The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Xenophobia, business and diplomacy

    AS  I write Nigerians are furious with  South Africans over the killing of Nigerians in that nation shown very  vividly on social  media. In retaliation some irate Nigerians have attacked MTN offices and in panic the South African Ambassador in Nigeria has closed his nation’s embassy until ‘the situation improves ‘. Similarly, the Nigerian government  has sent a special  envoy to the S African  government in protest  at  the killing of Nigerians while also stopping the Nigerian Vice President from  attending the World Economic Forum  conference  going on in S  Africa. Definitely Xenophobia has thrown spanner in the works for  diplomacy  between Nigeria and S Africa  and  the only silver cloud in the horizon is that   both  nations are  not contiguous neighbors  and  are   geographically so far from each  other, otherwise  there  would have been  more  than    the  beating of war drums on both  sides.

    In  business  and politics   this week  there  was an uproar in Nigeria over an award of 9.6bn  dollars   to a Irish   firm  over  a breach  of contract  with the Nigerian gas sector that  had  Nigerians worried  that the nation’s assets   could  be seized abroad  and locally. This came at a time that  the issue  of Brexit  in the British Parliament  was dominating  world attention as the British PM lost  two  key   votes   in Parliament to leave the EU on   Oct 31, deal  or no deal,  as well as the call  for  a general election. In  both  situations xenophobia  and patriotism  played a major  noisy part. Both  beclouded  arguments for and against  the manner and legality of the Irish   court’s  judgement  against the Nigerian government    well  as  the constitutionality of the British PM’s prorogation of Parliament whose  supremacy  seemed  vindicated by the  emphatic   defeat of the two  motions brought to  Parliament by the new British  PM.

    In  the xenophobic  patriotism  displayed  by both Nigerians and S Africans,  social  media played a major escalation and provocative  role that  made diplomacy almost impossible and almost  ineffective. This  showed  clearly  the   pervasive, borderless and  impactful    capacity of Information  Technology   and the Internet for  good  or evil, this time  for  evil, satanic and murderous purposes as both  Nigerians and South Africans had murder and mayhem on their minds, after watching the gruesome and vivid murders of their citizens   on social media. This showed  clearly    too that the world has truly  become a global  village and while knowledge and ideas flowed  effortlessly across the world on our phones and TV they  can also make  us reach for ammunitions and dangerous weapons when we see fellow  citizens being hacked to death  right before our eyes in the gadgets of modern civilization which we carry in our palms to  watch  xenophobic   horrors.

    The  way  out is for the two  governments to   caution their  citizenry on the harmful and provocative nature of social  media and to ask them  to use their  judgement  and common sense to discern fake news. It  should  be a direct  appeal in terms of adverts on TV  radio and in the social  media too, to ask  people to be suspicious of what they  watch and imbibe on Youtube as well as their platforms on social  media. This  may  be the appropriate  time to regulate locally in both nations what their  citizens  watch and act on gullibly and with impunity with the wrong assumption that any video they see reflects reality, when with the present spate of innovative and mischievous technology at play  and on offer uncontrollably that is not  always the case.  Of  course, diplomatically, the two nations must mend fences as two  wrongs  do not make a right. In   diplomacy   however what  is important is not  permanent  friendship that we have  with each other but permanent interests. Especially  economic  and cultural ties between  the two nations which  must  be protected and sustained  at  all  costs and  in spite of the  adversarial, satanic and  blood curdling social  media postings in both nations.

    In  the  case of  the $9.6bn it  is  not  an exaggeration to say that Nigerians are really  worried. I was dragged into an educative discussion on the issue during the week  by some well  respected elderly Nigerians. My  view is that the issue  is a scam  from the beginning to the end.  Just  look at the judgement award which was initially $6 .59bn  initially   with the proviso  that Nigeria  would pay $1.2bn  daily as interest that the company would  have realized had  the project been implemented. But  there is nothing on the ground and that award  certainly is one sided. It  is as if the judge was the lawyer  for the  company.

    My  take is that the initial ward  was unreasonable and certainly  one  sided. Even  our lawyer who  initially  agreed  that  the company should  be paid $250m  for breach of contract  should  be asked to explain why and what  for. Although Nigeria has paid  huge sums for breach  of contracts in the past especially during the Buhari Military  Administartion when it terminated the 700mnaira Metroline   project  and Nigeria was forced to pay a fine of  $78m  for breach of contract. That  was a reasonable  award and defendable  in law. The $6.59bn  award  to  P&ID for a breach of a contract  that  had nothing to show on the ground in terms of performance and  which went  on to calculate daily   interests on a failed contract  without  a performance bond certainly lacks equity   fairness  and credibility and should  be contested  vigorously by  Nigeria.

    It  is pertinent  to mention here that this  is a very  suspicious award and  is a trend  to expect in the fight against corruption.  This   is  corruption fighting   back  as I have  warned    before. Predictably     more of such failed contracts would surface from past  regimes because there are lawyers  businessmen and  contractors who  are like vultures   and  scavengers who  feed on the carcasses of such  failed contracts. Government on its own    should not shoot  itself in the leg  by turning on its officials involved in such transactions  but  focus on the whys and wherefores why  contracts signed in  the past failed  or  were  terminated  and why  government cancelled them and moved on with such public or state projects crucial  for its economic development  projects. For  now it is a field  day  for lawyers  on the interpretation of the judgement  but it is not a purely legal  affair because it has serious political and economic implications and  involves sovereign morality  too. This  is   because  the morals  of a nation  cannot  be seen  in the same  light as that of individuals  and persons .Government  should  therefore  seek  redress in courts to put an end to the crass injustice and impunity  of this contemptuously huge  and bizarre award, that  attempts  to ridicule  the   Nigerian nation and its  sovereignty.

    We  go back  to  Brexit  and  the political  humiliation of the new UK PM Boris  Johnson in the British  Parliament  this   week. In stark  terms the British  Parliament has  shown  its hand and strength when it  mattered and cut its hugely ambitious PM to  size  when it voted across party lines that the UK will  leave the EU with  a deal and extend its negotiations beyond Oct 31. Which  is a repudiation of the PM’s ambition to leave the EU by Oct 31, deal  or no deal.  26  members of the governing Conservative Party voted against  their government and were expelled while the PM’s brother, a cabinet  Minister  resigned.  The  Opposition leader Jeremy  Corbyn seem to be having his way.  Which is to get a law banning no deal  withdrawal, get a royal  assent, and then  hold  an  election. Boris  Johnson  by  now  should know that  the hood  does  not make  the  monk  and  that playing Winston  Churchill, a war time PM, in peace time  Brexit, is  a tall  order  and    a hard  act to  follow. As  William  Shakespeare said in the timeless play Julius Caesar, ‘ ambition  should  be made of sterner  stuff ‘ .  Once  again long live the Federal  Republic of Nigeria.

     

  • Power, history and reality

    Power corrupts and absolute  power corrupts  absolutely  is a well known cliché. I put that alongside a saying  that you do not know a man’s  nature until you  give him power. You  may  have guessed  where I  am  heading if you followed  the world  news  as well  the local  one. The major global  news this week  was the suspension of  Parliament in Britain  by the new  British  PM Boris  Johnson and the full  support given him via twitter by US President Donald  Trump.

    In  Nigeria a well-known Northern leader Prof  Ango  Abdullahi   asserted controversially  that the Fulanis  were  better  off under colonial  rule than Independent  Nigeria. I want  to connect Boris Johnson’s suspension  of  Parliament  with the Fulani   lamentation  and fate under  the Colonialists  because Britain was Nigeria’s colonizer and  gave  us Independence under the system  of  Parliamentary  Democracy  which  we  have since abandoned   for the presidential  system  of  government. The  reality  today  however  is  that Britain ‘s PM last  week behaved more  like an executive president in suspending  Parliament  and  exposed  the Achilles  heel of the British  constitution which  is largely  unwritten.

    In   the  lamentation of the fate of the Fulani  herdsmen  today in Nigeria the Professor conveniently  forgot that the Fulani  were the ruling class over the whole of  Northern Nigeria  because the Islamic Jihad of the Sokoto caliphate which is Fulani, was  the   source   from which  power flowed  over Nigeria at Independence  through the Sardauna of Sokoto,  Sir  Ahmadu  Bello,  the first  Northern Nigerian Premier whose  party the NPC was  the ruling  party in Nigeria at  Independence. To  say  that  the Fulanis  were  better off   during colonialism is a tautology.  They  were in power in the North and the  rest  of  Nigeria. They  are  still  very much in power today as the incumbent President of  Nigeria is a full  blooded Fulani  who reportedly said that if he were not educated he would   have been  a cattle  Fulani .

