The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Power, credibility and culture

    Power, credibility and culture

    To  the powerful and mighty of this world , be they nations or individuals  , the fear of losing power is the beginning of wisdom . Power  is sweet and some have called it an  aphrodisiac which  stimulates sexual  energy   and   prowess  loved by both  sexes .  Since sex is generally  humanly sweet and cherished ,  the fear of  losing  such a possession and capability can  make  powerful  people anxious , desperate  , unpredictable and  quite   intolerant . Yet  power is fleeting and transient and is not the exclusive possession of any human being or nation . That  explains why the tenure of the powerful is limited to fixed terms  ,making power   renewable  or  lost    at  elections  in democracies   or elongated for long terms or even for life in dictatorships  or  monarchies  and   this is the nature  of political culture  in such diverse   political  cultures  .  This  is the conundrum  of our discussion  today and  we illustrate with examples   all over  the world .

    In  Canada the protests of truck or  trailer drivers blocking the streets of the capital Ottawa  named  Freedom Convoy  frightened the Canadian PM  Justin  Trudeau so much  that he invoked Emergency State powers rarely  used in that nation . In the US an  investigation planted like a land  mine by the defeated Trump Administration  in the Biden presidency that succeeded    it ,  exploded   mightily to say that the Russia collusion hoax  that  plagued the Trump  government in its entire  one term ,  was concocted by Hillary Clinton,   who lost the 2016 US presidential election  to Donald Trump . In Nigeria the Minister  of Interior   Rauf  Aregbesola is trying  to hold on to power in his own state and is up in arms against both his mentor and  party leader , the  Jagaban and the governor  of the state who   served  him  diligently  and successfully , when he was governor of the state for two  terms of eight years . In  Europe the   much  predicted invasion of Ukraine   by  Russia   has not  materialized and  one  cannot but wonder at  the quality of intelligence in both the EU and US and  recall   with  horror  and  distaste , the Iraqi  war of 2003  based on false evidence and   intelligence  from  the US and UK intelligence   communities    that  the Iraqi  leader  Saddam Hussein   possessed  weapons  of mass destruction .

    In  the Canadian Parliament  , after invoking Emergency Powers and asking the police to disperse the Freedom Convoy  by all means , Justin Trudeau reportedly was challenged by a  Jewish   lady  Parliamentarian   of betraying the trust of Canadians in the  way he had treated the Freedom Convoy members . Trudeau  in a reaction to the Freedom Convoy protests had described the convoy  as  ’very   often misogynistic , racist , women haters , science deniers, the fringe . ‘ All  these harsh  words showing stark intolerance and hatred just because the members of this convoy asked that  covid  lockdowns  be withdrawn and vaccination  should  not be a passport for them to drive their trucks  to the US . Trudeau’s  response  was a lesson in political immaturity and  the fear of losing power and control  in Canada  . Worse still  he compared the Jewish MP and  the Convoy members to Nazis  carrying swastikas which  showed  a lack of respect   for  6m  Jews slain  by the Nazis  in Germany during the   second  world war .Really  I doubt  if he can win any election in Canada again .

    In  the US the Durham Probe set  up by Trumps’  Attorney General on  their way  out of power to find out the origin of the Russian hoax  story has made the stunning revelation that Hillary Clinton knew and set  up both lawyers and IT researchers  to  mine  internet data  from both  the servers   at Trump Tower  during the campaign and at the White House  when Trump became president . Hillary  has dismissed the news as typical Trump lies but Durham is not Trump and his conclusion that  the  goal  of the data  mining was to disgrace Trump  cannot be ignored . Even  then this is an ongoing investigation which some have said is worse than even Watergate . The news has been ignored by CNN and other pro Biden  media but definitely  it is some thing that cannot be swept  under the carpet and shows the desperation of American  leaders to cling   to or get power by all means . That has been called tenacity of office when so called third  world leaders are involved but  it seems quite American and very  liberal to do so  now and the world is watching  the unraveling of the Durham probe . Predictably  Trump  has  roared that those involved should be shot for treason. One  thing is clear , Trump  was clairvoyant when  he seemingly  and  for no reason  then  during    the    2016  presidential  campaign    labeled  Hillary –‘ Crooked Hillary ’   .

    In  Osun state the primaries imbroglio has led to the Interior Minster saying so many unexpected things of the leader who brought him to power . I  recall  him praising the same Jagaban at the launching of his book   with   the American  Consul sometime  ago  as  being   generous  doing more for the people like a socialist even though he  does not want to be called that . Aregbesola  though   is an avowed socialist  with  ideological  ties to Communist Cuba. His spat with his former boss can be compared ominously with  that of   a  former  governor of Oyo State and his deputy . The deputy  governor   later became a Minister in a  Federal government of OBJ and the former governor became the Attorney General . Reportedly  the  Minister  of Interior  told  the incoming Attorney General   then that  he had  been called to ‘  eat ‘ and  not to criticize  at a cabinet meeting . Unfortunately the AG  was assassinated later and his killers have not been found .Politics  should  not be a game of life and death  especially  in the struggle  or competition for  power . Similarly  , foul language and abuses  should  not be the language of political  discourse . In  any   sane  political  culture,  loyalty and  not treachery and disloyalty ,   should   be    the reward  for  leaders who  trusted and rewarded their  wards and followers amply  ,  when the going was good .

    Ukraine  is our last destination and from  all indications that nation has not been invaded  according to the  dire  predictions and intelligence of both the US and American leaders .Obviously  credibility on prediction and intelligence has flown  out of the window  in  these  places  . Instead  , during   the   week ,  the German Chancellor  had a meeting in Moscow with  Russian President Vladmir Putin . This has made  nonsense of the   certainty  of war by both the UK PM and  his Defence Minister as well as the US NSA   this week .  Of course Russia has a right to describe their premonition  of   war  as sheer hysterics .The German Chancellor  put  the situation  pragmatically when  he said at a news conference after meeting Putin that peace in Europe must be achieved with Russia and not against it .And he rounded up beautifully    by  stating that it is the damned  business of both Russian and EU leaders  not  to  have  a war in Europe . For  now Ukraine and its leaders can  comfortably boast  like   the news  of the general   who  was   reportedly   killed  in action but survived ,   that news of their  death at the pending Russian invasion have been grossly   exaggerated . Which  means really   that the  hold on power  or its balance between Ukraine and Russia  is  on tentacles  ,  and that is some relief   , globally  ,  for now .

  • Leadership, copycats and compunction

    Leadership, copycats and compunction

    At  the height of the might of the military rule of IBB some military  governors were quoted as  saying  that they would follow IBB blindfolded   into war .It sounded hysterical and even suicidal then to those of us not in the military ,  but with the help of hindsight and mistrust of the military intervention in politics,  then and now  ,  one can see that all what those young governors  were saying was that they believed in the leadership of IBB . I  wonder aloud  today how  many Nigerians in  all works of life can say that of those they follow  as leaders ,  socially , politically  and  economically   today.

    The issue in our nation today and the world at large is a failure of leadership . There is a saying that if the fish is rotten then it starts from the head. Nobody  eats or like rotten fish ,  but  it is what we are being fed  nowadays and the result is predictable . Nutritionally we   should  die of diarrhea or dysentery or dehydration  or a combination  of the three  maladies  . Politically and economically we shall heat  up the polity such that anarchy and insecurity become the order of the day and the law of the jungle that says ‘ might is right ‘  called Hobbes law in philosophy  ,  is  the vogue and  the prevalent rule of society . It  is a situation that is summed up in the desperate saying that  for   survival    it is case  of  ‘every body for himself  and the devil take the hindmost’ . That  is the mood of my analysis today and I offer no apologies as I have none as a concerned Nigerian and a citizen of this world we all inhabit so  precariously .

