Category: Dayo Sobowale

I  saw  a picture  of the leading traditional rulers of Daura, the President’s  home town seated on the ground while the President sat on a chair  chatting with them and I could not resist an exclamation on how tradition and modernity  have fused happily in that part  of  Nigeria. It  is difficult  to imagine such  a situation in many parts of Nigeria especially the South West  where I am from.  In  an era which the Hate Speech  bill has just  been stopped  the  Senate  due  to public outcry against the death penalty against  those who  criticize those in power, that  Daura scene showed that power and authority should  not be a do  or die affair and that mutual  respect and tolerance  can  be found not only amongst  ordinary  people but also  our leaders whether  traditional or  elected.

It  is my candid  view that while  disagreements may arise amongst leaders from any  aspects of life, religious, social,  economic and political there  should   always be room for dialogue, empathy  and  opportunities to  listen  to  each  other  in spite  of  such  disagreements.  This  last  week there was a meeting of  NATO leaders with US President  Donald Trump  very  much  in attendance while his impeachment proceeding  got  on at the US House of Representatives with four law professors called in to the Judiciary   Committee  to  comment on the integrity of the impeachment  process.  At  the NATO   meeting   the French President  who  had called the organization ‘brain dead‘,   refused to  change his mind and the Turkish  President    also     in attendance   said  he should  have his brain examined instead.  Hateful speech from world leaders in authority   at the top should be called a disgrace   to diplomacy.  But  this really showed that bad  manners is  not a monopoly  of  ordinary  people as it  is  very  much alive amongst  those  who  lead their people and the world with authority   as   well  as with impunity   especially  with expressions of hate.

Hate and hate  speech  should be nipped in the bud but not by hanging as proposed in Nigeria.  In  addition  history  should serve to preserve order and  civilization as we know it  today. It  is in that light that I  look at  a significant event in the Anglican Diocese of Lagos where  a Diocesan  hymn  was adopted recently with the tune of  Nazi  Germany.  Nazism  of course  is an ideology  of hatred associated  with  the  Holocaust in which 6m  Jews  were killed by the Nazis . How a church in Nigeria can choose some  tune associated with Hitler beats the imagination. I pointed this out to the genial Provost of Christ Church Cathedral, Marina Lagos to  no avail. Yet  there  are so many beautiful  tunes  that can  be used to promote  the good work  of the Diocese without the blight, and a bloody one  at that,  of mis association with the murderous  Adolf Hitler who typified hate and  hatred such that in Germany it is  a crime to deny the Holocaust  he unleashed on the Jews. Nigerian Anglicans in  Lagos can do away with a tune that  that has such a tragically violent and bloody  connotation  and history. It was even said that years after Hitler had been defeated, some old  Europeans  still   shuddered   and  retreated  to their WW2 cellars anytime they  heard  this tune. Surely  we  need a sense of history to enjoy a Diocesan song in the Lagos Anglican Diocese.

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I  now take  a look at the NATO meeting and Trump’s impeachment process at the US  congress. To me they are two sides of the same coin with regard to the topic of the day. Democratic tenets were on  display like fireworks   in  both   places and authority was wielded and delivered according to the strength of the majority. Intellectualism and legal  erudition were  aroused to find  a way through  the treacherous labyrinth of politics  and impeachment  and at  the end the process moved on both in NATO  and the US Lower  House.

At  the NATO  meeting US President Donald Trump  was treated like a bull in  Chinaware shop because of his verbal unpredictability. But  in a way,  what  he asked for that  members should pay their official dues as a percentage of their  budget  was  achieved according to NATO  Secretary General  as more members paid than before. In  the UK  where an election was due on Dec 12 the PM   avoided association with the US President so that it would not jeorpadise the election chances of his party.

At  home in the US the Democrats took Donald Trump   to the cleaners  in terms of impeachment  by calling in three  professors in Law  who  pronounced Trump guilty as charged on impeachment with the charges named as corruption, treason, obstruction of justice and obstruction of Congress. However a fourth professor invited by the Republicans disagreed that Trump had any case to answer. The professor from George Washington University Law School Donald Turley asked for caution and care on charging Trump with Impeachment on the grounds that if he is charged with corruption the charges must stick and not be based on inference or hearsay.  He said that the Democrats were  in a hurry and that the charges were not proven and called for caution in dividing the nation. Indeed it was like a call for the divided Judiciary Committee divided by hate to refocus and tarry a while before impeaching an American President. But that call fell on deaf ears as the Democrats used their majority  in accelerating the Impeachment  process. The  Republican  Minority  had its say  full of hate and venom for the Democrats  who  are in majority and carried the day  in moving on with the Impeachment process,  despite the fact that the Republicans insisted that  no single fact witness had appeared  before the Judicial  Committee  on the charges of Impeachment.