    So  for the distinguished  former VC and  Professor to  say that the Fulanis  were  better off under the  Colonialists is to blow  a trumpet  of  triumph  or kakaki  which  the Fulani  caste  enjoyed under the    policy   of  Indirect Rule  under the British  colonialists  when  Fulani Emirs  ruled over their  Hausa subjects  then  and up till  now.  So  for Ango  Abdullahi to say that the Fulanis  were better off under the British  Colonialsts  is  a fake attempt to pull the wool over our  eyes.  The  reality is that the Fulanis  have always  taken the plums  of power in the rulership  of  Nigeria and right  now  they  are still very  much in the saddle  of  Nigeria’s power politics and democracy.

    In  tackling Boris Johnson’s gamble in suspending Parliament  let  me caution him as I did on Italy’s Matteo  Salvini when  I noted last  week   that in bringing down the government coalition of his party and the Five Stars he  could  lose as a bird in hand is worth  two in the bush.  Now  he has lost because his former coalition partners  have agreed to form a government with a party of the left  which  Salvini never  thought  possible.  In addition they have retained the PM whose  cabinet  Salvini brought down  in a bid  to force  an election. Which shows  that in politics there  are no permanent enemies  but permanent  interests.

    Boris  Johnson’s  disdain for  Parliament  however could  damage  Parliamentary  democracy  for good in Britain. This  is because in the British constitution which  is  unwritten Parliament is  supreme. But the British  constitution is mostly  unwritten  and under  the protocol in which  the Queen  suspended Parliament at the behest  of the PM the Queen’s  action is unqueationable  . Yet  some people  have gone to court to challenge the PM  suspension of Parliament. What  laws or law  precedents will  they use except to mention time  honored traditions and customs. But  how will  that sound in this age and time digital politics and social  media  and hacking of election campaigns  and results?  Obviously  the law  is about  to be given  a kick  in the ass over this Brexit deal  or  no  deal.  One thingis sure though and that is that both Boris  Johnson and Labour Opposition leader Jeremy  Corbyn  have no love lost  between  them on Brexit  and it is difficult  to  say  who  will  prevail   and  the world  will  be watching to see if this is the death  knell  of Parliamentary  democracy  in the Mother of  Parliament or not.

    The  situation in Britain provides ample opportunity  to compare Parliamentary Democracy with the American  presidential  system  with its checks  and balances  and the separation of powers inherent in it. It  is obvious  now  with benefit of hindsight  that both systems  of  government  can  be derailed  under serious system stress  and the machinations  of  politicians.  I    will  use a comparative  analysis to show this disturbing  fact  in the Brexit  saga still  unfolding , the US under  Donald  Trump  and the  Nigerian  senate between 2015  and  2019.

    Udoubtedly  the  British  Parliament  has  been seriously  wounded in terms of image and respectability by the Brexit  Debates. Three   deals on Brexit were rejected by Parliament  and the last by the Speaker who cited   the  wordings as the same and therefore not worthy of  consideration.  This led to the resignation of Theresa May  as PM  and the emergence of Boris  Johnson.  Now Johnson is suspicious  of  Parliament  hence the suspension or prorogation . A mistrust of Parliament by a sitting PM cannot augur  well  for Parliamentary  democracy. As  an observer  noted  if in a Parliamentary  democracy Parliament becomes undemocratic in preventing Brexit from happening then  democracy must  be imposed on Parliament. Which in a way was what the British  PM is trying to do but he is not having it easy at  all   and the world is watching with bated breath.

    In the US under  Trump  separation of powers seem  broken and  apart.  Whereas the checks  and balances  put  in place were to make  the system  intertwined and interwoven.  But  now under Trump  the senate goes its way   dominated   by the Republicans  while the House  of Reps  under the Democrats does  things its way and  there is little room  for accommodation or  tolerance which is the essence of the  checks  and balances in a presidential  system.  So  the American  political  system  is under the personality  stress  of its  incumbent  president and that  stress  has  been  translated into a global  stress affecting all  issues from climate to diplomacy and trade.

    Ironically  the Nigerian  political  system  weathered  its  separation of  powers stress better than both the US and Britain  where  the sovereignty  and integrity of Parliament have been  impugned.  The  Senate President in 2015 became that President by subterfuge and deceit  of the ruling APC.  He  was able to hold on to that position till  the end of his tenure and to the chagrin of his then  party before defecting to the opposition PDP,  This  definitely debarred  the APC  from fulfilling  its mandate as it was crippled in the senate where an enemy  from within its ranks  had imposed himself  as president. Luckily the APC  won the 2019  election  and has put its house in order as lightning  cannot  be allowed to strike   twice at the same spot.

    So  to a great  extent Nigeria’s  metamorphosis from a Parliamentary democracy  to an executive presidency  encompasses  the good  the bad and  ugly  of the two  systems. We have seen  the worst case scenario in which the Speakers mace  had  been  used to break  law  makers heads or get lost in Parliament.  Such incidents led to military intervention and later   the Presidential  system of government.  From  all  indications it would seem that  both our former colonial  master  and the garrulous Americans are  on the verge of  their    round   of  fisticuffs  in evolving their own  democracies   and  we can  only  watch  from  afar.  After all what is good for the goose    should be sauce   for the gander.

    Once again long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Leadership, expectations and democracy

    Democracy  largely is an ideology of great expectations of leadership by the electorate who  elected leaders into power in  the hope that promises made during campaigns  will   be  met. When  elected  leaders  meet  such expectations or  even  part  of it,  the pendulum  of   satisfaction   and   fulfillment swings   up  and down. When expectations are  not met at all  there  is  at  first indignation,  leading to despondency  then  the anger of betrayal makes  the political  arena tense and at  times violent. It  follows  therefore that it is better and even safer that elected leaders keep  their election  promises  so  that they can gain the confidence and support of the electorate and keep  their power  and the perquisites of office deservedly  instead  of attracting the hostility, distrust  and contempt  of those who elected them by not keeping their election promises. Today  I look at the ways and means that some  leaders in some nations are using to  ensure that they  do not lose  the confidence of  their people  because they  elected them into office in good faith to keep election promises and make life  better  and comfortable for  them.

    It  is always better here that charity should start  at  home in Nigeria where a new cabinet  was sworn in this week with fanfare in the capital in Abuja.  We  shall  examine  the level  of expectations in the land on the new  cabinet  more  so that the  government is a re elected one that has a score card already on its performance in office in the first  term from 2015 to  2019.  That  certainly creates a spring board  on  the quality  of expectations or  hope  of Nigerians on what is in the offing for them  in the next four years.

    We  go  to Italy  too where  a leader of a coalition government  has literally broken  the coalition and brought the government  down  because he feels  that  the electorate is in tune  with his kept promises  and  he thinks it   would  be  propitious     for  him    to call    for  an   election  for now  so   that   he  can   win  and  do away  with his coalition partners. We  look  at the two  leaders  of the Western  world, namely Britain  and the US as  they  cope with political situations and unique  leaders that  have divided their  stable  governments sharply if  not  wildly  in a way  that even  they are shocked at how  and why they  got  to the messy impasse  they  have found themselves.  Brexit  is rocking Britain  with Boris  Johnson behaving as if he is the  Messiah to make Britain great  again when  EU  leaders  have told him bluntly  that  they   are  ready  for the  specter of No Deal   he has used  to  get  into power as PM. Donald  Trump, the maverick  US President  has  boasted  always  that  he has kept  his campaign  promises  but now that the economy  is  shaky  he is not fazed  as he  even  joked  that  as  President of the US in these unusual  times,  he is the ‘chosen one ‘.