    Let  me illustrate my concern   here  with    situations   that  rank     from the sublime to the ridiculous ,    and   the  banal but  pragmatic ,  bearing in mind the topic of the day .  I  read   once  that the epitaph    on   the grave   of  Christopher Wren , the great architect  who designed the famous St Paul’s Cathedral in London  and was   buried   there  says –‘If  you must see  his works ,  look around you’   Which  simply means you  don’t  have to look far because the magnificence of his architectural skills and product not only stares you in the face but engulfs you with  its splendor   in that   famous Cathedral . Now  look at the  danger the world faces in the world at large and in Nigeria today and you will feel suffocated with fear and anger at how we found ourselves in such a precarious  situation which is worse than  standing  blindfolded at the edge of a cliff ,  and still  wondering who  led us there .I  will  give examples  today   of leadership   interventions     globally  and locally  that show concern and leave it to you to decide on their   values ,  timeliness , conscience  , participation and regret , if any  .

    In  Nigeria the governor of Niger state reportedly asked  the military  to do more to contain terrorism  in his state while a group of pro democracy  youths in Ondo State asked Nigerians not to be under illusion that a coup is not possible here . Meanwhile in Lagos  according to  reports ,  a group of former senate presidents , some governors and others ,  about 100 ,  met to offer solutions to nagging socio- political  problems facing the nation in order   to create  a salutary   and   conducive   security and political   environment ,  before the 2023 elections ,  both presidential  and general .

    In  Europe ,  the global  theater  and  origin  of the first  and second world wars that sucked in the rest of the world consequently ,  the chances of a third  are razor thin between the US ,EU against  Russia over the imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russia .Yet  the balance of terror and mutual  deterrence which  helped  maintain global  peace and stability during the Cold War  between the former USSR and the US is tilted  in favour of Russia ,  the runt state of the former USSR ,   hell  bent on recreating its former glory under the unbridled,  unrepentant and   nostalgic leadership of the incumbent Russian President Vladmir Putin . But  the west  under the leadership of US President joe Biden is in  disarray because of not only  deep rooted     cultural  values but military  and economic mistrust  and suspicions amongst EU members as well as  NATO  the military  alliance of the EU  . In  addition the US military is trying to play ball with the government of the day of Joe Biden and is more interested in racial  and sexual  matters of diversity , inclusion and equity in the US  armed forces ,  than total  commitment in preparing for war as required of a  global  modern leader-  nation   championing the cause  of human rights and  defending  democracy in the world at large .

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    Now let us look at  the nitty gritty of the quality of leadership  in both the Nigerian and global diplomatic  military  situations and concerns highlighted .  Clearly      the Nigerian  concerns of the Niger state governor , the youth pro  democracy  group from Ondo state and those of the leaders gathered in Lagos are genuine , patriotic  and  responsible but they   are clearly  belated ,  not timeous and well meaning . They  are like closing the stable  doors after the horses have bolted .  This  is s good example of Pontius Pilate washing  his hands after presiding over an execution . The governor is the Chief Security of his state , what  has he done with his  security vote? . By calling on the army  to intervene he is liquidating his democratic mandate in broad daylight . The youths who are pro  democracy  have benefitted immensely  from this return  to democracy since 1979  and have  been applauding corruption and misdemeanor  in high  places  in the name of democracy and one wonders why  they  are suddenly seeing  the  handwriting on the wall and inviting military intervention in a democracy . As  to  the 100  wise men in Lagos they have been active and virile participants  in the highway  to the rot we are in and have no compunction really  to ask  for a change they  have the insolence  and temerity  to seek to manage all over again . We  need a   clean sweep of our Augean stables and they  should  work  in that direction without  visibility given their participation in the past or stay at home to  lick  their wounds  ,if any  , or enjoy  their spoils of   wars  of    democracy ,  which  no doubt are tremendous .  A word should  be enough  for  the wise .

    In  the case of the drums of war beating in  Ukraine I  see a clash  of wills and culture  between a pro  family group of  nations  and  a  gay , LGBT   oriented  majority  nations in the EU and  a divided US . This  was borne out by Hungary  insisting that it would not allow additional NATO troops on its soil in the defence of Ukraine in the eventuality of a Russian invasion  . Of  course Hungary is apprehensive that such troops  may be used to coerce it  later to accept  gay values as the  rest of EU nations .  Even  France whose  leader  went to  Russia to appease  Putin    without  hope  knows that it is a  campaign trip    to shore up the French president’s  image as a state man  for the   next French  presidential elections next April 2022 .Similarly the Ukrainians  who  are being defended by the US and EU are  lamenting that  the west   is    exaggerating the possibility of invasion as that  threat has always been there  with  Ukraine  since the invasion of Crimea by Russia in 2014 . This  is like telling the US and EU not to be more catholic than the Pope in the defence of Ukraine against   a possible t Russian invasion . But   really ,  no one can  know more than the Ukrainians where the shoe  pinches over this looming invasion . A clear  case of the blind leading  the blind  on all sides in world diplomacy  as well as  unfortunately ,  the Nigerian nation  .

  • Machiavelli, mandates and health

    Machiavelli, mandates and health

    Undoubtedly we are in an era of masks and mandates as health precautions and protocols in a pandemic   that has killed millions all over the world. The fact that we mostly don’t wear them in our part of the world and have fewer   deaths than   the masters of the world,   east and west, who dictate the masks and pandemic mandates is not the issue here today.  Indeed the issue here is the name of Machiavelli, the Florentian political scientist of the Italian Renaissance whose political theories were encapsulated in the saying that for the powerful and power mongers of any society, the end justifies the means. Machiavelli’s   political theories were deemed as atheist, amoral, rational and pragmatic and if a leader was described as Machiavellian, he   is   feared as being all these and more.  But in the modern world of today atheism, and immorality are out of it even if common place .Pragmatism and rationalism are more like it in global democracy and our goal here today is to spell that out.

    For   our analysis today we look at the UN, the UK, and Nigeria and I doubt if we have enough time and space for the trio, but the challenge is fascinating in terms of the topic of the day. In the UN   there was a debate on envisaged Russian invasion of Ukraine and the debate was at the instance of the US. In the British House of Commons the PM   Boris   Johnson was grilled and disgraced on  drinks and booze  parties held  in his  official   residence  during pandemic lockdowns on which his government enacted laws  to implement for  public health and safety. In  Nigeria we  have a president who  has outwitted the pandemic personally and officially, but who has ignored all accusations that he has been partisan in  his choice of security chiefs even as the insecurity situations worsens and people are being killed in the north from which he claimed  his mandates  for two terms of office,  as constitutionally allowed.

    In  the UN Security Council Meeting which I  have  deliberately  called a debate there were threats and counter threats  from the convener, the US and  the accused, Russia. Generally however the world knows that the UN is a toothless bull dog and a tireless debating workshop, but the spectacle  was  quite worth the while,   most  amusing and of course Machiavellian on all fronts. The US angle is that it should not be accused that it did not warn the world in case Russia eventually invades and annexes Ukraine,   as it did Crimea, a part of Ukraine in 2014. The US showed evidence that Russia has amassed over 130,000 Russian troops at Ukraine’s border which is ominous enough about Russia’s intentions and ambitions on Ukraine. The US was also aware that the Russian President Vladmir Putin recently asserted that the Russians and Ukrainians are one indivisible people. Yet the west is touting Ukrainian sovereignty and independence in the face of such historical and aggressive Russian military encirclement.

    Such US rhetoric reminds one of a similar one the same US rendered on Syria and drew a red line to deal with Syria for killing its people with chemical weapons during the Obama era   and nothing happened. Indeed the Russians returned to Syria after that as they had during the reign of Haffez Assad, the   father of the present president of Syria the US accused of killing his people with chemical weapons. Now we have  a Biden Administration  which  is an extension of the Obama one  and  it will be foolhardy to expect Russia  to take any US  threat on Ukraine  seriously given the track record   of   the   toothless  bulldog  of  the Obama government on foreign policy and execution in Syria.