What  I found  most fascinating was the way the Democrats  three legal luminaries showed that Trump had committed impeachable  offences. Their fury and anger and hatred for the American President showed on their  faces and the way their  voices  shook with emotion.  Which to me was extravagant as they were expected to be impartial analysts on Impeachment and not prosecutors. On the other hand the Republican professor  witness was a picture in confidence and relaxation in putting his objection to impeachment to the Committee.  He won my heart with his erudition and scholarship in seeming to be objective on a  subject  that  makes  such  an objective a high  horse to mount. He pointed out the dangers of hate and haste in  impeaching a president on inferences that lack legal authority and backing,  and the consequences of hate  and division that  the impeachment  had engendered in dividing the US polity. His  views did not prevail but he offered the Democratic Majority   food  for thought,    and   pause,  which  in their  haste  to impeach  they  could not  afford  to  wait  and  digest  on their  resolute march  to impeach  the American President,  willy  nilly. Once again  long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Dayo Sobowale

I recall a popular Lagos  saying that  roughly translates to the conclusion that when you  see a slanted load on a k-legged person’s head,  the  fault is  not at the top, but the bottom.  I embellish that with another wise saying that   notes   that  when the fish is rotten, the fault is from the head.  These wise  cracks are also in a way scientific, in that they are based on empirical, observational  facts  and they  form the  basis   of my analysis of the topic of the day  from the various events that happened  in the world this week. I  intend to be coldly analytic and avoid   sentiment  because the issues involved are important and sensitive for the survival of ethical  standards and democratic values, which should   drive good  governance,  peace and prosperity in our time and age , especially in Nigeria.

I  will  illustrate my   observations today with events in the US, Nigeria,  the UK, and Israel. In  the US there  is a  hostile,  legislative    albeit  verbal civil war,  going on in the US House of Representatives in the name of the Impeachment proceedings against the 45th  US president, Donald  Trump.  In  Nigeria the Nigerian President  who  got elected on an anti corruption reputation  and integrity, finally  found  his voice  and spoke out against  the waste of budget  padding with lawmakers additional  costs on budgeting, which has slowed down the economic  progress of Nigeria in the last ten years. In  the UK the coming Brexit   election of December 12 has  pitted a very socialist Labor campaign   against  a  high   spending  Tory one in a manner that both parties seem  to have thrown caution on cost  control and well  tried  austerity measures to  the wind in trying to woo  the British electorate,  one  which  has become disenchanted  with the last Parliament and politicians in general,   over the  last  Parliament’s foot dragging and dilly dallying  on   the  manner  of  implementation  of  Britain’s exit from the EU .In   Israel  where  an election was held recently and where the  result  was close, both  front runners  have not been  able to form  a government  and   now  the PM, Benjamin Netanyahu has been found guilty of corruption,  but has accused  his prosecutors  of  a coup  against   his person and government.

Before going to the issues involved in today’s analysis let  me put on note,  the underlying sovereign reputation of these  nations in the comity of nations,  as well  as a brief observation on how they came to the present dispensation.  We  start  with the US which  is the world’s leading presidential  system with the principle of separation of powers that    seems to  be falling to pieces in the Trump presidency with  the Impeachment  proceedings showing clearly  that the US may  not really be  USA  but  a  very  polarized and Divided States of America- DSA.  In  Nigeria the reputation of politicians have always been  that of very corrupt leaders and even right now former  high  ranking  officers and   military  governors literally run the political system  especially  the legislature.  And   even though  the present president has waged an  anti  corruption war based on his honesty  and integrity, there is no denying that corruption is fighting back, even  as more revelations show that  it is becoming more difficult for politicians and bureaucrats to steal and siphon public fund under the  Buhari Administration.

In  the case of the UK and the Brexit election, it  is clear  that Britain  can  no longer cut its coat according to its cloth or size. The cost of running the British Empire and  Colonialism  has made immigration   a political  nightmare  in  Britain and has led to Xenophobia and Islamophobia  culminating  in the Brexit referendum of  2016   and the next  election of December 12, 2019. In  the case of  Israel  the reputation of that  nation is that of a bully  state of the Arab  world   in the Middle  East  now getting  even  more  violent with  the support of the US  President   Donald   Trump  in making life  more difficult  for Palestinians  and making peace between  Israel  and the   Palestinians  an  impossibility in the Trump  era.

Let  us  now look  at the issues involved in each nation,  starting with the US   where  you only  need to look at  the opening statements of the Chairman of the Intelligence Committee, a Democrat  and see  how violently it portrays the US  president to witnesses  and  how it encourages and glorifies pro Democrats  witnesses to  the world and its audience even before they have uttered  a word.  Of  course the ranking Republican  in turn characteristically runs down the Democrats on their Russian interference allegations, the lies and insults on Trump culminating in what  he calls a  phony Impeachment process   that  he  thinks  lacks  merit  and is aimed at disturbing Trump  in running a government  he was elected to run by the US electorate,  and even making sure that he does not get elected in 2020.  Either  way the bitterness has so  deteriorated to the level  of  real  personality  clash and hatred  amongst  the members of the Intelligence  Committee and it is difficult  to  see a peaceful resolution of the process before it goes to the Senate  where Trump’s  Republican  hold  the ace . Definitely  in the US  Lower  House for  now,  one can say  that between the Republicans and the Democrats on this Impeachment process,  there  is no love lost and   it is ‘every  body  for  himself  and   the  devil take the hindmost  ‘in the pursuit  or  defence,  of  President Trump on Impeachment.  That  however is not the spirit of the separation of powers and checks and balances  supposedly   inherent  in the US  Constitution, as the US founding fathers  spelt  out at the beginning of the American  Republic.