    We  go back  again to  Nigeria  where a new  government is in place   with  many of the old Ministers  still  on board. The  fresh  faces too are not that new  as   some    have been  governors before. In  terms of  expectations the old hands  could search  their conscience on their last performance and beat  their chests if they  think they  have satisfied Nigerians in terms of  expectations or bow their heads in shame if they know they  have  not. Generally  expectations  are low  of this new  cabinet  in the nation. There  is a saying that  you  do not  change  a winning  team but  this was not one in the last  four years  and there  is no need to mention names or portfolios.  The issues of insecurity, terrorism,  banditry, herdsmen and farmers are  still  untouched in terms of  their  savagery  and pervasiveness  in  Nigeria.   The   fact  that  at  the time  the  Ministers  were  being sworn  Nigeria’s  borders   were  closed   to  check    the influx  and   menace of  illegal   immigrants  threatening our collective  security  is  ominously  symbolic.  That   really  is a  big challenge   for   the new  Minister   of Interior   former Osun State  Governor  Rauf  Aregbesola.  Indeed  there  is  a saying that  it does not  matter  how the snake  is killed  as long  as it is   killed  and its menace  removed. Unfortunately  the ‘snake’  marauding  our citizenry  is wildly alive  and well.  Our  hope is that  the new government will   kill  it permanently  so  that Nigerians  can  pray  and  clap  for  government and its ministers  as they go  into  the government’s second term, hopefully  to meet  the expectations of the Nigerian  nation, this    time   around.

    In Italy  the Interior Minister Matteo Salvini  who  has become popular with the implementation of Italy’s anti Immigrants  policy became opportunistic   to  become PM by  precipitating a crisis  that  forced the PM  Guisseppe  Conte to  resign  and for his coalition  partner  to  seek  new coalition  partners.  What  interests  us here is that  Salvini  is savouring the joy   and strength  of  living up to the expectations of the electorate and is cashing on that  to get   even  more power. That  really  is how a democracy  should  run.  The  fuel   of a  vibrant  democracy should   be  the  realization of  election promises  by those  elected  into office  and Salvini  is gambling  on that right now in Italy  and I wish him luck  and   hope  that his huge  democratic  gambit does not  back fire as a bird  in hand is worth two  in the bush.

    With  regard to Britain and  the US  and  the menace of Brexit  and a Trump  presidency  I  see  the two  leaders as two  sides  of  the same  coin.  Trump  even  before Boris Johnson  came to power  was in favour of Brexit  saying  loud  and clear that  the US would  make a  better  trade deal with  Britain  such that it would  never regret leaving the EU. Boris Johnson  on the other  hand is  holding the British electorate  by the jugular  that it voted to leave the EU   referendum  and that  it cannot change  its  mind and  would leave by October  this year  deal  or no Deal. That  too is  living up to  the  expectation of the British  people inherent in the referendum  result,   no matter   how   close.  The  fact  that the implementation of Brexit is difficult  does  not  invalidate the expectation of the British  people in such a way  that a second referendum  would  be  required. That  again shows  that  democracy  is not always a bed of  roses  as  the  British  electorate  wrestles tirelessly  with its own Brexit decision and expectations.

    Similarly, the US President Donald  Trump  should  be commended,  no matter    how grudgingly  for living up to his election promises on Immigration and  a buoyant  economy.  He has also brought China to its   knees   to respect  intellectual property and control  piracy  in its economy and   internationally. Trump  has  been  his  government’s  most vocal  trumpet  and talking drum of his  government’s achievements  and he has been  helped  immensely  by the technology of tweeter which  has  helped  him  a lot to take on both domestic and foreign enemies  and detractors  alike.  Regardless  of his offensive utterances  there is  something to be admired in a leader  like Donald  Trump   who brags about his  fulfillment of the campaign promises  he made before  coming to power. That  really is the  essence of  leadership in a democracy  anywhere in the world.  Once again  long live the Federal Republic of  Nigeria.

  • The Ottoman Empire, Nigeria and Turkey

    I delve into history today to  illustrate what I foresee as the possible future of Nigeria as we know it now. I  look at  an ancient  empire that crumbled at the end of the first World  War  [1914  – 1918] to be replaced by a nation state just  as the British colonialists were creating Nigeria by merging the North and  South  of   their  vast and  populous colony  in 1914  and  named  it  Nigeria. The old  Empire was the Ottoman Empire – [1299 – 1923]  which conquered parts of Europe and allowed the conquered  nations citizens to practice their  religion while  conscripting some of the citizens into the army  and using them as slaves and soldiers in the Empire’s  army.

    The Ottoman Empire today is replicated by Turkey whose president is Tayyip Erdogan , a very  successful  democrat who lives in the capital  Istanbul  in a 1000 room presidential  palace  befitting a modern Emperor  or Sultan of  Turkey. In  my view  there is  lot that  Nigeria  today  has in common  with the emergence  of the Ottoman  Empire and the history  of  Turkey when the  Empire  collapsed  and  Kemal  Ataturk  became  the ruler  of  Modern  Turkey    and  left  a legacy  of  a secular  state to be run under  the supervision  of the military  in  Turkey. Although   Turkey’s  present president  has  changed all that,  it  is  the relevance  of this short story  to the present  political  and  socio  economic  circumstances in Nigeria  that  drives  our thinking today.

    In  Nigeria  today  the  major   security   issues  driving  the political  climate and  the issues, revolve  around  the terror  of Boko  Haram, the  charge  of  Fulanisation and  Islamisation, the threat  and  protests  of  the  Shiites.  All  of which  are about  the groups  involved   trying to  impose  their  will  or faith  and way  of life on other  parts  of the nation. Of  course Myetti  Allah  too falls  under this category. Take  it or leave it  they  resemble  invading forces and  they  are  armed  and the  Nigerian  military  apparatus  is being stretched to  its  limit  to contain  them. These  forces are    however being treated  with  kid  gloves while  the rest  of the nation  watch  with dismay  and  great  anxiety.

    This  is where   the  analogy  with  the  Ottoman Empire  comes in.  At  the rate  of aggression and  challenge  to the Nigerian  state  it  is pragmatic and realistic  to envisage a future  of  an  Islamic  Nigerian state  run  on the platform  of  Administration of the  Ottoman  Empire  which  was  an  Islamic  state. Indeed  the  role  of the Turks  in the leadership  of the  caliphate  made  interesting  reading to me. I  read  that as the   caliphate  became militarised  and the   Turks got  promoted in the military  the leadership  of the caliphate became  Turkish. If  you substitute Fulani  for Turks and  you  look at  the groups   or  some  of the aggressors against the authority of the Nigerian state  you  have  an idea  of  what  I  am  talking  about.

    In   addition  when  Kemal  Ataturk  founded Turkey  in 1923, he  made  Turks to  abandon Islamic  dressing  and wear  suits and  he banned  Muslim parties and  made  the army  a watch  dog  to throw  out fundamentalist  parties in several  coups  until  Erdogan  who  had  won three  elections in a  row  became  president.  Erdogan  became so powerful  that  he  stopped  military  intervention  and  consolidated democratic  power  when  his  supporters  foiled  a military  coup  by standing in the way of armoured vehicles on my birthday  July  15,   sometime  ago.

    Yet  Turkey  has  a  serious  problem  that  it finds  humiliating  and  embarrassing.  Just  as Nigeria and  Nigerians find  the slide  into terrorism, kidnapping  and insecurity   so  embarrassing  in the face of the government that   seems   complacent with the unfortunate status quo. Turkey  wants  to join  the European  Union.  But  Turkey  is Muslim  and the Europe  is  Christian and  the EU  has  stalled on granting full  membership to Turkey  even  though   Turkey  is a full member  of the NATO,  the military arm  of the    EU.  Even  that  military  connection is under threat with  Turkey  buying  some military  hardware from Russia   recently, against  the provisions and protocols  of  NATO  members  of the military  alliance.

    Tukey’s  non  admission into the EU  also  sheds  some light  on the political  structure of  the  EU  and  the  role  of migration and   multiculturalism  that  has changed  the European  land scape  and split  the EU. Since German Chancellor Angela  Merkel  allowed  1m  immigrants  fleeing war  in the Middle  East, into  Europe  in 2016   the  EU   has  not  been  the  same.  Indeed  key  nations like Italy, Hungary, Czech and  Slovak  republics  have refused  immigrant quotas  from the EU  and  have  tightened  their  borders . This  is  similar  to the current policy  of the Trump  Administration  which is  even  trying  to  build a wall  to  keep  out illegal  immigrants  coming into the US through  Mexico.

    Unlike  the  US  which is  a nation  and a federation, the EU  is a confederation  of 28  states struggling to  become   a federation. The  tension over  migrants  fleeing  wars and invading  Europe  has raised fears amongst  Nationalists in  Europe  giving rise to Islamophobia  and  xenophobia.  Nigeria  is  having similar  problems  and there  is no running   away   from  that grim  situation.  But  Nigeria  unlike  the  EU which  is  confederation is a federal  nation state  of 36  states  and  fears  similar to  those threatening the unity  of the EU are  manifest on the Nigerian  political scene.  This is what  has led    to  calls  by  leading  Nigerian  leaders  for  restructuring. This,  however,   in my view, is  a veiled  call for  a con – federal  Nigerian  state  which  I do  not see any  sitting  Nigerian  government  acceding to.

