adeleke now stands on fractured ground as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once a national powerhouse, collapses under the weight of its own internal warfare. A party once capable of producing sweeping victories is now incapable of offering even the basic guarantee required for survival: the recognition of its national officers by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to sign nomination forms.
The INEC deadline for party primaries — December 15, 2025 — hangs like a tightening clock, no longer a routine administrative milestone but a political threat. With no credible path to a valid primary, and two hostile factions locked in a legitimacy war that recently spilled into street-level confrontation in Abuja, Adeleke must choose whether to wait inside the turmoil or seek a safer political platform.
Party at war with itself
To understand Adeleke’s dilemma, the journey begins in Abuja. The PDP is not merely divided; it is deconstructing. Prof Anthony Kila, a seasoned policy analyst, describes the situation as a national collapse of civility and institutional order.
What began as intra-party disagreements has transformed into open warfare. On one side is the Turaki–Makinde faction, led by newly elected National Chairman Tanimu Turaki, with the backing of Governors Seyi Makinde of Oyo and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi. Their controversial convention in Ibadan last weekend saw them seize control and expel their rivals.
Opposing them is the Wike–Anyanwu bloc, led by FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and Senator Samuel Anyanwu, who insists he remains the authentic National Secretary despite his expulsion.
The standoff reached a troubling climax on Tuesday (November 18), when both factions attempted to take over the PDP headquarters. Tear gas drifted across Wadata Plaza as rival groups shoved and surged. Wike sat in his vehicle, watching the chaos unfold — a tableau of power and calculation.
Inside the besieged building, Turaki made an astonishing appeal to U.S. President Donald Trump to help save Nigeria’s democracy.
For Kila, this was not just disorder but a warning: a democracy falters when its main opposition descends into street-level confrontation. The PDP’s implosion is not a backdrop to Adeleke’s re-election effort — it is the central obstacle.
Governor without a platform
This national turmoil has direct consequences for Osun. Senator Anyanwu, who is recognised by the Wike faction as National Secretary, has vowed not to sign any primary-related documents for Osun.
Kamorudeen Ajisafe, PDP National Deputy Vice Chairman (Southwest), was blunt: there is no realistic path for the PDP to nominate a candidate for the 2026 Osun governorship election. His analogy was equally blunt: if someone blocks your gate and another opens theirs, why cry over the one who shut you out?
The precedent from Ekiti is alarming. There, the Wike–Anyanwu faction wrote to INEC requesting a postponement of the primary. INEC rejected the letter because it was not signed by both the recognised National Chairman and National Secretary. The Turaki–Makinde faction proceeded with the primary on November 8 as scheduled.
The same script is unfolding in Osun, but with far higher stakes.
Complicating matters further is the fact that the two principal national officers required to sign PDP nomination forms (Acting National Chairman Umar Damagun and National Secretary Senator Anyanwu) are now split between the two opposing factions. This makes any near-term recognition by INEC nearly impossible and closes the door on a quick institutional resolution.
Adeleke cannot rely on judicial or administrative intervention to rescue the party’s nomination process within the narrow window available.
Adeleke’s political future is thus tied to a rapidly tightening constraint: he is a sitting governor who may soon be left without a platform.
Escape routes in view
With the PDP unable to guarantee him a ticket, Adeleke is exploring alternatives. Party insiders confirm that he has opened discussions with both the Accord Party and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). These smaller parties often serve as emergency platforms for politicians navigating high-stakes elections.
Sources suggest that negotiations with the Accord Party have advanced the most, with internal conversations on how to receive the governor already underway.
There were also rumours of talks with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), though his media aide publicly denied them.
Defection is a gamble. APC chieftain Abiola Ogundokun mocked the governor’s predicament, declaring that once a sitting governor begins negotiating with smaller parties, it signals the end of the road.
But Ogundokun may have misread the situation. Adeleke’s real challenge is not popularity at the grassroots level — where his accessibility and populist style still resonate — but the shrinking time available to secure a legitimate platform.