In  Nigeria the report of the ICPC   together   with   the Office   of the  Secretary    to the government   showed  clearly  that  the  anti  corruption  body  has  its hands  full  in exposing corruption in all arms of  government  in Nigeria. The  murk  of  corruption is really  deep  and the fact that the President  can  tell the legislature that it has nothing to  show  for the over   one trillion naira it has spent on constituency  projects it has forced on the government to have the budget passed, over the last ten years,  showed  that  the government  is  not succumbing to blackmail and has not  gone  to sleep while the thatched house  of  governance  and budgeting in   Nigeria,   is on fire.

In   Britain the  new election has given the Labor and  Conservative  Parties new opportunities to go back  to their ideological  roots  and even  to adapt  or change their political  course to get power at the elections. Labor is brazenly socialist  and  almost  Marxist in  terms of   planned  nationalization of parastatals  and infrastructure. This is in contrast   to the privatization and marketization of the Thatcher era  that  made the   fear of  nationalization  an  issue  that gave her power then. The  Tories  have promised to spend money on welfare like they have not  done before. To  me pragmatism  and reality  have fused on  either side  and the  British  people will  profit  from this Brexit  or No  Brexit  election of December 12, no  matter who  wins.

With  regard to Israel it  is clear  that Benjamin Netanyahu  is digging in against the rule of law  and the political  establishment in Israel. It  is clear  he has learnt  a few things from his mentor in Washington who is the US President. Show  me your friends and I will tell you who you are is an applicable  saying here. But  can he last and can  he act with the same confidence that has made him the longest serving Israeli  PM? Corruption corrodes authority and  leadership,   and  Netanyahu knows his people  are battle hardened and will  not cower in challenging his mettle  and integrity  to lead  Israel with the sword  of Damocles of Corruption  hanging around his neck. Just  as that of Impeachment  has become a luggage  of  contraband on the back of his mentor in Washington. Once  again long live  the Federal  Republic of Nigeria.

GIVEN  the spate of protests in many nations nowadays,  one  can almost say  that  there is a backlash  against not only the  concept of democracy  globally  but  also a great  dissatisfaction with expectations of governance  arising from the elections  with   which those  who  run governments  got  to power  in the first  instance. Nothing  illustrates  this viewpoint  more  vividly than the  political  situation in Bolivia this week  where the President who claimed to have won a recent election fled into Mexico  for  political  asylum, as well  as the start of the Impeachment process in the US House of Reps  where Donald Trump is being held accountable  for  purportedly  using diplomacy and foreign aid to get his political opponent discredited with  corruption on the eve of  the 2020 presidential elections. Interestingly, the person Donald  Trump  defeated in the 2016  elections Hillary  Clinton  on a visit to Britain this week castigated  the British  government for  not  revealing  a government report that   purportedly revealed that there  was foreign interference in past UK elections  before the coming December  elections.

These three  events in Bolivia, Washington   and London capture the  essence of the global  pressure that democracy  is  going through especially  with regard to the legitimacy  that clean elections are supposed to bestow on the leadership of those who  win or claim to have won such  elections. This is because democracy becomes a sham if elections are  not   transparent, free and fair.  In  addition technology  has turned the world  into a global  village and anyone who thinks interference from abroad or other nations in elections in any part of the world can  just  be shut out,  is behaving like the proverbial ostrich with its head buried in the sand.  Globalisation and information technology have made the world borderless more or less and  have  turned the concept of Big Brother is Watching  you into  a real  political engine   that  makes the world a stage in our small  phones and sitting rooms,   without us travelling out to the places we relate with on a daily basis.  Indeed  that explains why the issues we raise today  have universal  application not only for Bolivians,   Americans  or  Britons  but any citizen of the world in any democracy in any part of the world including our own Nigeria.

There  was a time during the Cold War  when the policy of Non Inteference in the internal  affairs of other nations was the vogue in foreign policy  and   diplomacy. That era is   now gone forever, no thanks to technology and telecommunications. But  the business of governance  in  any  democracy   cannot  be totally be divested of  state  secrets,  confidentiality,   loyalty and patriotism . That  really is the difference between what is happening in the US Congress where the president  is being impeached and what Hillary  Clinton could not  understand in calling for the release of  an  election  interference  report on the eve  of the Brexit  election . Political  values in the US are different from those of the UK. Confidentiality is a well-developed and respected value in British democracy and its bureaucratic  establishment. It  is  not the same in US politics where the whistleblower is  celebrated  and  given  protection at the expense of state security and diplomacy. Hillary  Clinton herself was branded  reckless by the CIA  boss before the 2016   elections  for  using her  personal   phone  for state  matters  and would have been disqualified in Britain  from  contesting that  election . Similarly  the grim and treacherous spectacle  of American  diplomats and ambassadors revealing state   secrets and tele conversations between  heads of states still in office  would  not  have happened  in any decent nation but the US over the Trump- Biden Ukraine affair.  Obviously  the American  system  of checks  and balances in the Trump  presidency has become weaponised  and politicized to serve partisan political ends at  the expense of democratic values it is put in place  to cherish  and protect.  Even  if the House impeaches Trump  as it  is proceeding, the Senate which is controlled by his  party  will never play ball and  vote   to impeach him.  That  leaves the issue in the hands  of the electorate for the 2020  elections  which  is going to be about the way and manner of this impeachment  saga.  Which  is almost  the same script that has turned the UK  election   on December 12 in Britain into  a Brexit  election that has turned the electorate against Parliament  which  hitherto was  presumed to  be supreme  but  now has feet of clay for most  politicians in this Brexit  election.