    In  reaction to  the huge presence of  illegal migrants  and the attendant relation  to massive insecurity in  Nigeria, there  has  been  calls  for government to stop  the tide or invasion. It  is  however  amazing the   Immigration Service  is  compiling  a list  of these  illegal  migrants with  a view of  declaring those after  them  illegal. That  will surely  compound  the security  situation as well as terrorism  and crime  rate  which  the government  has blamed on influx of miscreants  fleeing the war in Libya  through the Sahara  desert.  Government  should sift the list  of illegal  immigrants  and deport those of questionable  disposition  and not grant automatic  citizenship  to  people of dubious character. That  is  the only  way  to  protect  innocent  and bona fide Nigerians in their nation. Once again, long live the Federal Republic of  Nigeria.

  • Change, religion and security

    There  is no denying that  the major security threats   to  the stability of the Nigerian  nation today   are the Boko  Haram  insurgency in the North  East, the Fulani  herdsmen forceful  incursion to the South, nationwide  kidnapping   and  the  banditry in the North western  states of the nation. We  do not need a soothsayer  to tell  us that  if care is not taken  the nation  will slide to anarchy or  another civil war similar  to the one we fought  to  stop  Biafra.  This time  around however religion  seem  to be an un derlying factor  in terms  of   prevailing    cultural  values  which  seem   to have changed for  the worst in terms of ethics and  the religious philosophy  of  the  aggrieved  parties  in the polity. We   now have people    and institutions   which one way  or the other  have   attacked  not only the authority of the state but  have   also established  an    immoral  mantra  that  money  can  buy anything and  that  those  who  have power  and money  can  always get away  with  murder or  anything. This  is happening   regardless  of the rule of law  that we profess to practice  in our peculiar  type  of ‘end justifies  the means democracy’    that  seems  to be perched   dangerously  on the edge of  a precipice in the last  few  months.

    I   call   this    phenomenon or change Cliff  edge  politics   and   it can  be characterized as the politics  of  change that  cannot  be managed because  as  someone said  sometime  ago,  change  management  is an  oxymoron. But  to say  that one cannot  foresee the looming change is  to  me   a fallacy  for  the simple reason  that   the  consequences  of  some actions and inactions  are so clear  and predictable that  it  is an  exercise  in delusion    to think  that  they  will  not  happen.  The  scale  may  not  be manageable   but  the consequences are predictable and  mostly, are  not lost  in  plain sight.

    That  unfortunately   is the situation  that  Nigeria  finds itself   with  regard  to the security  threats  I have  identified  before   and  I  will  show  why  later. It  is the same situation that  the UK  finds itself   with  its Brexit  referendum of 2016 and  the emergence  this week   of  Boris  Johnson  as the new  and  14th  PM of  Britain in the  era of Queen  Elizabeth 11. Of  course  that is  also  why the US has   a leader  like  Donald  Trump  who  is  overturning  American   values  and culture  in  away  never seen  before since he won the US  presidency  in 2016.  However   for  now  I  will  show  the   various  developments in Nigeria,  especially, and   Britain   that  illustrate   in these  nations that  their lack  of  moral  values and    mindless   pursuit   of   power  have  led    to  their present state  of  political anxiety, uncertainty    and insecurity. I will  also  show  that  the dismal  changes going on in these nations   did  not happen  overnight   and  that  they  did  not  walk  blindfolded   into  the brick walls  that  now  engulf  their  political  systems and government. They   got  to  the precarious  political  tension and change  going on in their  society with  their  eyes  wide open and  with  knowledge  of the predictable consequences   of their  actions , policies  and inactions.

    Starting with  Nigeria  it is clear  that  the  handwriting  had been on the wall  for sometime .Myetti Allah, the umbrella body  for  the Fulani  herdsmen  is  a recent  phenomenon.  But  now it has been  ranked on the same  level  with  major  cultural  groups like Arewa,  Ohaneze  and Afenifere  by the presidency. Myetti  Allah  in my view is like a trade  union or  occupational  institution with  the task of  protecting the interests  of herdsmen. Now  its  voice  is loudest  in telling off the rest  of the nation that  the herdsmen  must  have their way    with    their   cattle, with   impunity   all   over Nigeria.   They    also   have their  say,   all the way.  And  from all  indications  Myetti   Allah has the ears of the government  far  more than  the other cultural  groups   in the  nation  which  are  now treated  like noisy   dinosaurs   and anachronisms    by  the presidency .Similarly   the  Shiites  Muslims in Nigeria  have  been taking  the law into their hands  for  sometime. They  attacked  the police  and  killed  innocent Nigerians in   a  demonstration in Abuja  this week. Before  that they  had  attacked the National  Assembly  and  we  have not  heard that  any of them  had  been  arraigned  as a deterrent. Their   grouse  is that their leader  and his wife have  been  detained  and  a court order  to release them  has  been  flouted by government  which  is still detaining  the couple . But  two  wrongs  cannot   make  a right. Government  should  not flout  court  orders  un less  it  is  claiming  that  we run  a government  that does   not respect    the rule of  law.  The  Shiites  too  cannot  be fighting the government  boldly  on the streets  as  that  is an  insurgency  which  is treason against  the Nigerian  state  and the punishment is    the   death  penalty.  But  the odds  have  been clear  to both sides  ever  since  and the  consequences of taking on a government   that  does  not respect its own  courts  can  only  be more  insecurity  and predictable  anarchy. There  is therefore  urgent  need  for  both parties  to  pull back  from the brink   of this  violent  change of  confrontation in  dealing with each other.

    It  is  needless  to mention  that  Islam  is a ‘driving force  of the tension  in the land. To  say  that  is not to  acknowledge that  Islam  is  not a religion  of peace.  But  what of Christianity  that is the next  major  religion  in Nigeria.? For  any Nigerian  especially a Christian  like me to gloat  at Muslims  because of Boko  Haram and  the Shiites or Myetti  Allah is to behave like the proverbial ostrich with the head  buried in the sand.  This  is  because the so  called Pentecostal  or conservative churches  have unleashed such  a drive of materialism  on their  members that is driving  them to penury in the quest  for salvation. Salvation is being peddled like  the Popes sold  indulgencies in the days when the Church was the state in ancient  history.  Financial  targets are  being imposed on church  goers and  it is being   made imperative that such targets  are kept or such  churches  and their  leaders   are mocked as ungrateful  for  God’s  mercies  when  they  do not meet such targets. When  they  do  their  sins are  forgiven  and their  prosperity  guaranteed. It  is like the prosperity  gospel  that has been the flagship of the American  led pastors in  Nigeria who  preach that God  as  it were did not create anyone  to be poor. That  explains  why  pastors in Nigeria  today  are the most  eligible  bachelors and  clergy  men and their families  look  healthier   and   better   fed  than their  thinning,  hungry  looking,   ever   complaining    and angry  congregation. To  me such  ecclesiastical  tyranny  and  repression  is on the same scale  as the violence and  terrorism of Fulanisation  and   Islamisation.

    Religious  repression in any form is unethical  as the Bible  has always reiterated  down  the ages that  you  cannot  serve God  and Mammon. Religious  leaders in their  commercialization  drive  should  be told  that the principle of  Caveat Emptor, Buyer  Beware can  be spiritual  too and it flows  up and down. They  too  can  bring the change that pulls Nigeria back  from the brink to  promote  peace  and whittle  down the prospects  of instability  or insecurity   starring us in the face for now.

    In  the case of the UK  and its  Brexit  ordeal,  moral  values  too took a decline along the way that  made Boris Johnson  the new PM this  week. Boris’ journey  to 10  Downing Street   illustrates the nature of  UK politics in the Brexit  era.  Mendacity  played a major  role. The  Brexiteers  led by Boris frightened  the British  falsely on the cost  of maintaining  UK  membership   of the EU and  the people  believed  them  only to  find  out after the referendum of 2016 to leave the EU, that  the figures did  not  add up  on  the cost  of membership.  In  addition the Cameron  government was so confident the voters would vote Remain that it  did not have  a plan  to exit . The  EU leaders found this  hard   to  believe but sought  to deter a break up of the EU by  making the divorce costly  for  the UK. Now  that arch Brexiteer Boris Johnson  is in the saddle  one can  foresee a real Brexit  but there is no doubting that a house built on a foundation of sand  and false  claims  cannot stand. The  change in leadership in Britain last week  is going to be a bitter pill  for  both the EU and  UK   to swallow and  is going to be a huge test of the Monarchical  and Parliamentary System that  has  been  the  pride of British  democracy.