Osun PDP on the brink
While the PDP burns nationally, fissures have opened in its Osun chapter. The Ife Federal Constituency, which used to be the party’s stronghold, is now a battleground. Stakeholders recently passed a vote of no confidence in Deputy Governor Kola Adewusi and former National Secretary Wale Oladipo (both from the constituency), accusing them of collaborating with Taofeek Ajilesoro, the House of Representatives member who defected to the APC in August.
This matters because Ife is the heartbeat of Osun politics. Whoever captures Ife typically captures the state.
Osun State PDP Chairman Sunday Bisi has attempted to calm tensions, calling for a family meeting. But the fractures are widening, deepening pressure on Adeleke to consider an alternate platform.
APC watches, waits — and smells blood
Across the aisle, the APC watches with strategic calm. Party leaders believe the PDP is collapsing and that Adeleke is trapped inside a sinking structure. Ogundokun insists the APC remains the most disciplined and stable political machine in Osun.
APC strategists are refining their game plan. Some argue that zoning should be discarded entirely. Their strategy is simple: break Adeleke’s grip on Ede and dominate Ile-Ife. They believe those two battlegrounds will determine the 2026 outcome.
Despite internal tensions, the APC senses opportunity and is preparing to exploit it.
Beyond Osun: democracy at stake
This crisis is not just about Osun. Prof Kila argues that political parties form the backbone of democratic legitimacy. When the main opposition party disintegrates, the broader system trembles.
He points to a troubling pattern in the country: judges openly displaying partisanship; party officers appealing to foreign leaders; politicians disregarding their party’s internal rules. These are signs of institutional erosion.
If the PDP collapses entirely, Nigeria risks drifting toward a one-party state. And democracies rarely endure on one leg.
Adeleke’s crisis, therefore, mirrors a national one.
Three paths for the governor
Adeleke faces three strategic choices: Remain in the PDP. This option preserves loyalty but carries enormous uncertainty. Without immediate resolution of the factional crisis, which is unlikely, given the split between Damagun and Anyanwu, the governor risks being stranded.
Secondly, he may reconsider defecting to the APC. This would solve his nomination problem and align him with federal power. But the APC rejected him publicly in the past. Joining now exposes him to accusations of desperation.
Thirdly, he could join a smaller party, like the Accord Party or the APGA. This provides a clean nomination and insulation from PDP turmoil. But smaller parties lack statewide machinery. Adeleke would need to build one quickly, at the risk of alienating PDP loyalists.
Each path demands sacrifice. None is safe.
Stakeholders tell the story
PDP leaders insist Adeleke is staying put. Osun State Chairman Sunday Bisi maintains the governor has not considered defecting. Elders reaffirm their confidence.
But rank-and-file members whisper a different sentiment: remaining in a PDP without functional national leadership may be political suicide.
The APC has sharpened its rhetoric; portraying Adeleke as a liability to any party he joins. They mock the PDP’s handling of his screening, calling it an attempt to mask the embarrassment of the APC’s earlier rejection.
Independent observers note that Adeleke still enjoys a strong grassroots appeal. They also stress that the APC’s internal unity is far from perfect. As for the ADC, it remains too weak in Osun to present a direct threat.
In short, the field is fluid. Every option remains in play.
The scenarios ahead
The best scenario for Adeleke would be a swift PDP reconciliation recognised by INEC; a prospect now remote due to the split between Damagun and Anyanwu.
A middle scenario is that he stays in a fractured but functional PDP. If the APC fields a weak candidate and the ADC remains fragmented, he could still win.
The worst-case scenario is simple: the PDP fails to present a candidate. Party leaders defect, Adeleke moves too late, and the APC — united behind a strong flag-bearer — sweeps the election.
Test of leadership, legacy
The decisions Adeleke makes in the coming weeks will shape not only his re-election bid but his place in Nigeria’s political history. Leadership often requires navigating contradictions: loyalty versus survival, identity versus strategy.
If he navigates this storm with clarity, he may emerge as a stabilising figure at a moment when Nigeria’s opposition is struggling for relevance. If he falters, he risks becoming a symbol of the PDP’s wider collapse.
The Osun 2026 governorship election is not merely a state contest. It is a test of Nigeria’s multiparty democracy.
Time is short. The field is shifting. And Adeleke must choose his path.