In  Bolivia  from  where President  Evo  Morales fled to  Mexico  one  can  see clear frustrations with democracy and  the electoral system as well as the electoral  monitoring  process which  has  been  internationalized  for election monitoring. Morales claimed he won the election but opposition claimed he rigged it.  The international monitoring body said  he rigged but a neutral body  warned the election monitors  not to politicize the election monitoring system. Who  then is telling the truth?   While  the army came in to create order and stability, the two leaders in line of succession in Bolivia  resigned  and  paved the way for a lady senator next in rank to claim  the presidency. The truth however is that democracy in Bolivia  has  been  badly  battered and it will  take sometime for it  to regain its credibility  and    legitimacy.  For now both the army  and diplomacy   seem    to  have rescued Bolivian democracy and   given that nation peace and stability  after   the post election  violence   and protests.  Mexico  gave asylum and the army pressured  the election rigger  to flee for his life and take refuge in Mexico. But  the army  has  never been a trusted ally of democracy  in any part of the world and the world will  be watching  when, if  and how the elections promised, will  hold in Bolivia.

Let  us remember the saying that charity should begin at home  and take a peep  at the Kogi State election today. There is no doubt that state governor  Yahaya Bello has done a lot for his people.  But  that will be seen in the way the electorate votes today.  Already the President has called for a free  and fair election. This again is the only way to guarantee legitimacy for the winner of the election.  But  the Kaduna state governor  Nasr  El  Rufai  has taken   political   accountability to a new level  by reportedly prostrating before the people of the state and asking them  to forgive the governor for any lapses during his tenure That  may seem like  state cross border   election interference, but it is good  for democracy, transparency and accountability in Nigeria  and Kogi  state. It   also shows that in a democracy power is not  absolute  and is renewable at election time   and that  makes elections the time of reckoning for performing or non performing politicians.  The Kaduna state  governor  should know what power  is  about and how to  claim it as he was quite  hostile to some election monitors in his state  elections  who  wanted to politicize the election monitoring in his state.  Anyway prostrations may  be symbolic and even humbling but at  the end of the day  the ball is in the court of the electorate in Kogi state and it is them  who will decide the next occupant of the state  house in Lokoja. That  is the essence of  elections and that is the beauty of democracy   provided  such elections are free  and fair .Once  again long live  the Federal Republic  of Nigeria.

It is no exaggeration to say that many Nigerians cannot boast of being sure of getting to their destinations any time they go out, either to earn their living or even for any  outing. They  will add that they are  not even sure of getting back home in one piece  each  time they  venture out. This  is not only because of the conditions of the roads,  which the Minister in charge has defended  as not being as bad  as being portrayed  by the media.

The  fear of a journey of no return on a daily basis for Nigerians  stem from the atmosphere on our  roads    as well   as their    dismal  conditions  and again this is not about climate change or the smoke smog that has darkened the skies in far away India. This  is about the violence, the road  rage as well as the pervading anger  and  the vicious   mutual  hostility of Nigerian  road users,  and  the dangerous conditions of the vehicles they  travel in to survive and eke  a living. That  is shown  vividly  in the ways  the tri cyclists  and okada riders turn round in front of  speeding vehicles  as if  challenging the vehicle drivers   to ‘get me if you  can ‘ or ‘  knock  me down  at your peril‘. It  explains why danfo   conductors wave off with dreadful   abuses and  oaths, vehicles  moving  in legitimate   traffic  direction which   the danfos   violate daily with impunity,  often  using uniformed soldiers  and other military  personnel  as fronts for  illegal   passage security.

Overall,  it is as if there is a perennial  daily   class   war  going on,  on  a daily basis   on  Nigerian  roads. The  combatants  are okada  vs car  users,  danfo  versus tricyclists,  car  owners  versus okada  riders  and small vehicle owners  vs jeep  and big saloon  cars owners.  The  okada riders now dominate our main cities and they drive against the traffic,   block  road  junctions and descend in a  pack  to assault any motorist  that is involved  in any accident with them . It is not as if I  am  singling out the okada riders but  I want to show that both they and their customers view other three –  wheel or four   wheel  vehicles and their owners,   as enemies out to run both the okada rider and his customer out of the road and   they  are  ready to abuse and be violent  in protecting what they  perceive as their right of  way,  if not  existence. To  me this is a dangerous  development that  has created a vicious  daily  class  war on our roads   and   that needs to  be nipped in the bud quite urgently.

Let  me state clearly  that the okada rider and tricyclist  have every  right to  earn their living on our roads  and highways but they  do not have to endanger the safety and rights of other road  users and it costs them  nothing to be polite and ask  politely for passage from other vehicles,  instead of taking the law into their hands by violating traffic rules at break neck speed .  What  I am  after today  is that while the politicians and party leaders are  putting heads together to tackle the prevailing and sickening kidnap  of judges in the  nation there is  a daily  danger  that Nigerians  are facing  in terms of the violence and rampant abuse and misuse  of our traffic  rules, by  those in the lower  ranks of society who  probably  are doing this to register their anger with the social inequalities and the huge  economic gap  between the rich and the poor in our  nation.

In  the TV Documentary National Geographic,  wild  dogs  hunt  in packs and can  bring down large animals in a game  of  numbers.