    It used  to be said  that   the  monarchy  is  the backbone and stability  of British  democracy  and  there is a saying in Political  Science that ‘with the Queen in Buckingham Palace,  every   Briton  sleeps well  in his bed ‘.  Certainly, whether   that  sleep    is  sound  or disturbed  will  be determined  by  the premiership of Boris  Johnson  in the coming days and months of  haggling over a No  Deal  Brexit . Once  again long live the Federal  Republic of Nigeria.

  • Diplomacy, Leaders and the Big Lie

    In the era of fake news, rampant social media and elections hacking that we are in nowadays,  credibility and fair hearing seem to have taken a flight out of the window of both human relations and governance.  Indeed   the  conduct of global  diplomacy, international trade  and regional  politics have bent in the direction of US President  Donald Trump’s daily  tweets on important   issues  like trade  and tariffs, global  and local  migrations and  especially  the prospects of the third world  war starting from  the much respected and much  protected Strait  of  Homuz  from where  most of the world’s oil  is transported  to Europe  and the rest  of the world .

    In   addition,  the world’s leading news organisations and media giants, in taking on Donald Trump’s tweets and undoing his credibility,  have behaved like  the proverbial  ostrich with its head  buried in the sand. Global  news   merchants   and controllers  have submitted  their credibility,     professionalism  ,   and  integrity    to sensationalism and     wild  spontaineity  in allowing leaks  to take priority  over  facts  and in the process threatening  the conduct  of diplomacy, international  relations  and  consequently  the political stability  of nation  states as we know them  today . Nothing   can be more  appropriate  in illustrating this than  this   week’s  resignation of the UK ambassador  in the US  over  the publication of a confidential advice he gave to the British  government and the  leaking of that letter to which  the US  President hurled  insults at the Ambassador  and asked US  diplomats  not to deal with the unfortunate  Ambassador. To  me  the British  government  has succumbed  to blackmail  from the US President  in allowing  its ambassador  to  resign when  it should  have rejected such  resignation,  recall   its ambassador   and   deny  the content  of the leaked letter. That  would  have been  good  old  diplomacy  that  allowed for  the maintenance of  permanent   national  interests at  all  costs  and  not  personal  relations  with Donald  Trump  which   the UK authorities  have allowed to influence  their decision  on the Ambassador .

    It  will  certainly   not  be the first  time  that a denial   is used to nail  the coffin  of a real or  potential deterioration of bilateral and    international  relations or  even  multiethnic relations in any  political  system, be it  a confederation or a federation   even   like  Nigeria    and  I will  give examples . Former  French  President Valery  Giscard  D’estang    was once accused  of  taking an  unusual  gift  from another Head of state, President Jean  Bokassa  of the Central African Republic  but  he quelled  the rumours just  by saying –‘ I  issue  a categorical  denial  and a contemptuous  one’ and the usually cynical  French  public believed  him.  The  scandal  died because the French president  had credibility and  the African  leader  said to have offered him the gift  was bereft  of integrity  and had a reputation  for  corruption.

    In  the same way  in Nigeria  the  government  seems to have put  to rest anxiety  and  apprehension over  the  planned  Ruga  settlements all  over  Nigeria in some  designated  states,   by stopping the project. But  bureaucrats  and government agents involved in the venture  say  it is a laudable  project that would benefit  the  nation  and cannot  be stopped . In declaring  the Ruga  project stopped the government calmed nerves  of those   against  it in the interest of national  stability,   and  security. While   one can call  that a good example of using the big lie to reduce tension in the polity one wonders why  the British, doyen of double  talk diplomacy  suddenly  succumbed   to  Trumperian  tweets and  abandoned  their  own brand of diplomacy  which  has always  been  to deny  the obvious  at all  times.

    Obviously  the UK  government could not take on Trump  because  it  is headless  and PM Theresa  May  is on the way  out  while   those  to succeed  her  are  busy  on how to succeed  her and  Brexit ,  deal  or  no deal. Trump , being the Master of the deal,   this time  around   has  undermined  British  leadership  and diplomacy  and has  exposed the UK  as  the junior partner or underdog in the much  vaunted and overrated special  relations  between the two  nations.

    Let  us  now look at  the role of  the British  press in the  entire  UK-US  diplomatic  leak.  In  publishing the letter  which  the newspaper  knew  was confidential diplomatic advice  to government the newspaper  violated its own  professionalism and  patriotism  as a publisher . It  has put itself in the  same league  with Wiki Leaks and the US military computer analyst  who  released US  government information   and  is  now hiding in Russia. What  is wrong in confiding  in the UK  government  that  it has the information and  the government  should  put in place security not to allow  future  leaks?  Obviously  the prospect of  making  public  ridicule  of  Donald  Trump  was too attractive  for  the publication to enjoy  that  it did  not take into  consideration  the career of  the ambassador   when  indeed  what  he wrote was  also  the idea  of  the   truth  circulating  in the anti Trump  western media  generally . The  timid UK  government has said  it would put  in place a probe on the how  and why of the leak  but that is like locking the stable doors after the  horses  have  bolted.

    Lastly  let  us look  at the security  situation in Nigeria     and  the storming of the National  Assembly in Abuja  by  the Shia Muslims  whose leader has  been in state  custody  for some time. The  report  was most alarming because the  legislators  were  said  to be unaware  of what was happening around them  for  sometime.  That  means  that   the security of our legislators  was in jeorpady .  The  attackers  must  have good intelligence  to  know when  to  attack  and  the vulnerability  of the security  of  our  legislature .  That  is very  bad indeed and it shows the barrenness  of the big lie we  have   been told  that  the  security of the  Nigerian  state  is  guaranteed . This  same  religious sect  waylaid  the  entourage  of the Nigerian army  Chief  some time in Zaria  . This  was how  Maitasine  started  before it was  mowed down in Kano  by the  military  regime  in power  later. Boko  Haram   we  are told is  being  contained  but  it keeps  killing Nigerians in the  North East  without  relenting  and  it is clear  that  it is a big  lie  that  it has been  defeated. While  it may  be alright   to  tell  the big   lie  to  make  people quiet  it is unsafe to tell  it in the face of   terrorists  besieging  the National  Assembly. Just  like the Storming of the  Bastille during the French  Revolution  of  1789  altered  the face of democracy in France Nigerian  legislators  should put their  house  and  security  in order. This  is because if they  are  not safe in  making laws, then  the rule  of  law is indeed under threat in Nigeria. And   that is not a lying  matter, big or small.

     

  • Lead, follow or get out of the way

    AT  a  Nigerian   Army  Workshop on Transformation the Chief of Army Staff, Lt  Gen  T K  Buratai reportedly said that lack of commitment and loyalty on the part of   a few soldiers and officers at the war front in the fight against  insurgency has made the war   against  terrorism  unsuccessful and protracted. The  army  leader  asked such  non committed  soldiers  to’ lead, follow  or get out of the way ‘.  At  an earlier army workshop  the Nigerian Army  boss  had  identified  joblessness   of   youths  as a potent source of insecurity  in the nation.  At  a meeting  recently  on    National  Security  chaired  by the Vice President of Nigeria   Prof   Yemi  Osinbajo, the National  Security Adviser Maj – Gen  Babagana Monguno  announced  that the Federal  Government will  ban  the Almajiri system where they occur  in Nigeria because the presence  of unemployed youths  roaming about in many parts  of the nation is a danger to the security of the nation.  These  three issues engage our thoughts today  even as we wait  in   deep   anxiety   that  the downing    of  a  US  surveillance drone  by the  Iranians  will  not lead  to another round of violence  in the Middle East  that will escalate  into a third World  War.