    It is necessary to compare the UK’s foreign policy on Ukraine with that of the US. That of the UK is more robust and honest just as it is self serving and defiant of domestic public opinion. After facing a gruesome session on his credibility on observance  and violation of lock down protocols boiling down to a police investigation , the British PM flew into Ukraine the following  day  and offered millions  of pounds  to shore up the defence of Ukraine in the eventuality of Russian invasion .The  UK  government also drew a list  of Russian oligarchs who  have brought dubious wealth into London called Londongrad   and that is more biting to Russia than either US or EU sanctions. If you recall that the UK is no more a member of the EU after Brexit, you will see how this deterrence to Russia on Ukraine is fine for the UK sovereign ego and for the political fortunes of the British PM Boris Johnson. This  somewhat  showed what  he meant when he told his detractors in Parliament the other day that he should be allowed to deliver on the big issues of his election mandate and majority,  in spite of violations of lockdown mandates by himself and his coyotes at 10 Downing Street.

    Now  let  me round up  with the Nigerian president who  I think is luckier ,  health wise  than the present  UK PM and US president.  Boris Johnson almost died of covid even though before that he was in robust health and successfully executed Brexit   before he became PM. Joe Biden  profited from covid lockdowns and was in his  health induced bunker  and campaigned  indoors  literally as Donald Trump  campaigned at rallies , caught and survived covid,  only to lose and rubbish  the Biden victory as a stolen victory .

    In Nigeria, however, long before covid, the Nigerian president was in poor health. Perhaps that experience was responsible for the sensible way he managed the health authorities on covid . He delegated responsibility on covid but did not abandon his responsibilities. He approved what was presented to him even though the health managers made it seem as if everything was his handiwork   and dependent on his say so. Even till today there is still curfew in Lagos but it is not   strictly observed. Just as the lockdowns and masks have withered because covid is not a Nigerian affliction and fewer   have died in Nigeria and in Africa generally except S Africa.

    Nigeria has battled western nations health travel bans better than most nations with retaliatory measures under this president than most nations. Yet the issue of insecurity persists and the president is known as a very religious leader and I noted that atheism is part of Machiavellian tactics at the outset of this piece and this   president is definitely not an atheist. It  is starkly  true that bandits, kidnappers, armed herdsmen are having a field day in killing and making money out of killing Nigerians who  want their president to stop  the killings because he has the background as a former military  general  to confront and stop these security  saboteurs dead  in their tracks,  if he wants to. Certainly as a deeply religious leader he must be concerned with the pervading loss of human lives in  the North and the rest of the nation. Nigerians  expect their  president  to clear  the road on insecurity for whoever succeeds him as president in the 2023 presidential  elections, the campaigns  for which  has gathered  steam and momentum  , which  should be bonus and not a hindrance for those hoping to take over the mantle from him,  from  2023,  especially from his own party.

  • Values, diplomacy and reality

    Values, diplomacy and reality

    Politics and diplomacy are at times inseparable but they deal with contentious issues because they are delicately woven into power, its use and misuse amongst individuals in a nation and amongst nations in a comity of nations. Events on the world stage this last week vividly bear this out. Let me start on the premise that the morals amongst nations are different from those amongst individuals who are guided by their culture whilst nations have no permanent friends but permanent interests. My goal today is to illustrate these cultural values in some nations and see how they compare with diplomacy this last week on the world stage.

    I  start  with entertainment which  is what football  is, anyway, and will  show that politics or diplomacy  has no time for niceties , decorum and what  is expected to be politically or socially  acceptable  or correct. See  how Nigeria which has won all its first three  matches  at   the ongoing  AFCON 2022  in Cameroun   crashed out to  Tunisia  which  advanced to face Burkina Fasso  today in the quarter finals. Nigeria lost after the president spoke with our players   while Burkina Fasso at home in Ouagadougou is in the throes of a successful military coup. In  Europe, Russia and the US,  the  drums of war  are   sounding  and the prospects of successful  diplomacy are receding but  the west is under an illusion that it can diplomatically  restrain Russia whose demands  for peaceful  resolution of its quarrel with  Ukraine  are no more than an order to NATO and the US to  comply with,  or face the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine. In  Britain the PM has lost credibility over compliance with Covid protocols which  his government concocted in the logic of public safety right in the seat of power in 10  Downing St. Yet  Boris Johnson still thinks he can get away with murder over  Covid  which  almost  killed him before and cling to power like a cat with nine  lives politically , which I  think  he is ,  albeit   grudgingly,    even after his credibility  seem  to have deserted  him generally.

    Let   us now tackle these issues serially. First there was nothing wrong in our president speaking to the Green Eagles to cheer them on but it was unprecedented. The president is not known to be a sports fan. Military dictators like IBB and Abacha were known as such, even though we all knew the motive was to distract Nigerians from their iron grip on power which is not new .Historically the Emperors of ancient Rome distracted poverty ridden Romans from their squalor and miserable lives by making them watch and cheer gladiators fight lions and each other to death, after saluting Caesar and proclaiming to him that   ‘we who about to die salute you’. It was patriotic of the president to prod the Green Eagles on but as a friend noted   we  should  not expect to go far after sacking the expatriate  coach  who  groomed this bunch  of Eagles  on the eve of AFCON 2022 even after    he made  sure that   we are still  in the race for  the World   Cup. The president should find out what happened or led to the timing of the firing of the coach and Nigerians would be grateful for that, more than anything.

    Next, in   the way  the US and NATO  are trying   to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine,  one  is reminded of Neville Chamberlain the British PM   [ 1937 – 1940] before the Second World War  who tried to appease Hitler but failed and was replaced by Winston Churchill who  teamed up with Russia and the US   as the Allies  to  defeat Nazi Germany in WW2 from 1939  to 1945 . Now the alliances and values are different and friends in the WW2 are now foes declared and undeclared. Both  US President Joe  Biden  and his Secretary  of State Anthony Blinken  remind  me  of Chamberlain who Hitler  deceived with the Munich Agreement  and came back to England  infamously waving a piece of paper saying he had secured ‘ peace  in our time ‘ Similarly Vladmir Putin, the Russian  leader is the new Hitler  that the west is  trying    to  appease  instead  of deterring . Russia’s demands are clear. NATO should not move forces near Russia’s  borders with its former  satellite  states  which  formed the former USSR as  Russia would interpret that as a threat to its security which it will repel. Ukraine, Russia insists should never be a member of NATO the EU military alliance with the US. NATO and the US reject both terms and insist on the sovereignty of Ukraine and its rights to join any alliance. NATO forces are already stationed in the Baltic states formely in the Soviet Union and became independent after the breakup of the USSR in 1991 into 15 states. Definitely Russia is   taunting the US and NATO into a war it knows the west does not have the nerve or stomach for. Clearly Russia has enough   mettle, nerve and clout for the military challenge it is throwing in the diplomatic ring to buy time. It has done it in the past in Georgia and Crimea and the west replied with sanctions. Now Russia has put in place pipelines to supply gas to Germany and EU  and that is an economic weapon to divide EU economically .  Already the head of Germany’s navy has resigned after saying that Putin should be treated with respect.  One  should  wonder  why    former German Chancellor  Angela  Merkel  should agree  to the gas pipeline deal with Russia  which she  insisted  then that Russia has promised not to use the gas deal  as a weapon of war against the EU.  Now  Merkel  herself  was from the former East  Germany and her ease of dealing with Putin   and  communists  should  have come under  due diligence  by the EU. Germany is the EU’s richest  nation  but  has refused to send troops to help Ukraine  thereby   exposing the soft underbelly of the west in any war  with Russia . Definitely  Putin  has the ace in reversing the collapse of the Soviet Union  in  1991  which  is  the  catalyst  for his present belligerence and inadvertently  or deliberately   weakening    the   1989     unification  of Germany   by  separating united Germany  from  the EU,    both   of  which    were   historical feats achieved during the one term presidency  of  the 41st    US  President George Bush  Snr  from  1989  to  1993.