That  however is in the jungle. Today  however I am  talking  about the fear of  Nigerians  that  our roads  are  looking more  like  the jungle  because those earning their living on them  and through  them,  are not obeying the rules of engagement and passage and they  are  endangering the security of  life  property and safe passage of  Nigerians  travelling to work  to earn  a   living. If  innocent  Nigerians are afraid to go out to  earn a living on our roads  they may  decide to form militia or  cartels to protect  themselves and have right of passage to their destinations.  But   such  formations  on protection  is the legitimate  work of the police and army . It  is my advice that it is  urgent  for politicians especially at the local government  level  to come together  to put sanity on our roads and enable people  to  have confidence that  they will go out to work and return  alive.

On  the condition of our roads it  is not surprising that  the Minister of Works  and  former Lagos  State  Governor  Raji  Fashola,  has  said  the situation  is  not as bad as people feel. He  should   however  not be  taken out of context or  vilified  for  saying that. All  he is saying is that    a lot  has been  done under his watch  and one cannot  blame him  for  that. The fact however is that armed  robberies   take place mostly at areas  where the traffic  is slow because  of bad roads  and construction work. Even  in Lagos  this week  those going home were  attacked by thieves and hoodlums on their way  home at night  because  of such developments.  Government  should provide  armed  security  at road  works and road maintenance posts at  night so  that  people can feel  confident  going home from  work.

This  issue  is one that I think  the two  major political parties should  bury  their  hatchets    on  and join forces to attack  and defeat. This is because if  the people who are the electorate cannot travel  on the roads to earn their  living   then  their  confidence  in the political system  will  be sorely   tried  if  not  eroded altogether. That  can lead to voter apathy  or  mistrust   and that  is not good for  democracy.  Good  politicians should  not ignore their environment of which  the roads are  an integral  part for economic and personal survival of those who  put them  in power. Even  in the very rich US  and Britain politicians  join forces to pass   bills on infrastructure   that will  alleviate the sufferings of their electorate  and improve their quality  of   life . In  the US  the Democrats buried  the hatchet  and forgot their  hatred of  Donald  Trump  to pass  his huge infrastructure  bill   on  safe American roads  bridges and highways. In  Britain and with the hullaballoo of Brexit, the Conservatives have promised to   ignore their notorious austerity of the past,  to spend immensely  more on the  roads  and highways  in Britain and the NHS, to  woo  the electorate, post  Brexit  and   surely  the December 12 election will show if the British  electorate  has  forgiven or  is   believing them. Here  in Nigeria it  is not   too  late  to make our roads  safe for all  Nigerians to earn  a living without  the fear that their  lives can  be snuffed out on our roads  through  no fault  of theirs  on a daily  basis.  A stitch in time   surely saves nine. Once  again long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Dayo Sobowale

I  intend  today to  use ambiguities to illustrate the topic of the day,  not necessarily  because I find that convenient  and necessary   but because of  the ways that accepted norms and values in the world democracies have taken such a tumble for the worse, that  it is becoming difficult  to follow political developments and geopolitical  issues  without wondering  if we are still  in the same world that we all  live in.

In  talking of power therefore, I  am  referring to both  electricity and political  power both locally and geopolitically . When  I turn to politics I am  taking   the meaning   of   politics being who gets what, when  and how in any political  system as well  as system- induced changes such as the ones in which   the legislature  curbs   the power of the executive or that in which the executive cuts the power of the judiciary and vice versa.  Similarly  when  I delve into diplomacy today  I am   not  only   affirming the old saying   that in diplomacy  -there are no permanent  friends  and  enemies but permanent  interests  –   but  also  the duplicitous type that  sports  the dictum   or saying that goes thus –  play  me foul  and I play  you  tricky.  Which  unfortunately  seem  to be in vogue  in world politics  and international relations  nowadays.

Let  me now put  some meat  on the skeleton of ambiguities   that  I   have  contrived today,  before I  spice the dish   with very  glaring changes in the concepts that  I want  to  dissect  in this piece. The  first  is the news by our Minister of  Finance, Budget   and   National  Planning  Mrs  Zainab  Ahmed  that  Nigeria  wants to borrow about 3bn dollars  from the World  Bank to  carry  out  reforms  in Nigeria’s energy and electricity sector. Envision that  necessity  ,  crucial for Nigeria’s economic  sanity and compare it with   the letter  that  the  US President  Donald  Trump   sent  to Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan   not  to be a fool  and a devil but  to withdraw Turkish  troops  killing the Kurds inside Syria,  a sovereign state on its own. Lace  this with   the US President retort  to criticism of his   gut   and abrupt   decision to withdraw US troops   from   Syria and his silencing of his questioner  with the answer  that   the  Syria- Turkey  border is not an American  border,  And that he Trump  was elected on the promise  to protect American  borders   and that more importantly he has brought US  troops  home alive from  a foreign  war  and  Americans  are happy with him.

First  of all,  let  me congratulate  the Nigerian  government  for  not giving up on Nigerians  seeing light at the end of the tunnel  in terms of constant and available supply  of electricity needed for   good quality of  life, health and overall  economic development of both the Nigerian citizenry  and its polity. But  I also  sound  a note of warning.