    On  reading that Lt  Gen  Buratai  had  asked  the few  errant  and disloyal  troops to lead  follow or get out  I tried to find  out  the source  of  the order  and I  discovered  that there is a book  by  that title   and  that the famous US General  Patton   had  told  his troops  in   fierce battles to  – ‘ lead, follow or get  the hell out of my way ‘.  So  there  was  nothing  unusual  in Nigeria’s  General  Buratai  highlighting  lack  of commitment or disloyalty  in the Nigerian  army  finding it difficult  to defeat Boko  Haram.  Indeed  I  had  watched  the video titled ‘Patton ‘in which the famous American hero  of the film  Gen  Patton   slapped a US  soldier   he   called  a coward   for  crying  on  his bed during the General’s  hospital  visit to  wounded US  soldiers.  Since   the press  was present during the visit there was an uproar at the time and the US authorities  asked   General  Patton  to  apologise  which   he  did.  But  the point had been  made that  he would  not brook unpatriotic  or disloyal  soldiers and officers under his command.

    In   the same manner Lt  Gen Buratai  should  be commended for  being frank  and brave enough to  highlight a major  weakness in our fight against bloody   insurgency.  He  cited many instances where  lack  of commitment  was the bane of the fight against  terrorism.  Some  have called for his resignation  if he too cannot lead,  but   I  beg  to differ.  If  he resigns  he would be unpatriotic  too. In  fact  he has been  brave  in owning  up to  a dangerous in- house  factor  militating against  the war  to defeat Boko  Haram. Buratai  in my mind  has stopped being politically  correct  and has  told his men like another  American  General  told  his officers  and men – ‘ We  have seen  the enemy  and the enemy  is  us ‘.  My  advice  to the   Nigerian  Army  Chief is  to put in place measures to  deter and punish  cowards  in uniform in the Nigerian  army at  the war  front  of the fight  against  Islamic terrorism  which Boko  Haram really  is.  If  he does his home work well he will  find  religion at work  in the disloyalty  and cowardice  of those  few  of his officers and men  who  have  showed  lack  of commitment   and disloyalty in the fight  against  the insurgency and terrorism  of  Boko  Haram.  He  should probe further and look  over his  shoulders as he  does  so.  For  now  his political  incorrectness and candor while   very   bold,  is  but   the tip  of the iceberg.

    Similarly, the revelation by the NSA  that the Almajiri  system  will  be banned in Nigeria  and free  education provided in the areas affected,  is a welcome  development. The  NSA  has  rightly  identified  implementation as a major  problem  by saying that  the Federal  Government  will  ensure the  implementation of the policy in the areas  where the Almajiris  exist.   That, though,   is better  said  than  done.  The  reality is that   the  Almajiri system  is a Northern  phenomenon  and is a real  wonder that it has not been  annihilated  given its threat to security and development  in the Northern  part of the  nation.  This  is in spite  of the fact that the balance  of power  and national   leadership  has  favored    the North  more than the South  in Nigeria. The  Almajiri  system   was meant  to be subdued  during the military  era  when  Basic Primary  Education  was introduced  and was never  effectively  carried out in the North. In  fact  an  Area  military  Commander in the then  North East  during military  rule  reported the State Governor for  negligence to   the Federal  Military    government in Lagos  for  not  implementing   BPE in the North East  because school  children in Maiduguri  were busy  learning  Arabic  under  dogonyaro   trees    from  Mallams  during  school  hours  when  they  should  be in  government schools  for  their    education. Later  the military  created six  states out of the former North East  where BPE  was largely  in effective. It  was  no wonder then  that  years later Boko  Haram  sprang out  of the North  East  with the slogan –  No,  to  Western  Education. In  retrospect  one should wonder if  Boko  Haram  is not a response or defiance of  BPE.  This is what the NSA  should  find  out as the nation  engages its gears to fight  and defeat  both Boko  Haram  and  Almajiris,  as  they both  feathers  of the same bird feeding terrorism and banditry  in our  political  system.

    On  the imminent  or probable war between Iran  and the US one  can  tell  both  nations to lead, fight  or  get  out of the way, so  the world at large can  have peace of mind. Indeed  I suspect  the Iranians  have  more  stomach  and anger  for  a fight  than  the  American  president  who  is looking for  a deal   and  wants the Iranians  to  call  him  for talks. But diplomacy  is different from deals  and wars are not fought by calling the media fake news  and making  20 tweets in a day on foreign  policy.  Of  course Trump  should  find out from Former US army  boss  Colin  Powell   who  before the US invaded  Iraq in the first  Gulf  War  told  a press  conference  about Saddam  Hussein  that  -‘ we are  going to encircle his army, then kill it.’  As  if  Iraq  was  some snake.  A  second  Gulf War  was fought  to subdue  Saddam  and Iraq. That  blew  up  into Al  Qada and ISIS  and   those  were fed in terms of leadership  by the remnants  of the Iraqi  army  that  America  boasted it would kill.

    Now  another US leader is threatening to go to war with Iran and thinks it business as usual. My  advice  to the US  is  to study, if not  too late,    the ideology  of Shia Islam  to  understand how  Iran is different from Iraq.  Iraq   has  majority Shias subdued  by the minority Sunnis   during   Saddam  Hussein’s   long rule.  The  American invasion of Iraq  and democratisation  gave power  to the Shias in Iraq.  Iran  on the other hand is  a  theocracy  and the Ayatollas  are  infallible.  In  addition  the concept of suicide in confrontations  is part and parcel  of their  religion. If  the Ayatollas  give the word  to fight the US   and  refuse  Trump’s bait of  a diplomatic call from Iran, then  the Iranians  will  fight to the last  man with technological  expertise  and finesse  that  the US never  expects. This  time  around  the American  president is putting his nation in the path  of  a  suicide  bomber and  unless he has a charmed life like the    proverbial  cat  with  nine  lives,  he  should  be extremely  careful  in trying to humiliate an  ancient  civilization like  Iran  either  militarily  or diplomatically.  A  word is enough for  the wise .  Once again  long live the Federal  Republic of Nigeria.

     

  • Democracy, checks and public opinion

    NIGERIA   has  finally  inaugurated its June 12 Democracy Day  with a long speech  by our Head of State and  President on the day. That  speech  by our  president showed  clearly  that  he knows  Nigeria and  its problems like the back  of his hand  but is  asking for time and  understanding of his  mode of  operation in tackling the challenges.  As  a Nigerian,  and a patriotic one too, I   will not  offer an opinion on that  June  12  speech in  which  the president traced  his  personal  history  and contribution right from his free  education as a student, to the War  Colleges in the US and  India, up  to his role as  a  warrior in  the   civil  war  fought  to keep  Nigeria one. I  was moved  by the speech  really  and  I wonder  why  the Senate  did  not go ahead  and discuss it.  That  refusal  however  and the way and  manner the National  Assembly   leadership  emerged  with full on line prime time   media  coverage  of  the election of the principal  officers,  provides  some food  for  thought today.  That  together  with  a letter purportedly  written  by  MKO  to  late  Human  Rights  lawyer  Gani  Fawehimi  in which  he commented  on  the relationship between the  law  and public  opinion with  regard to  his lost  mandate form  the kernel  of our discussion  today. In  fact  my mission today  is to  see  the opinion  MKO  expressed  on the legality  of his mandate in the light  of the  much  publicized  leadership election in the National  Assembly   this  week. But   first   I    have  to state  what  MKO, famous  prisoner now  post humously  honoured with  naming of the National Stadium in Abuja   after   him, actually  said.

    According to MKO’s,  letter the former Secretary General  of  the  Commonwealth  told  MKO  that  he  was seeking  legal  opinion on the currency of his June  12  mandate. Mko said  he  bluntly  told  him  or  asked  what  his locus  was in seeking legal  opinion on his  mandate and  he did that eye ball  to  eye ball.  He  then   proceeded  to tell  the distinguished  diplomat that  nagging  political  problems  do not  always   lend themselves  to legal  opinions and that  the  way  and manner of public opinion are not  dictated  by the fine  points  of  the law. According to the report on this letter,  MKO died two  days later  but it was clear  he was assuring Gani  Fawehimi that  he  would  not betray  his mandate  and  that  the truth  will  prevail.  Which  is what  finally  happened and June  12 has  now become our Democracy  Day  which  is  huge tribute to  MKO’s  tenacity  and  principle  that his  mandate  was   not for sale and  he is indeed the Martyr  of  Nigeria’s  democracy. This  is  a sharp  contrast  to the  brutal  envy  and designs of those who ridiculed MKO’s  mandate  by saying  he  was not  the Messiah  of  our politics  and  democracy.  Such  leaders instituted May  29  as  our democracy  day  and now the Buhari  Administration   has  bowed to public opinion and cast  aside May  29 and  has passed  bill to the National  Assembly  to make the law that  June 12 becomes our Democracy   Day. Really  one can recall  the saying that ‘the mills of justice may grind slowly, but they  grind exceedingly well‘. I  can  imagine  MKO, the  man of endless  proverbs with  his   wide   toothy   grin,  wherever he is in the universe  raising   his arm  in his   famous  V victory  sign   and  signing off  on his  new  June   12  democracy  day with  another  fine proverb   chuckling   satisfactorily   that  ‘he  who  laughs last, laughs best.’  May  his  great  soul  rest  in peace Amen.