    Let me round up with the covid   rule breaking miseries of the British PM. If   he does not resign as he has indeed told the leader of the Opposition that he will not, I do not see him being forced out. This is because he is a product of the covid times and in flouting the lockdown rules    he has shown he is human and has apologized. In addition he has a knack for reading the public mood correctly and he knows the public is steadily going anti lockdowns and the vaccine and anti vaccine divide is still a raging war on human freedom and choice. In addition he has shown his government is not totally for the cancel culture and the revision of history both colonial and local in Britain and he has a huge sympathy and following on that score. Those calling for his resignation see a moral issue but he sees it as a leadership matter and he is in charge. If he survives I will see him as a human being trying to lead his nation out of the pandemic by example. Weather it is a good or bad one   is for his party and populace to decide .He has certainly decided not to be pushed around or go easily. That is some guts I admire.

  • Democracy, culture and succession

    Democracy, culture and succession

    When  I started this column in January  2021  to replace my earlier one of Global Economy and politics ,  I had an apprehension that the defeat  of the 45th US President Donald Trump   in the   2020   US  presidential   elections  and the emergence of his successor Joe Biden,  will  impact the world far more culturally,  and  quite  negatively for African values   than ever  before and  I have not  been disappointed. I  titled  this column then, New  Cultures and Politics and  I  am  excited at the rate at which  my apprehensions have been proven right and   almost  clairvoyant. Take a look at the issues that have arisen in the one year of the Biden presidency and you will see what I am talking about. Of course the pandemic has not helped and has indeed aggravated matters but Biden is a pandemic president and political beneficiary while his predecessor was a pandemic   and    political victim. But again look at the emergence of race as the main cultural decider of what is acceptable behavior, Black Lives Matter emergence, Cancel Culture, Critical   Race theory, the rewriting and questioning of history, LGBT issues and the emphasis of that especially on EU values and you can come along with me and my proven fears in choosing the title of this column a year ago. Early in December 2021, I took an   unannounced leave from this page and I am happy to be back at what I love dearly in spite of the vicissitudes of life and its attendant risks. I say happy new year belatedly but with hope for a thrilling new year on this column, New Cultures and Politics.

    You may wonder why American politics or European ones should arrest my attention so much. This is a hangover indeed from colonialism, globalization, and the simple reason that information technology has made the world a global village. That  too explains why the English Premiership and all  its clubs are on the fingertips of Nigerian school  children both boys  and girls because  of the dream of becoming professionals  so they can lift the quality of life for their families   like the African heroes playing  at the 2022 African Cup of nations  in Cameroun  have  done  for  their families because   they   play  in Europe  and  abroad and earn enormous   amount  and hard currency consequently. More pungently, American and European values which  are changing rapidly  in this Biden era and post Angela Merkel EU, are exportable materials  diplomatically,  politically, globally;  and most nations including Nigeria and Africans swallow them  hook  line and sinker   with  the major line  of resistance  being China and Russia  which    look with disdain on Western values and democracy. Especially now with the dominance of gender politics, protests,   de policing and the relegation of family values to the back ground in both the US and the EU.

    It is necessary to look at the pattern of political and democratic succession in   some nations,   in the light of the political culture that threw up a Biden in the US and threw a Trump in to the dustbin of history. We shall also look at a democratic U turn in Germany where after a decade and a half the party of long time German Chancellor Angela Merkel is now in the opposition. Naturally we shall compare these, with the much expected news that the Jagaban has thrown his cap into   the ring to engage all comers in his quest to become Nigeria’s president in 2023. And   he announced this in the presence of the leader he hopes to  succeed if he wins the 2023  Nigerian presidential  elections .Quite predictably I take  on the Jagaban succession bid  first because I am  excited about it.

    Read Also: Democracy has come to stay in Nigeria —CDS Irabor

    Let me start by saying that the Jagaban is not a stranger to succession politics. Indeed he is adept at it and has managed governorship succession very successfully in Lagos state. In fact the only governor that strayed got his finger burnt to a one term governorship. He also has experience in presidential succession as it is an open secret that he ceded that ambition to be in the presidency albeit as a Vice President to the present incumbent. Obviously the Jagaban knows his onions politically and has immense network nationally and in that wise he resembles the late MKO who won the militarily rejected June 12 elections. More importantly the Jagaban paved the way for the present incumbent who had lost the presidential election twice till the Jagaban put his neck out for him and he won. I do not see why he cannot reap where he has sown so amply and diligently .The only stout opposition I see for now is the man in the state house in Port Harcourt. He is about the only one who can boast a similar control and achievement in his state although for not as long as the Jagaban has done for a long time in Lagos state .Whether the Jagaban will contest on his own leadership formula or adopt the legacy of the present incumbent president is for him to decide and let Nigerians know.

    Let me now borrow a leaf from the succession politics in the US from the Obama presidency. Joe Biden, Obama’s Vice President wanted to succeed him but the party wanted Hillary Clinton, who was picked eventually as the Presidential candidate but lost the 2016 presidential election to Donald Trump.  Obama did not want a quarrel with his VP and coaxed him to a press conference in the White House to announce he would not compete with Hillary. But Biden is an old fox and he insisted that whoever would contest on the platform of the party should contest on the Obama legacy which he knew will not jell with the American electorate then. Hillary of course contested on that legacy and lost .Ironically a volatile Donald Trump and a devilish pandemic helped Biden to the presidency in 2020. But it is apparent that the present President Joe Biden is a worn out version   of   the   one that snared Hillary into the trap of campaigning on the Obama legacy and predictably losing the 2016 US presidential elections to Donald Trump.

    Similarly in Germany the electorate have not forgiven Angela Merkel  for  allowing  in  2015 about a million refugees from the Middle East into the EU nations and giving them quota on how many to take . In addition Merkel – dominated EU threatened to stop financial aid to those   member nations like Greece and Hungary which   refused the refugees quota and built fences at their borders instead. The new coalition government in Germany now is more radical than Merkel’s government and is quite pro climate, pro LGBT rights and is very ready to dispose of the use of fossil fuel and replace it with clean energy. Germany’s elections are usually transparent and clean but the change political outlook, culture   and environmental values and disposition are so vast and in a very new direction such that one can talk of a   revolution in political perceptions. It is such changes that nations with strong leaders but supposedly scant regard   for human rights in China, N Korea and Russia fear so much that they only allow controlled elections. It is such fear that is making Russia very ready to invade Ukraine which it will do sooner than later because the west has not read the handwriting on the wall to see the failure of diplomacy and the absence of deterrence in a world in which the balance of terror has shifted in favour of Russia and China given the way the US fled Afghanistan recently like a   frightened dog with its tail between its legs ‘.

    Nature it is said abhors a vacuum and the same applies to global political culture and power mongering . The  west  is about to learn a hard lesson on war from new Czar in Russia’s  new  empire – building Kremlin when   he consummates  his visible  strategy  of  geopolitical control  with the invasion of Ukraine .