Just as in the fight against  corruption when  government underrated  the power of corruption to fight  back   and is ruing its  consequences,   the government   must  arm itself against   organized    opposition   to its power  reforms   strategies.  This    is because   there  are vested interests ready to  die rather than  see  successful   electricity  reforms  in  Nigeria. The     generators  sellers  have a strong lobby  in ensuring that  power reforms  do  not take off. They  had an  ally  in the Nigerian legislature   before  when a Speaker  notoriously  asked what  the generators sellers would eat  if  the   then NEPA functioned effectively. In  this  present   3bn   dollars  loan  dispensation the Finance Minister should  quickly let the public know the beneficiaries of the new loan.  Is  it the existing   power  distributing    companies   called   discos and   power  generating  companies called  gencos  or are  new ones to come on board ? If there  are to be new ones what will  happen  to the huge investment  of the old  discos and gencos  and     will  there be compensation of any kind?  More  importantly  how  will  government handle oversight function of the  Nigerian  legislature which  had in the past  frustrated tariff  increases that  go with best global practices just  to score cheap political goals  that it is more  patriotic  than those  in charge  of electricity  when indeed it is feathering its own nests at the expense of Nigerians  in dire need of electricity. On disbursing the new loans  on power reforms  the Minister should  look into  the archives  on power reforms  and  be guided by the saying – once bitten, twice shy.

Let  us now look at  the face off between  Turkey and US both  of which  have powerful and highly  ego  centric leaders  who readily  fit the bill  for  diplomatic Rumble  in the Jungle  like the one that Mohammed Ali  faced against the powerful  puncher George Foreman in Zaire sometime ago. Only  this time the Rumble is in the deserts of Syria and not Zaire and the prey  are the Kurds who  have been betrayed by the American President who used them against  ISISS successfully  but abandoned them saying they  are not angels. This is  the second time an American President will betray  those it financed and trained to bring down   the Syrian regime of President  Assad in Syria. Former US President Barack  Obama drew a redline for Assad  when it was discovered that Assad  had used  chemical  weapons against  his people but nothing happened. And now the Kurds have swallowed their pride  and are waiting for Assad  and the Russians to save them  from the murderous Turks  whose  president reportedly  threw into the dust bin Trump’s  letter threatening to destroy Turkey’s  economy if  President  Erdogan  does not withdraw  Turkey’s  army  marching against the Kurds in Syria. Trump  might  still  be able to claim  that  his brand  of diplomacy  is good for the Middle  East  where he lamented   once  that  ‘they are always killing themselves’.  But  his brand of betrayal  diplomacy  is at best a dubious one, even though it has created the embarrassment   for  Russia  not being able to look away as Syria, a Russian  ally  and the reason  Russia intervened in Syria to save the Assad  regime,   is about   to  clash with Turkey,  a new military  business  customer  of the Russians.  Trump  could claim he has made the Middle  East combatants  to   stew in their own urine and has  made it mandatory  for the ambitious Russians  to clean the bloody  mess while he   has kept  American troops  out of harm’s way.  Unfortunately   it will be  difficult to dismiss  such  a claim with a wave of the hand. Like  the Chinese are wont to say on such occasions – we live in interesting times . Once again long live that Federal Republic of Nigeria.

By Dayo Sobowale

Social  institutions can  be forces for good or bad depending on  the political  forces at  play  and the socio economic condition and climate in which such institutions operate.  Two  such  leading social  institutions  in  Nigeria   this week   got   highly   patriotic   as usual,   and as expected given their  illustrious  pedigrees   and literally embarked on sheer   state  building projects, to mark  Nigeria’s Independence on October 1  1960.  The    Island Club  and the Yoruba Tennis Club both located at the urbane Onikan  area of Lagos Island,   hosted  two lectures to mark  Nigeria’s 59TH Independence Anniversary on 4th October  on their  respective premises  The  Island  Club’s Independence lecture was delivered by the Vice  President of Nigeria Prof Yemi Osinbajo and the topic was –‘ The Whole is only as great as  the sum of its parts’. The Yoruba Tennis Club lecture   which was  actually its 93rd Anniversary Public Lecture  was titled ‘Perspectives on  Security   Challenges in Nigeria  from 1999   to 2019;   the Way  Forward‘, and was delivered by the Governor of Ekiti  State, Dr  Kayode  Fayemi. These two  lectures provide  a focus  for our discussion today  along the lines of topical  events in world affairs. Most    especially   the  impeachment  saga   currently  rocking America’s presidential system  of government  as well as the threat of a No Deal Brexit   that  has  literally  become a major assault   on  the concept   rule of Law and constitutionalism in Britain. Which,   hitherto   has  been   a stable parliamentary  monarchy   now    facing great    uncertainty,   given  the way  the current  British PM  Boris  Johnson  is   going about  the execution  of the  result   of the Brexit Referendum of 2016.