    Let  us now ally   the  June 12 developments  we have identified  with  the  actions  of our  legislature in the first  and second term of the Buhari  Adminstration . Of  course  the ruling party.  APC has  learnt  a hard  lesson  from the way the former Senate President  hijacked that  position in 2015 and kept it against  all  odds   to the chagrin and vexation of a  ruling  party to which he belonged at the onset before  defecting to the PDP. ’ Once  beaten twice shy  ‘was the  motto  of APC this  time  around. But  Nigerians  need   not have been exposed  to the long,  time wasting election of  these  leaders, because it is apparent that  our legislators  once elected become immune  to public opinion with  regard  to  benefits of democracy  that Nigerians  who elected  them  should  enjoy. In addition it is questionable that the present legislature  can  perform its legal  function of checking the executive powers  given the way and manner the APC leaders of the legislature emerged  in landslide victories  at  the carnival  of legislative elections. Will  the present legislature provide the oversight and checks and balances  expected in a presidential  system  which  the Saraki senate provided,  albeit  by  default from a stolen senate presidency?  More  importantly  will   the new legislative  leadership  give its  word now that budget  padding will   be a thing of the past and not done secretly  now  that the legislature is  in league with the executive. The  president has roundly  condemned the last Speaker and Senate president for delaying the economic  program of his government with their hostility and we hope this  new legislature  will  speed  up  things but within  the ambits  of  the rule  of  law.

    Now  with  regard  to the mood or public  opinion our  legislators  need  to  be told  some  home  truths  and  know as MKO   noted  wisely that nagging political  questions do  not  always  follow  legal opinions.  This  is best  illustrated  by the saying  that  the law  could be an ass at times. That  in Nigeria explains why legislators who  are expected to vet  the budget  and prune it in terms of cost control proceed  to balloon its  size  by  adding funds for their constituency  projects to it thus   making a mockery  of the presidential system  of checks and balances.  A    similar  example  exists in the US where  the House of Reps  have the Democrats in majority to  impeach  the America President Donald Trump  but  knows that the Senate where  the Republicans are in majority  will  not play ball.  Another  good example of public  opinion  trumping the law is the situation in the US  again where  the Speaker and the Democratic Party  are not on song in impeaching Donald Trump  because opinion polls  show the public is against it.  Just   as   the legislators are not happy with the US President for   failing,  to honor subpoenas legally  issued  for  Trump’s  government  appointees  to  come and explain their roles in government  which  is a legal  function of the legislators.

    In  effect  then MKO  saw through  the machinations and sloppy  legalisms of those  who wanted  him  to seek legal opinion on his mandate by asking what  their locus  was  and  challenging them  presciently  that the law may  not always   be  at  peace with  public  opinion.  Again  I pay  tribute  to a great  Nigerian  and our nice President  who respects public  opinion and  also  pray  for more victories  for the Eagles and the Falcons  at  the new MKO National  Stadium in Abuja. Once  again  long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

     

  • Democracy, checks and public opinion

    Nigeria   has  finally  inaugurated its June 12 Democracy Day  with a long speech  by our Head of State and  President on the day. That  speech  by our  president showed  clearly  that  he knows  Nigeria and  its problems like the back  of his hand  but is  asking for time and  understanding of his  mode of  operation in tackling the challenges.  As  a Nigerian,  and a patriotic one too, I   will not  offer an opinion on that  June  12  speech in  which  the president traced  his  personal  history  and contribution right from his free  education as a student, to the War  Colleges in the US and  India, up  to his role as  a  warrior in  the   civil  war  fought  to keep  Nigeria one. I  was moved  by the speech  really  and  I wonder  why  the Senate  did  not go ahead  and discuss it.  That  refusal  however  and the way and  manner the National  Assembly   leadership  emerged  with full on line prime time   media  coverage  of  the election of the principal  officers,  provides  some food  for  thought today.  That  together  with  a letter purportedly  written  by  MKO  to  late  Human  Rights  lawyer  Gani  Fawehimi  in which  he commented  on  the relationship between the  law  and public  opinion with  regard to  his lost  mandate form  the kernel  of our discussion  today. In  fact  my mission today  is to  see  the opinion  MKO  expressed  on the legality  of his mandate in the light  of the  much  publicized  leadership election in the National  Assembly   this  week. But   first   I    have  to state  what  MKO, famous  prisoner now  post humously  honoured with  naming of the National Stadium in Abuja   after   him, actually  said.

    According to MKO’s,  letter the former Secretary General  of  the  Commonwealth  told  MKO  that  he  was seeking  legal  opinion on the currency of his June  12  mandate. Mko said  he  bluntly  told  him  or  asked  what  his locus  was in seeking legal  opinion on his  mandate and  he did that eye ball  to  eye ball.  He  then   proceeded  to tell  the distinguished  diplomat that  nagging  political  problems  do not  always   lend themselves  to legal  opinions and that  the  way  and manner of public opinion are not  dictated  by the fine  points  of  the law. According to the report on this letter,  MKO died two  days later  but it was clear  he was assuring Gani  Fawehimi that  he  would  not betray  his mandate  and  that  the truth  will  prevail.  Which  is what  finally  happened and June  12 has  now become our Democracy  Day  which  is  huge tribute to  MKO’s  tenacity  and  principle  that his  mandate  was   not for sale and  he is indeed the Martyr  of  Nigeria’s  democracy. This  is  a sharp  contrast  to the  brutal  envy  and designs of those who ridiculed MKO’s  mandate  by saying  he  was not  the Messiah  of  our politics  and  democracy.  Such  leaders instituted May  29  as  our democracy  day  and now the Buhari  Administration   has  bowed to public opinion and cast  aside May  29 and  has passed  bill to the National  Assembly  to make the law that  June 12 becomes our Democracy   Day. Really  one can recall  the saying that ‘the mills of justice may grind slowly, but they  grind exceedingly well‘. I  can  imagine  MKO, the  man of endless  proverbs with  his   wide   toothy   grin,  wherever he is in the universe  raising   his arm  in his   famous  V victory  sign   and  signing off  on his  new  June   12  democracy  day with  another  fine proverb   chuckling   satisfactorily   that  ‘he  who  laughs last, laughs best.’  May  his  great  soul  rest  in peace Amen.

    Let  us now ally   the  June 12 developments  we have identified  with  the  actions  of our  legislature in the first  and second term of the Buhari  Adminstration . Of  course  the ruling party.  APC has  learnt  a hard  lesson  from the way the former Senate President  hijacked that  position in 2015 and kept it against  all  odds   to the chagrin and vexation of a  ruling  party to which he belonged at the onset before  defecting to the PDP. ’ Once  beaten twice shy  ‘was the  motto  of APC this  time  around. But  Nigerians  need   not have been exposed  to the long,  time wasting election of  these  leaders, because it is apparent that  our legislators  once elected become immune  to public opinion with  regard  to  benefits of democracy  that Nigerians  who elected  them  should  enjoy. In addition it is questionable that the present legislature  can  perform its legal  function of checking the executive powers  given the way and manner the APC leaders of the legislature emerged  in landslide victories  at  the carnival  of legislative elections. Will  the present legislature provide the oversight and checks and balances  expected in a presidential  system  which  the Saraki senate provided,  albeit  by  default from a stolen senate presidency?  More  importantly  will   the new legislative  leadership  give its  word now that budget  padding will   be a thing of the past and not done secretly  now  that the legislature is  in league with the executive. The  president has roundly  condemned the last Speaker and Senate president for delaying the economic  program of his government with their hostility and we hope this  new legislature  will  speed  up  things but within  the ambits  of  the rule  of  law.