     

  • Debts, vaccines and climate

    Debts, vaccines and climate

    The  deprivations and  plague of the Covid 19 and its new variant   , Omicron  have altered our way of life  and expectations  of governments and leadership globally .  Yet  this is an evolving situation as the virus refuses to  go away and is leading the world on a  wild goose chase with the  governments facing the dire consequences of being  charged  with the ominous irresponsibility of closing the stable doors after the horses  have bolted .  We  take a look at the world at large today to see the ravages of the pandemic in economic and political  terms to  see how or when managing  this pandemic could have been  done better . It will be foolhardy  to apportion blames as usual on mismanagement or lack of vision on the part of those governments and institutions leading the fight to contain the pandemic world wide . That is not my mission here today but  rather   to  see ways that things could  be done better now    and in the future in containing  a most  unwanted  , debilitating  and murderous visitor  to the world at large that covid 19  and Omicron  have  become  in the world we live in today

    Superficially we take a  look  at both Uganda and Nigeria where  the former is losing  a major airport to the Chinese on account of debt default and the latter  is destroying   expired  vaccines and politely asking vaccine donors  to send them well  before expiry  dates  .  We  examine the situation in the US    where the Biden Administration  is being restrained from  implementing  its vaccine mandate for  private sector and government employees  by  both  the courts and the powerful  US senate .  We  take a peep at  the  EU  where  judicial  independence and rule of law is being invoked  against Poland and Hungary  to  prevent them  from having access  to the huge funds on pandemic recovery  voted  by the EU authorities . Lastly  , but    on a lighter note  ,  and since  every  cloud ,  especially a pandemic one must have its silver lining ,   we just   wonder   aloud   on  how the British  PM  and his unmarried wife got  a second baby  in this pandemic  while a scandal  is a raging over allegations that  the PM staff  had  a  rollicking party last  December  while the government  locked down the rest  of the nation ,  under   stringent covid 19 hygiene protocols . We  now proceed to  critically    go over these  issues in terms  of the topic of the day in consonance  with our earlier resolve  to learn and not necessarily  to apportion blames .

    Uganda is to lose its widely known Entebbe  International  Airport to China because it defaulted in paying the loan    lent   it by the Chinese in 2015  on the airport.  This  is because China  has refused to alter the original  terms of the loan and   the airport   which handles 1.9m  passengers  annually   is  to be forfeited by Uganda to China which  through it famous Belt and Road Initiative is building infrastructure  globally  ostensibly  to export Chinese values and culture all over the world . China  is saying loud and clear on debt recovery  in Uganda ,  that  it is  not a father Christmas and does not  offer  free l   unch  on infrastructure construction   and   finance  in any part of the world in consonance  with its Belt and Road Initiative. Uganda’s debt  is said to be about  50 %  of its GDP and   Uganda  is expected to pay back $3bn  in the next  10 years . Uganda had borrowed  $270m  from Exim  Bank  of China in 2015 . Uganda now joins  the debt  ridden list of China debtors  like Sri Lanka , Malaysia and Maldives who  have lost  control of vital  infrastructure to the Chinese  because of blatant debt recovery  on which the Chinese have shown no mercy .  While the pandemic can  be blamed for the need to borrow nations which  borrow any time and any way  , must  prepare for rainy day . That  brings us to Nigeria where   the Chinese  presence is quite  visible  across  the Lagos Lagoon in  terms  of massive bridge construction  towards Victoria Island  and  the massive  Railway  construction  across the nation . In a mono  product  economy  based on oil  which  is being globally  discarded  in the face of a strong move towards  climate  change  , Nigeria  must  prepare  for the rainy day   and  learn   quickly  from the fate of Uganda and its   loss of face   ,    sovereignty as well as the Entebbe  International   Airport  to the Chinese on account  of debt default.

    Again  on the   pandemic    issue      I   have always  insisted that Nigeria and many African  nations are not as prone as their former  colonialists  to the ravages of the covid 19 .  The death tolls in Nigeria on a comparative basis bear this out and need no repetition here .  But  the Nigerian health  authorities are acting with the same desperation to contain the virus like their overseas  counter parts . This explains why   stored covid palliatives expected to be distributed  to  Nigerians  were looted by those brigands who hijacked the End SARS anti police protests recently . The  news that expired   vaccines were being destroyed and donors kept at bay   this    week  is not therefore  difficult to explain .  Even  though people are getting vaccinated ,  most Nigerians joke about the masks and in many parts of the nation don’t wear them  because they  see them as a huge government  joke .  The fact that not up to 3000 Nigerians have died while the death toll in US , Brazil and some EU nations are up to 700000 and daily death tolls rise on some occasions    to  a  thousand ,  showed  the shoe pinched  in terms    of       deaths  and   fatalities  more in these  places than  in  Nigeria . That  explains why vaccines that Nigerians wont take would expire in storage  and    a  vaccine beggar nation like Nigeria would have the audacity to give conditions to  vaccine donors because the figures    just   don’t  add up on how  many Nigerians  are healthy  enough not to need the vaccine . Yet we embark on lock downs and the government is planning  vaccine clearance  in government establishments and institutions   which  is quite  alarming . A  very  clear example  of the proverbial  ostrich with its head buried in the sand of pandemic  magnification ,  if not   outright   illusion  .

    I take  the issues I  mentioned earlier  on the US and EU together  because they are two  parts  of the same coin  , which  is the rule of law , which  in both instances is being mischievously   weaponised   and politicized .  In  the US the rule of law is at play because  the courts are being  used  to thwart government  objective and intention by a hostile  senate still  irked  that the pandemic  helped the Biden presidential candidacy to win the 2020  presidential election . Republicans in the senate and elsewhere  are hell  bent   on turning the tide in that 2022 US mid term elections by portraying the Biden Administration as inefficient  in the way  and manner it has handled the pandemic , in retaliation for what  it deemed was the  Democrat  ploy  that  made it impossible  for Donald Trump   to  be re elected in the 2020 presidetial  election . A simple tit for tat .

    In  the EU vs Poland /Hungary  on pandemic fund disbursement  based on  compliance with the rule of law , a ruse of a fallacy  is at work . Both  nations are sovereign states  and have rightly claimed they  are not colonies of EU , which  is a fact .  Any way what is at stake   really  is cultural  and sexual  orientation . Both nations  do not recognize gay  and LGBT   rights which  the rest of the EU regard as fundamental   for EU values and human freedom .and there is no meeting point  on that . Some  have even coined the word  Polexit   similar  to Brexit  to show that Poland may  be on the way  out of the EU ,a  prospect the Poles  firmly  denied . It  is  apparent   then   that  the rest of the EU want  to muscle both Poland and Hungary    to change their sexual orientation on marriage and gay rights   in order   to have access    to  pandemic    funds  but   I doubt if they  can succeed  on that score as the two  nations see their views on sex and marriage  as the authentic  European  values and will  not make a u turn on the matter   while  insisting on their right  on access  to EU pandemic funds as bona fide members  of the EU . The  battle line  is drawn  indeed   on pandemic driven European  values in a union  that  prides  itself  on being Christian Europe .

  • Omicron, democracy and conspiracies

    Omicron, democracy and conspiracies

    At  the start  of this global  pandemic that has now   mutated  to  the  Omicron variant I vowed not to  call the corona virus by its name in order not to give it undue publicity in the hope that it  will  soon go away .  My  rationale then was that the virus was like a terrorist or suicide bombers   who seek  publicity for their murderous acts and should be denied such publicity .  I even started  ending my pandemic essays with  the   prayer – From the fury of this pandemic Good Lord Deliver Nigeria . The  pandemic  has not gone   but God has delivered  Nigeria  and I  thank  God  for that and end my prayer in this column from today . I  however am not as afraid of this mutation of the corona virus and will call  it by its  name  right  from the onset  because the facts  on the ground have shown  that this is  not really a disease  that  has found  location in the Nigerian  environment     With   vaccinations  still   ongoing   ,      occasional  social distancing ,masks  now and then    and crude contact tracing ,Nigerians have  weathered the storm of the corona virus comfortably  and no  one should  attempt  to create another pandemonium  over Omicron .  Like we closed our economy  like copy  cats because the advanced nations of the world indeed our  former colonial  masters  did  so  at  the start of the corona  virus . Yet  the facts were clear, if grim . At  times a thousand people died a day in Britain , Spain , the US , Holland  and  Brazil    . Yet in Nigeria the death toll overall is still  less than  3000 .Even  ECOWAS in a recent plea  for help  on   more vaccinations  from  the  US   and   the EU   , admitted that Africa accounts  for  only 4.3 per cent of Covid 19 global  fatalities

    This  then  ,  is the back ground    to   my story  today   which  revolves  around     global reaction to the  emergence  and   ravages of Covid 19  in  the  world  democracies .  First  to a   virus that an American president called a Chinese virus to the consternation of the Chinese government ,  the global  reaction to S Africa which  just  recently   announced  the emergence of Omicron as  well  as the Nigerian NCDC  frantic  effort  to join   the band wagon    to show that the Omicron  was already in Nigeria with two  people  affected  and the  consequences of  all  these ,  on the nations involved  .