We  look  at today’s   topic in the context  that Nigeria is  a  Federal system of government and a Presidential government  based on separation of powers just  like the US. The  two  lectures  will   provide  food   for thought   on   the state of Nigeria’s  federalism given  the brilliant analysis   by the VP of the   evolution of the Nigerian state from regionalism in a Parliamentary democracy  to the need for integration and synergy  in harnessing the strengths  inherent in Nigeria’s   motto  of  ‘unity in diversity.’  In  this regard Prof Osinbajo  showed  vividly  his belief  and conviction that unity and integration are the strengths    of  the Nigerian   federation    and not   its weaknesses    in spite of the challenges facing   the Nigerian  nation and the clamor for restructuring which  emphasizes disintegrative  and con -federal  political   configurations. In  the YTC lecture on Security the Ekiti State  governor showed his expert understanding of the precarious Nigerian security situation but literally  pleaded for time and understanding  of why  the situation seemed insurmountable for  now. Which  is understandable  given the fact  the Governor  is the current Chairman of the ruling APC Governors Forum and a radical suggestion can  threaten the security perspective  that  dog  does not eat  dog. But  as acknowledged  by the governor regardless of whether we have a security policy or not the fact on the ground is that  Boko Haram,   herdsmen killings, kidnapping  and robberies have  broken  loose and are now threatening the   unity  and   integrity of the Nigerian  state  and  have   been  particularly  rampant in the period under review  namely  1999 to  2019. The  present federal  government to which the Governor  can claim to be an eminent  representative  must acknowledge  that this is happening on its watch  since it came into  power  in  2015  and  has been reelected in 2019,   obviously  in the hope that  it will clear  the  security mess decisively, in the best interest of the security and safety of Nigerians and the stability  of the Nigerian state.

Co –incidentally,   both lectures focused on   a pervasive  dysfunctional federalism and lack of synergy in  Nigeria’s   political system  and   vast  security  apparatus. The governor lamented the lack of synergy amongst the security  forces in the nation while the wording of the VP’s topic emphasized  the  allure and panacea  of  integration and synergy. Especially the type that acknowledges that   2  plus 2 is equal  to 5. However in the case of the VP’s  lecture it is   impossible not to discuss  his present travails  of office in which some people are trying  to drag his name in the mud. Indeed a questioner  at   the lecture asked if he felt marginalized  in his office as VP  and  he responded  bravely  and pointedly  that he has chosen not to be marginalized.

To  me and most Nigerians,  some  vested interests  are  just trying to annoy  this VP   out  of office not because  of any misdemeanor  but because of their fear of his potentials to  perform  even better than he has done hitherto.   One  can liken their fear to  of Cassius ‘envy   of Julius Caesar  in Shakespeare’s play  of that  title. Cassius  famously  lamented  why  Caesar ‘bestrode the world  like a Colossus   and we petty  men  must  peer  from  under his trousers ‘Certainly  Osinbajo  is no Caesar  and will   not  by the   Grace of God  and Insha Allah  suffer Caesar’s fate.  But  there is no denying  that  he is indeed   a  Colossus in terms of the skills  and dexterity  he  has brought to play  in the discharge of his responsibilities as our  Vice   President. These  are  God  given  gifts  and if  they  are giving some people sleepless nights, it  is they  who, like   Macbeth,  in  another Shakespeare play  of that name, ‘  have murdered  sleep  and would  sleep  no  more.‘

In  the case of the impeachment  threat  facing the US president from the American House  of Representatives  dominated by the  Democrats, it  is clear  that a lack  of synergy is tearing the American  political  system  apart. Now  we have a president who  has dug in at the White House  and would not participate in his own  liquidation in terms  of collaborating with the legislative arm of government in his impeachment  process. We  have a Speaker  who  acknowledged  that the House  has not launched impeachment process in  open house as required by the law but is using  sub committees   and subpoenas  to  launch  impeachment which is against  the law  but the House  is proceeding still  on that course of impeachment,   all  the same.

Similarly  the British Parliamentary democracy faces an uncertain future given the way Brexit  is  evolving under the premiership of Boris  Johnson . The  courts  have intervened twice and held back   lately    this week,  in preempting the actions of the PM on if,  or  when,  he will  follow or break the  law   in   executing his   Brexit  Deal  or no  Deal   mantra .Surely   this PM  seems  bent on implementing a political  decision regardless of the law or court rulings. That  surely  is not good for the nation that prides itself on having the ‘Mother of Parliaments’.  Brexit  is making October   2019  the longest and most  decisive month in the history of British Democracy  and its   Parliamentary   Monarchy. Till    now  it    has always  been  difficult  to foresee  a dysfunctional British  Parliamentary   system or a United Kingdom  in disunity  and disarray.  Yet,   most   unfortunately,   that is what is starring the British  people and the watching  world in the face now,  right before our eyes. Once again long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

THREE   issues   this  week   illustrate the topic of  today  quite  vividly. The  first  was   the   appeal of the Nigerian army   boss  General   T K  Buratai   calling on religious leaders in the country   to wage a spiritual  war  against    terrorism  especially  that of  Boko  Haram because it is  spiritual  teachings   and ideas   by  preachers   of      religion,  that makes  terrorists   and   suicidal  insurgents    difficult  to defeat  on the battle field. The  second was  the   70th  Anniversary  celebrations  of  the emergence  of Communist  China   in 1949,   with a military  parade pomp  and   pageantry   Beijing, China’s   capital  that  showed  vividly  that  communism has been  a successful  ideology  in terms of  the  leading role and immense  wealth of  China both in terms of economic growth and welfare of its people and  influence both domestically and globally. The  third  was the fury  and anger of US President   Donald  Trump  at a press  conference with  the visiting President of Finland   when  he   directed a questioning   journalist  to  ask  questions from  the visiting president   and proceeded to call  the questioner rude  and the US  media  largely  fake and corrupt.