    Now  with  regard  to the mood or public  opinion our  legislators  need  to  be told  some  home  truths  and  know as MKO   noted  wisely that nagging political  questions do  not  always  follow  legal opinions.  This  is best  illustrated  by the saying  that  the law  could be an ass at times. That  in Nigeria explains why legislators who  are expected to vet  the budget  and prune it in terms of cost control proceed  to balloon its  size  by  adding funds for their constituency  projects to it thus   making a mockery  of the presidential system  of checks and balances.  A    similar  example  exists in the US where  the House of Reps  have the Democrats in majority to  impeach  the America President Donald Trump  but  knows that the Senate where  the Republicans are in majority  will  not play ball.  Another  good example of public  opinion  trumping the law is the situation in the US  again where  the Speaker and the Democratic Party  are not on song in impeaching Donald Trump  because opinion polls  show the public is against it.  Just   as   the legislators are not happy with the US President for   failing,  to honor subpoenas legally  issued  for  Trump’s  government  appointees  to  come and explain their roles in government  which  is a legal  function of the legislators.

    In  effect  then MKO  saw through  the machinations and sloppy  legalisms of those  who wanted  him  to seek legal opinion on his mandate by asking what  their locus  was  and  challenging them  presciently  that the law may  not always   be  at  peace with  public  opinion.  Again  I pay  tribute  to a great  Nigerian  and our nice President  who respects public  opinion and  also  pray  for more victories  for the Eagles and the Falcons  at  the new MKO National  Stadium in Abuja. Once  again  long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

     

  • Politics, diplomacy and war

    There  was some consternation and indignation  in some religious circles  on the news  that the Nigerian President went  for  a meeting of an  organization of Islamic states –  the  Organisation of Islamic  Cooperation  – OIC – immediately after he  was sworn in on May 29  for a  second term.  The reason  for that   was that  Nigeria  being a secular  state, our head  of state  should  not be seen at  any such  religious  gathering of sovereign states.  The  OIC  boldly   claims   to  be the voice   of the Muslim world  and its aim is to safeguard   and   protect  Muslim interest   and welfare    globally. But  undoubtedly  Nigeria  has not been  a secular  state  for a  long time even  though  the constitution states  clearly  that that is what  it should be. What  is even  more controversial  is the fact  that our  President went to this  meeting of an organization of Islamic  states while  the charge  that  Boko  Haram has as its  objective  the ‘Fulanisation  of West  Africa’ , and   the ‘Islamisation  of Africa’    by a former  Head  of   State    was   still  exploding    like  a bomb. Surely  the interpretation that  keen  observers  of  Nigeria’s political  direction   and  governance   can deduce from the OIC  meeting  attended  by the Nigerian  President is that a diplomatic  and religious  answer  has  been  given  to the Islamisation and Fulanisation question as  something in the offing  or  a possibility  that  Nigeria  is heading in that direction in the  second  term of  the  Buhari  dispensation. Really, the fact  that the  Nigerian  government  has  not  refuted the  Obasanjo   twin accusations on  Islamic  domination of Nigeria  gives cause  for serious concern  which  the  OIC  meeting attendance can only  exacerbate. Which  is  another way  of  saying the OIC  issue was avoidable  in terms of  timing and sensitivity on  the part of  government  and non Muslim Nigerians have cause to  be apprehensive  in terms  of security  and religious freedom as  embedded  in the Nigerian  constitution.

    Since  the advent of  the Boko  Haram  insurgency  in the North East   and the inability of two  administrations  to  contain it,  there  have been concerns by Nigerians over religious   freedom and  Islamic  domination.  Although it has been  argued  that  Boko  Haram was  not  Islamic  by  nature because  it  means ‘No  to Western  education ‘there  is  no denying its  Islamic  orientation  and  objectives  of  conversion of  non Muslims  to its  declared  objective,  which  to propagate  and  spread Islam  even  though it is going about its stated goal  of saying No  to  western  civilization.

    Nigeria  then  is  heading in the direction of  nations  in  Europe  like  Hungary, Czech, Slovak, Poland  and  even  Catholic   Italy. These   are nations  who  are  accusing  other European    governments -like  Germany  and  France-  of   allowing    influx   of  migrants and refugees  from the Middle  East  who are Muslims  into  Europe – of trying  to change the identity of  Europe  because  the immigrants  are Muslims who  will  not integrate and  Europe  is  Christian.  Such  nations  like  Hungary  and Poland   are  being governed  by leaders branded  as anti migrants and populist  and according to some analysts US President  Donald  Trump  who    is  staunchly   anti migrants  is said to be their leader  and shining example. But  in the  UK,  emulation of the Trump  ideals  created Brexit  and has led to the elimination of  Theresa May  as PM. That  has led  to Trump supporting  pro  Brexit  Conservative Party  leaders  to succeed May  during his recent  state  visit  to the UK  after  the lavish  reception given  him by the British  monarch,  Queen  Elizabeth 11.

    While  the   nature  and grandieur  of the Trump  state  visit  highlighted the  special  relationship  between  the US and  Britain,   the issue  of  migration exposed  some sour  points of  religious  freedom and  diplomacy  which  are hangovers of history especially colonization. It  was unimaginable to expect  a Mayor  of  London  or an Opposition  leader to  organize  a demonstration against  a   US President on a state visit  being hosted by the Queen. But  that was what happened when  Sadiq  Khan, the Muslim Mayor of  London  called the US president a  leader  with the mentality of an 11  year  old boy. The  Opposition leader Jeremy  Corbyn  had his request  to meet  the American  president turned down  by Trump  but  Corbyn  was busy  anyway  addressing protesters  against  the state visit  of the US president.  The  Trump   state  visit  highlighted how politically  and  culturally   the  landscape    has changed  in Britain and  how  British   identity   has  changed in terms  of  multiculturalism  which   bred    resentment   and  frustration, leading to   identity  crisis   culminating   in the Brexit vote that has  greatly  divided a once solid   United  Kingdom, now  in the throes  of  Brexit  pain  and delivery.

    In   the  Middle  East  the drums of war  have   been  beating for some time especially   since Trump  appointed the mustachioed  John  Bolton  as his National  security  Adviser. The  most  dangerous  flare  up was the attack on some oil  tankers  near  the strategic Straits of Homuz   where  most of the oil  in the Middle  East  flow out to Europe. Iran  plays a key  role  in passing naval  traffic  and oil  cargo through  the  strait  and   some ships  belonging to  Saudi  Arabia were  attacked   recently  and suspicion  was focused  on  Iran. Iran  has  denied  the charge and asked for  an independent investigation by the UN. But  Saudi Arabia  and its Gulf  allies want  Iran  to  be  scapegoated  for the incident and the reason is  not  far fetched and  the US  is  the weapon that the Saudis want  to use  against Iran.

    What   Saudi Arabia is exploiting is  Donald Trump’s  phobia and pledge  that Iran  will  never  have nuclear  power  because  he claims Iran  is  an exporter  and financier   of  Islamic   terrorism.  But  both  Saudi  Arabia  and  Iran  are  promoters  of two  types  of  Islam,  namely Shia[Iran ]  and Sunni    [ Saudi  Arabia].  Mecca  the capital of  Saudi  Arabia  is the capital  of the Muslim  world  and  pilgrims even those from Iran  cannot  but go there for pilgrimage. That  alone should make Iran   and  S, Arabia to close ranks. Instead,  the  Saudis  and Israel, the enemy  of the Muslim  world   are  goading the Americans to go  to  war  and  destroy Iran, a nation  of brilliant  scientists  and  engineers   who  are bound one way or the other to  have nuclear  power  because  their  citizens  have the brains and are  well  educated with  the leadership provided in  their  theocracy, which  the US thinks  it  can  replace  with its brand of  democracy. An    elusive  goal  for the US in  my view  especially nowadays when  democracy  is  not  putting  food on the table  for the poor  of the world  but is simply widening the poverty  gap  between  the rich  and  the poor  and empowering  the very  rich  few at  the expense  of  the starving millions the world over.

    It  is  my view  that  Saudi  Arabia and Iran  should  team  up  and bury  their sectarian  hatchet  to  save  the reputation of  Islam  as a religion of  peace. That  reputation  is being soiled  by  Boko  Haram and  ISIS and  both  Iran, an  Islamic  theocracy  and  Saudi  Arabia, a monarchy  have  the resources, the will  and   the trust  of their  citizens  to lead  the  Muslim  world  in this  regard  in the interest  of world  peace.   Surely   many  parts  of the  world  besieged by fear  of  Islamisation  will  be grateful  for  both nations for  making the world  safe  and never in  doubt  when  people say  Islam  is   a religion of peace .Once  again  long live the Federal  Republic of  Nigeria.