    It  is necessary  to start  with S Africa  whose Health  Minister announced the discovery of Omicron  in    an  apparent display of transparency  in order to avert the confusion over the time and source of the Covid  19 which  started in a  laboratory in China and  on which  there is still some controversy  that even the WHO has not been  able to resolve in order not  to provoke China .But  the leading democracies of  the world shocked S Africa by banning  travellers from 7 Southern African nations  to their territories . The alarmed S African president has called on these European nations to lift the ban and even travelled to Nigeria on what  I will  call an  attempt at solidarity to lift the ban on S Africa . To say that Africa  has been treated     badly  here  is  an understatement . But the fact remains that even before Omicron  S Africa has one of the highest fatalities  on Covid 19 in Africa and the reason is not far fetched . S Africa  has almost the same climate like the Europeans which explains why apartheid took so  long to collapse  but  now on Omicron S Africa  is being given an apartheid treatment by the Europeans and the US because  it did  the correct  thing in announcing the outbreak of Omicron on its  territory . That surely is a lesson on double standards . And  it is in that light that one wonders why Njgeria’s NCDC  was so eager to announce the discovery  of Omicron in Nigeria . Was NCDC looking for an award or any  pat on the back on the discovery of Omicron ? Surely  discretion should  be the better part of valor and  Nigeria’s  health authorities  should  make  haste  slowly  in showing the world that they are at work even  when the low   fatalities  on Covid 19  in   Nigeria   show   clearly  that God  is not finished with Nigeria inspite of their   undue haste to get global  scientific  recognition or adulation   Omicron .

    All  the same it is better to learn from the experience of nations with high  Covid 19   fatalities  to see   that not all that glitters is gold . In  the US the nation is divided between those  who wear  masks and those who don’t . Most Republican state are not for  masks while Democrat  states are for  masks . The Biden Administration is for masks and recently  gave a directive for government employees to be vaccinated by a deadline date but a US  court has overruled that  for  now ,  and government has backtracked on the directive . In  China which  is a communist   nation  , government  has  no qualms or any opposition or protests against closing cities or areas  where the virus emerges no matter how many  millions of  people  are involved .  In  EU nations the division is between those who are vaccinated and those who  are  not  ,   with  those who have not taken the  vaccine claiming it is their fundamental right to determine  what to do with their body . Which  reminds one  of the claim by those who  support abortion  calling it a matter of  choice  on what to do with their  body .  Some  European  leaders  have resolved that the  solution should not be to turn those against vaccinations into enemies of the state but to look for other solutions .

    Essentially  European  nations  and citizens value their fundamental  human rights and many feel  that the lock downs  and freedom of movement are being used  by governments in the pandemic to erode democratic  rights on the excuse or emergency  of health and public safety .  Some  have identified past historical experience  and  mistrust  of governments as responsible  for  protests against lockdowns and reluctance  to vaccinate . People  who  have lived under communism , Nazi  rule  and fascist regimes recall  their plight and are not easily sold on government orders on their way of life even where human lives are at stake . Some observers think that some people  are so skeptical  of government intentions and  policies  and  weave  that  to their beliefs  that governments are up to  no good and use  that as motive   not    to be vaccinated  . The  fact  that even  fully vaccinated  people have died thereafter  has been  some incentive for those against  vaccination to indulge in their stand against vaccination .

    Finally  some observers have said  the emergence of Omicron  from Africa is an attempt  to please the Chinese who feel tainted that the Covid 19 emerged from the Wuhan  lab   even though  how it emerged   either  from humans or bats  has    not been proven . If  Omicron becomes popular,  it is said ,  the Covid will  be  forgotten and  China   will breathe    better   as  Omicron becomes the global virus .  But  that also  brings to mind  the  said  callous     lamentation of Bill Gates ,  and even the WHO  , that Covid  19 has  not killed as many Africans as speculated .  That  is wicked  wishful  thinking   falsely equating    gross   poverty   with  high  covid  mortality . Covid 19  has shown that the rich  also die   aplenty ,  while  the poor  live long . Omicron  cannot do otherwise and Africa will  prevail against  all  the negative  odds and  speculations .

  • Policing , culture and justice

    Policing , culture and justice

    The  concept of justice demands that justice needs not only to be done but must be seen to have been done . Justice   and   the laws  of society  however   are   rooted in the norms , customs tradition and morals of each society  . That  has thrown up the idea that justice  can  be relative and therefore  contextual  in different societies . The  essence of justice however is to maintain peace and stability  in political  systems such  that the safety of life  and property is guaranteed .  Any  deviation from this goal  threatens the peace  and tranquility  of societies and governments and is an invitation to anarchy and the break down of law and order . This is the  basis for our analysis of today in the context of the above topic  . We  shall   look at the crisis of the legal  and justice systems  in some nations in the light of their political   culture  and how justice is being dispensed  and   how  the goal  of equity , fairness   are being pursued and the evolving and attendant  challenges therefrom .

    We  start with  the indignation of Nigeria’s Minister of Information , Lai Mohammed with the   leaked report of the End SAR’S judicial panel which  the Minister literally  threw under the bus with  ten lapses  that one cannot dismiss with a wave of the hand .  We  then go to the US and discuss the exoneration of a   teenager who killed two men and wounded another  on the grounds of self defence . We  stop over in Ethiopia where  the  Prime  Minster  Abiy   Ahmed   who was given a Nobel Prize for peace  recently   is now using violence to preside over the liquidation and destruction of his  country  . We  end up with Sudan where protesters toppled a sitting   long   time  president ,  Omar  Bashir   with international intervention   and jailed   him , only  to have the joint government with the military  led  by PM Abdallah  Hamdok  disbanded in a military coup   recently  that  sacked and arrested the civilian government ,  only to release them when  they  accepted  to be more  compliant.

    In  Nigeria the End SARS leaked report  which   the Minister ripped  apart  there is no denying that the Nigerian Police and Army were on trial and have been found guilty before trial  by  the  CNN and  foreign media in the  aftermath of the George Floyd ‘ I  can’t breathe ‘ tragedy where a  white  policeman choked George Floyd   , a black   man ,  to death with his knee. The  protests that rocked  the world thereafter reached Nigeria simply  because the world has become  a  global  village  inhabited  by humanity  and  the trial that  jailed the errant  policeman could  not have ever seen the policeman’s angle of defence , and really he had  none ,  but he was never presumed innocent   until    found   guilty  as required by law , right  from the start . In addition the George Floyd  family  was given ample compensation of about 14m dollars  . Perhaps  that informed Lai Mohammed  wondering why the End SARS leaked  report never mentioned compensation to policemen and why  no members of  slain protesters  came to claim bodies when  even   dog  owners  , as the  Minister    noted  ,normally  claim their pets ,  dead or alive . Again  the report ignored the carnage  carried out by the hoodlums who  hijacked the End SARs  protests and gave it a  bad name  which  lingers till  now in the public  mind . It  eroded the morale of the Nigerian police to the extent that policemen turned their back  on criminal activities for  fear of being put on trial  for performing their  legitimate  duty  of ensuring law and order .  The End SAR’s  protests too was influenced  by the Defund  the Police protests which  called for scrapping the policing system  in the US because  it  was anti black and brown and was racist and protective of white supremacy  sentiments . But then that is the US and  not Nigeria and the Nigerian police should  not be seen in that light in spite of its numerous faults , institutional  and private .