The  guiding principle   here   today  is that religion is regarded  as an ideology  by the Nigerian  army  boss and I  agree with him for our purpose  here . Whereas in China, which  is communist and atheist, religion is regarded    as  a huge    distraction   and the ideology of communism is the guiding light of the Communist  Party of China  which  has ruled China from  Chairman Mao 70 years ago,  to Chairman Xi  Jinping    who  proudly  took  the salute  from the same podium used  by  Mao70  years ago. In  the US of  the Trump   era,    the  ideology  is democracy which highlights respect for  freedom,   human rights   free speech  and press   freedom which was on collision course with the American president during his spat  with the press in the presence of a foreign president.

Again, a common trend in  the three observations , ideas  or  insults   –  as in the  US  case –  is the threat  of not only    of     any  religion   or  ideology   to  get  militant  or weaponised   in advancing   its ideology or spread in any  nation or  community. That  is why in talking of religious leaders  or ideologists the Nigerian  army chief should  have spoken  specifically   of Islamist  preachers who  have used modern technology and especially hot selling video    messages to  spread  and propagate  their  violent  versions of Islam. This is the crux of the matter. While Islamophobia  is  spreading  in the west  and liberal  democracy is trying to contain it and make it politically  incorrect  for those who   condemn  it, it is also  difficult  for  military  leaders in Nigeria to highlight  the empathy of Nigerian soldiers  for Boko  Haram, given that it is basically an Islamic insurgency   to  which  Muslims can  basically  turn a blind  eye  to, in  spite of its bloody  terrorism in the North  East  of Nigeria. It  is Islamophobia  that  has  given  rise  to the increase of anti –  immigrants  populist  governments  in Europe like Hungary, Austria and Poland  who  have made  life  difficult  for  EU  leaders  on the protocols  of running  an integrated Europe  now  or in the future. Of  course  Donald  Trump  campaigned against immigration and banned migrants from some Islamic  nations  and even recently asked some American  lady  legislators to go back to the ‘shit nations’ they  came from when  they  criticized  his  immigration policy.

However  in contrast  to all these China has zero  tolerance  for  religion and that is reflected in the way it is wickedly isolating the Uighurs a Muslim  caste in a part  of China. China  claims that it is orientating i the Muslim  tribe  on civil  education  and responsibility, but  it is really persecuting these  Muslims officially because  it does  not want to have   a problem of Islamic militancy  or insurgency  within its borders. That  again  is the reality of the matter   with  China as a communist  state that  does not want any competition between it  and any  ideology  be it political  or  religious.

In  calling for spiritual  warfare  against Boko  Haram the  Nigerian army boss  should  be reminded that he was not the first military  leader  to do so. There  was a story  that  a  Nigerian army leader, later President, called for African leaders to mobilise  traditional  herbalists  and juju  practitioners  to  mobilise  their  forces  and spiritual  power  against  the  apartheid regime in S Africa when Nelson Mandela was incarcerated  for  27  years  on Robben  Island   by  the evil  racist  regime.   What  Gen Buratai  is saying  however   in calling    on spiritual  war fare against Boko  Haram  this time around I,   more pragmatic than  the S African  suggestion then  except  that  it   has  failed to hit the nail on the head in terms  of the  catalyst  for  Boko  Haram  which  are the militant Islamic scholars  spreading the ideology  of Islamic  militancy  not only in Nigeria  but  globally  nowadays.

With  regard  to the spat  between the US president  and the media  at  the White House,   it  is necessary  to  look  at  the  matter dispassionately. Trump  was furious because   as   he said   he had   just  given a long explanation on the Ukraine /Biden  matter which  the journalist asked  about,  as if he was not there. The  American  President really showed that he has scant  respect for  those in the US media he branded fake and corrupt. If  as Trump  insisted the journalist  was rude,  he   too   was very  intolerant  and   bad tempered  in the presence of another president who  was his guest. In   this particular  situation the principle  of press freedom and free  speech  was  reduced  to  shambles   and  that  makes  one wonder as  to its quality in  terms  of creating a stable political  system in  an  atmosphere   where  anyone  can say  anything to anybody    and be deemed  to  be acting within his   or  her   rights. I  remember a saying in Political  Science  that says  -‘your  freedom ends where my  nose begins’.   Neither Trump  or the CNN journalist  seem  to have heard that  before,  in the   testy  question and answer  press  conference in the presence of the Finnish  president at the White House this  week.

We  round up with China  which  proudly  displayed its culture and military   ware  in Beijing on October 1 which  incidentally  is Nigeria’s Independence Day too. The  Chinese definitely  were beating their chest  that  day  in terms of economic  progress, political  stability  and the emergence  of China as a diplomatic and economic  power  on the world stage . Apart  from  chasing the US and  Russia  as the military power  of the world,  China has  made huge progress in terms of trade and Information technology. Especially   in the realm of Artificial Intelligence which it has used greatly  to police its people and establish firm  law and order under  communist  rule. The  US’ fierce  trade  war with  China  is   a reaction to the success of China on trade and IT. The  tariffs  and the censorship of Huawei are America’s way  of showing its anxiety on the arrival  of the Chines dragon on the world scene as a potent rival  to American global  power, wealth  and military might. While  human  rights   may  matter, any nation with any ideology that makes life safe and well for its people deserve some commendation, no  matter  how  grudgingly it may  come.  Once  again, long live the Federal  Republic of  Nigeria.