    Read Also: Fed Govt rejects Lagos EndSARS panel report

    We  now go to the trial  of the teenager who was freed for killing two men on the ground  of  self defence . The  pro government US   media saw the trial as a racist one and tried to coerce the jury to jail the accused  even though the accused and his victims were all  white . Even  the US president had branded the accused as a white supremacist to be found guilty . Which prompted the judge in the  case to ask  the jury  to dispense justice based on evidence  , telling  them that they  should  not listen to anyone including the US president  in reaching their  verdict  which  found the accused not guilty   making sure he got away really with murder , but in self defence . The biased US president  had to eat his words  after the  verdict by  saying loud and clear that  the American jury or justice  system  works and he  believes in it  , a real  afterthought .

    In  Ethiopia  we see a miscarriage  of justice        in the way the Nobel  Prize   for   peace  was awarded  to a war  monger pre maturely by     the wise men giving the award  in Oslo , Sweden . It showed  a lack of vision on the part of the award  givers which  should give them concern if the image and great global  value   ,   prestige   and  worth of the award  is not to be dented . Barak  Obama was given the award prematurely in his presidency but  he left  the world in   a topsy  –  turvy  way  in terms of peace,  far worse than he met it.  Especially with regard to the Middle East   notably  Syria and the   present high  migration from the Middle East  to Europe  can be laid  at the door steps of a US president given the  Nobel Prize  more for his colour than any potential  to create genuine peace at the beginning of his two  term presidency . In  Ethiopia the war mongering PM of Ethiopia   Abiy  Ahmed  has   shown his true color and has asked  Ethiopians   to join  him at the front line as the insurgents he wanted to crush  advance towards   Addis Ababa the capital of Ethiopia in a clear show of force that  shows clearly  that this recent Nobel Prize  winner for peace has bitten more than  he can chew and Ethiopia  will know   no   at    least  ,   peace for now .

    Again we look  at the turn around of power and political  justice  in the Sudan . Obviously  the  army has crushed  the  protests   and is back  in the saddle . This reminds one of Egypt where  Housni  Mubarak  was overthrown  by protests in the Arab Spring and the army stepped aside for elections and the first Egyptian democratically president was in place for sometime only to be deposed and executed by the same  army which  kept faith with Housni Mubarak who lived in splendor till   he died . The  same thing is happening in Sudan and the Army  is keeping faith with its boss    Omar   Bashir who was thrown out with  long street  protests  .Yet  the Sudanese army is back in the saddle and that is the reality on the ground in Sudan  and  that is democracy  and justice in the context of the Sudan , not imported and foreign dominated democracy and justice . Once again From the fury of this  pandemic Good Lord Deliver Nigeria .

     

  • Invasions , diplomacy and New World Order

    Invasions , diplomacy and New World Order

    Events and happenings in the  world at large  this   week show vividly  that some time tested and well  known ideas and values  are taking on  new meanings and metamorphosing   into new ideas  right before our eyes .You may  say  they are lost in plain sight but it is their impact on global  diplomacy , the  balance of power in a new evolving world order  and the threat and import of that to global  peace that attracts  our attention today . The  signals  are there beaming  and fluctuating   like a traffic  light at a road junction and the prevailing color is not green or amber . It is plain bloody  red and that is no exaggeration as I shall  show carefully  today   with  some vivid  illustrations .

    On  the global  scene , first  look at the Belarus and Poland border and the scene showing  locked out    illegal migrants throwing stones at the police and army of the nation they want to migrate to     resisting  them  and you sense that this is not a n ordinary migration but a   hostile  invasion. Compare this with the US Mexico  border where former President Trump  built a wall  to stem the tide of illegal  migration and on which  his  successor reneged and welcomed illegal  migrants  with financial  incentives and no vaccine or covid testing and  you  again  see that this is an orchestrated invasion approved  by the US government and is not an ordinary migration . Also  this week  the leaders of China and US  met  in a virtual  summit and it was clear  who  had the upper  hand on the personal  and diplomatic  front especially  on the dicey  issue of Taiwan’s Independence . In  Nigeria the House  Reps  passed  a resolution  asking  the army  to change strategy to confront the   terrorist  effrontery of the Islamic State in West Africa Province –ISWAP – when  it is an open secret  that  Nigeria has always had an open , uncontrollable border right from the creation of the North East state in the mid 1970s ,   well  before the government  , a military  one ,  created  six unviable  states that have been  invaded by so called migrants now under the force of arms confronting government in not only the NE. They  are   marauding  and raiding    the NW , North  Central  and Middle Belt in the form  or guise    of armed herdsmen who  are  more   or  less   the   strong vanguard of an invasion force which  some government  sources have branded as aliens  from God knows where and not bona fide Nigerians . In  the news  on CNN   the  cable  network  is hard at work to portray  the Jan 6 Capitol  Insurrection  2021   as a coup simply  because its analysts do  not know the significance of coups  as they have never  seen one but  aim  to  damage further the image of their 45th  president  that they afraid may resurrect in the 2024 presidential  elections which  they  think and boast  will happen over their dead bodies .

    I  will now proceed to   give  my perceived consequences of all  these  events and situations  in brief before giving the reasons that I think  gave rise  to them. It  is like putting the cart before the horse but I am in a hurry to discharge the  alarm  in my head  as  well   as the  cargo  in my mind  on these  issues and   will  ride the horse  comfortably in front of the cart   later .

    First  the Belarus- Poland border stand of has shown that migration can be weaponised  in  international  relations amongst    nations   with  conflicting   interests   or  at dispute with each other .  The  open border issue of the Biden Administration  has   shown that migrants  can  be used as cannon  fodder to get votes and political  power  later  regardless of the security  risks involved now and in the immediate future . The  way  the Chinese leader greeted his American leader  as an ‘ old friend ‘ at the beginning of their virtual  meeting showed that the US is  beholden to China under the Biden Administration and Biden’s double talk on Taiwan Independence and security showed that the US will  betray Taiwan on the issue of defence and Independence like it   marooned its allies when it fled Afghanistan and abandoned   it  to  the Taliban . The  call  by the Nigerian House of Reps  on the army to contain the menace of  ISWAP is  like barking at the moon as it is clear  the army  is running out of ideas on how to contain the invasion of NE by not only ISWAP  but    also Boko  Haram  and the  omens on this are not that  good .

    Read Also: TRUMPing democracy

    With  regard to the frenzy on CNN to  make  the Jan 6 Insurrection look  like  a coup   or  the worst  thing to happen to US democracy and in the process  making   Donald Trump a  potential treasonable  felony candidate for an imagined guillotine ,  the CNN should not throw  caution to the winds in its  own very  interests . It  has a credibility problem on the Russia story that is unraveling now as fake news that it used from day one to attack the Trump Administration falsely  . The  faces on show  at  CNN are quite familiar .  They  are the same anti Trump cast  and I feel sorry for their hatred  for their  former president whose potential  for presidential resurrection in 2024 is  why they  are  calling the Jan 6  2021  issue a coup .  It  is another fake news  , a name  that rattled CNN  no  end  when Trump  first used it and it stuck effectively   in his  highly  controversial one term presidency  . I  have given the reason  here now ,let   me do  the same for the other issues .

    On  the Belarus- Poland  migrants issue it is Belarus allowing migrants from Iraq , Syria  and the Middle  East access   maliciously  through its territory to  Poland in retaliation for sanctions against Belarus by the EU  for rigging the last Belarus presidential elections and suppressing protests and opposition violently .  Poland  is a   gate way to the EU and is the proxy for Belarusian vendetta or retaliation against EU  economic sanctions  on this score .

    With  regard to the Chinese leader calling Biden an old friend it is apparent that they have met before and not the first  time . Hunter Clay , Bidens  son had dubious   business transactions with  the Chinese which were suppressed   during  the 2020  presidential election by the liberal  media till it was   sure Trump   had lost the elections .It  is obvious the Chinese leader knows  he has the American president by the balls and that can be used to make America play  ball  like Biden capitulated on the Taiwan  issue and left the mud cleaning to his lieutenants  later .

    On  the issue  of Boko  Haram ,  ISWAP and  the inability of the army to contain them  ,  a change  not only  of  strategy but orientation,  collaboration and   perception is necessary . Nigeria needs   to team up with the leader of  France  who has a more serious problem on  his hand as France has the largest Muslim population in France and President Emmanuel  Macron is committed to making   France a secular state  and  French Muslims are being made by force and guile to adapt and live in a secular  state . The opposite is happening in Nigeria where jihadism is being treated with kid gloves and Boko Haram and ISWAP  are waxing stronger .  France   has  a fighting   force  in the Sahel  because  it believes  Islamic    terrorism   is being hatched  and exported   to EU and   France   from there . Amnesty  International  tried   to blackmail  the French  forces  recently but the French   general  saw  through  their   false  alarm   and told them they  are  in league  with the Islamic   forces  terrorizing the Sahel which  includes    our NE and   NW . We   should  team  up with  the French  in combatting Islamic  terrorism both within and without the Sahel  in Nigeria.  A word is  enough  for the wise

     

    • From the fury of this pandemic Good Lord Deliver Nigeria .

     

  • Expectations, performance, and the constitution

    Expectations, performance, and the constitution

    The constitution in any democratic dispensation shows the rules of engagement for elected officials and institutions  performing the various  duties of government in the execution of   governance . Constitutionalism   is the concept that  monitors how far  the  rules  of engagement  have been observed in the execution  of the various  duties  and responsibilities  of  government  by elected government officials  in all tiers of government . The  judiciary  interprets the laws inherent  in the constitution and mediates in disputes arising out  of the execution of the  constitution   by both  the state and its citizens  as  well as the institutions of  government  in the process of governance   . That     role  constitutes  what  is generally  referred to  as the rule  of law in   consonance with common  democratic parlance .  Governments  come, go or remain  in periodic elections ,  which  are  the litmus test of  performance in office and  the constitutional  way of rewarding   or  punishing  the use   and misuse of power   in governance  in clean elections , as opposed  to rigged ones . In  Nigeria  however rigged elections are  the mode rather  than the exception , although former US  president   Donald   Trump has dragged  the US into such fold with  his unending claim  that  the 2020 US presidential election he lost  ,was rigged .

    Constitutionalism , its  observance ,  the responsibilities  of  government in all  tiers of  government and the correct  blame  centres   for  performance or lack of it was the theme of a lecture at the prestigious Yoruba Tennis Club last  week . The lecturer was the former governor of Lagos state Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola , the current Minister of Works  and Housing . The  Chairman of the lecture was Dr Yomi  Finnih  ,the Secretary  of the Board of Trustees of the Club who stood in for Alhaji Femi Okunnu SAN  the Chairman of the club’s Board of Trustees .

    Ironically  the topic  of the lecture was ‘ What  can the President  do for me ‘ The  lecturer seized  the occasion  to highlight  misconceptions  on the roles and responsibilities  of government and shed light on the notion  that  the president is literally  responsible for every thing that government  does and is to be blamed for all incidents of the failure of government . He  quoted severally  from various articles of the constitution to show  the  appropriate instruments  of government  responsible  for various functions and duties of   government  in   governance  . In particular  he frowned at the misconception that the office of the Vice President is  without due  functions and quoted appropriate sections of the constitution to show that  the VP is not  a ‘spare  tyre’ as generally  misconceived .

    The  lecture was typically well  delivered  by a time tested  politician  but the expectation of the audience  on the topic  advertised , was certainly not met as the   published  topic was personal  in terms of      expectation   on what  the Nigerian president can do  for the individual Nigerian . Even  though the delivered  topic generated intense interest  , there was palpable frustration in the audience in the  way   the   lecturer literally  changed topic on delivery . Nothing showed that more than the observation of the Chairman of the occasion at the end that he had come with a wish list  to the  event on what he wanted the president  to  do  to  him . At  question time  issues of insecurity   and food security  were raised   and the lecturer attended to them brilliantly  but  there was no denying that the deviation from  the personal expectation   immersed in the advertised  topic of the of the day  ,  was an unexpected  surprise that caught many   if not most  people   definitely   off guard.

    At  question time  ,  at the start of which the   chaperon  stunned the audience with his rules of engagement  which     included  an admonition that government   officials  should not be insulted by potential   questioners  , which was quite adversarial  and threatening , especially to journalists   and the media at large,  I asked a question which  was ignored by the lecturer . I  asked if the potential for absolutism was not high in a political  system like Nigeria in which  one party controls both the executive and  the   legislature   and  quoted Shakespeare Julius Caesar where it was said that ‘ ambition should be made of  sterner stuff ‘   .  I  noted that  the lecturer is made of the sternest  stuff   and   I wanted  to know if his brilliant exposition on the constitution was not a prelude to   a major  participation in 2023  which  he mentioned  at the end of his lecture . The  lecturer simply  said that even the US  with  its presidential system or constitution is struggling to get concensus and the person of  the  US  President Joe  Biden is being attacked instead  of the issues at stake .

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    I  however  feel  that many Nigerians feel  that  the government , especially the president  has the constitutional  power to protect them  and  keep  them safe from the pervading insecurity in the entire nation  for the simple reason that he was elected twice  for such expectation , which is certainly  not an extravagant  one . Nigerians expect  to  have electricity at  home and in their places of work . They  expect government to protect them against   marauders , Boko Haram , armed herdsmen -Fulani or aliens , rapists and those killing Nigerians and thus challenging the constitutional authority of the president  and the government of the day .

    Even in the US where consensus is   difficult  for now I  want  to use an example  I   read about  recently on a write  up  by the Mayor Elect of New York City Eric Adams a black  Democrat  and former police man .  Eric Adams  was  writing to  US law makers to bi partisanly    pass   a   trillion dollar     bill and that   has just   been   done  and the Biden Administration   is  happy  . Incidentally  the  new  Mayor elect  won against  all odds   because  the bill had been branded by Republicans as socialist ,  highly inflationary    and  is  a form  of power  grab to lure the electorate to keep  the Democrats in power for ever which  I don’t think is possible .

    The  new Mayor Elect noted  that America prospers when its cities are performing . This was a black  man  who won in a  city that  promotes the Black Lives Matter  slogan  as well as the Defund the Police movement and yet he won as a black democrat  and    ex – policeman  . He  cited the   social  and public benefits  inherent in the bill . They  include Child care provisions  to poor Americans to educate their children early in life . Next is what he called Resilience whereby Americans living in coastal  towns like New York  are given financial relief due to the ravages of floods , tornadoes and the impact of Climate Change . He  mentioned  Transportation  and    provisions   for  roads and  railways   that   enhance  interstate communications      making   commuting possible  to promote economic development . The  bill  he insists  make provisions  to protect Americans   against  the rising gun violence across America and funds for  housing to make houses available to Americans and  reduce  the menace of housing insecurity making   homelessness a rising  socio- economic  problem in the US .

    The  provisions  in that bill are  the sort of things  that the voters in  any  political system including Nigerians  ,  New  Yorkers and Americans  at large should  expect of their governments at all levels . For  now  the Biden Administration is being congratulated in getting  the bill passed because some Republicans  voted for the bill in  spite  of the fierce opposition of their party , which  is a rare  case of concensus   in   the present    fiercely  politically  divided America . In  a way it is similar to the bipartisan electronic voting bill  recently  passed  by the National Assembly and to be passed to the president .  Nigerians expect the president to sign it into law in the spirit of the lecture topic at YTC that said  ‘What  the President  do  for me’ . After  all   the buck stops on the president’s  table according to the Nigerian constitution . Once again- From the fury of this pandemic  , Good Lord Deliver Nigeria .