The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Power, democracy and magnanimity

    Power, democracy and magnanimity

    The  fact that the two major  parties  in Nigeria have set a huge  sum for political participation in the competition to become  president  has shown that Nigeria is not a democracy but an  oligarchy . The ruling APC asked presidential  aspirants  in the party  to pay 100m naira  to get the presidential candidate forms  while  the PDP  asked its presidential aspirants  to pay 40m  naira for the forms . Both  are prohibitive prices and make leadership  access for the presidency expensive and majorly  uncompetitive and as such undemocractic . But  then that is the nature of our politics and that means our  political leadership  is up for grabs   only  by the rich and  mighty .  It  is this nature of our politics that I want  to compare with  the modes of leadership  that has been in  vogue in the  world at large in the last one week .

    I  want to discuss the purchase  of Twitter by Elon Musk  in the US and  his rationale for using the purchase at  44bn US dollars  to protect   the right  of free speech which  is the essence of any true  democracy . I want  to  compare  that with the statement credited to APC leader  and presidential  candidate , Jagaban Bola Ahmed  Tinubu  that  the more APC  presidential  candidates emerge , even  from under  his agbada and tutorship  ,  the better  for democracy  in Nigeria . I  link  the call by the Italian PM Mario Draghi at  the European  Parliament  in Strasbourg  last  Tuesday  that the EU  should  restructure  its treaty pragmatically  to face  the challenges thrown  up by the Russian invasion of Ukraine .  According   to  Draghi  as  he addressed   the European  Parliament  – ‘   we  need   pragmatic  federalism   that  embraces  all the  spheres hit by the  transformations taking place , from the economy to   energy  and  security   ‘  My  assignment  here today  is to show  how these three events illustrate the topic of the day . In  the process I will  show that leadership ,  political  or not can , be magnanimous ,  public   spirited  and  accommodating while at the same time acknowledging that  change is a challenge  that      is  needed and   may be  ultimately  inevitable  in any  political  system .

    Since  charity should  begin at home I  want  to start with  the issue of emergence of presidential  candidates especially  in the South west . It is clear that two  of the candidates were political  wards of the former governor  of Lagos state the Jagaban  who  literally  brought them up politically . One is  therefore astounded to hear the Jagaban say the more presidential  candidates  emerge  the merrier when the general  view is that his political  sons have turned against him  in the presidential contests . He  noted correctly   though  that there can  be many aspirants  but there is one post of presidency  and he  sounds unfazed or embarrassed  by the competition . That  to me is   sheer     political   magnanimity   and confidence of a leader  who knows his onions and is confident  that he knows  the political  terrain leading to the primaries for the presidency    ; and he  has the structure on the ground to achieve his goal .He  has not used the word treachery to traduce  his errant political  students but it seems he wants them to  learn a   hard  lesson  that the hood  does not make the monk  in the primaries where  the real  race  for the presidency  begins .

    I  compare  the Jagaban’s magnanimity  with  that  of Elon Musk  who  bought the powerful internet platform Twitter which  silenced a  powerful   president  of the US   Donald  Trump  on the eve  of the 2020  US  Presidential  elections  that he eventually  lost . Elon Musk ,   in buying Twitter said free speech  should  be respected and such platforms like Twitter should  publish   people’s views especially when  they don’t  agree with such  views . It is as  if Musk  is playing the avenging angel  for  the silenced Donald  Trump  who is struggling  to have his own communication platform called Truth Social  . It would  appear that Elon Musk is a God sent leader  not only for the US but  humanity  at large both rich and poor  and surely   he   must  be acknowledged as the most innovative engineer and technologist in our world to day .He  is the owner of Tesla , the new electric car of our time . He owns Space X ,the space exploration and technology  company  that has takes those who can afford it to space  and back . And  he has a boring company that makes tunnels and underground railways to stem the tide of traffic congestions  in cities and one hopes he can come and help us  greatly  in Lagos Nigeria . So  in the air , on the ground  and under it Elon ,  Musk  has been a very  benevolent and magnanimous innovative leader to  humanity  even  in the promotion of democracy  and   opposition  to   the use of the media and technology to silence political  opposition  especially  in the US  . I doff  my hat to him .

    With  regard  to the EU  and the call  for change it is the word  pragmatic  federalism  that catches  my fancy  as it is like the call  for restructuring  in our own political  system .  The Italian PM mentioned  the areas that change is needed  namely , the economy , energy and security  and Nigeria  too needs restructuring   , and transformations  in all  these sectors  and urgently  too . The  Italian leader lamented that  ‘ the European institutions that  our predecessors built over the decades served the European   citizens  well  but they are inadequate  for the reality  before us now ‘  hence the call for pragmatic federalism for  the EU now  in the face of  the   need for  quick and immediate response by all EU members to the Russian invasion of Ukraine . The crux  of the matter is that the EU treaty calls for the endorsement  of  all   the 27 members on any proposed change which means  a single dissent from any member can stop any proposed change . For  now the Italian  leader sees the leader of Hungary as an ally of Russia’s  leader and he wants an amendment to change the veto that Hungary  has on any united stance  against  Russia  by the EU .

    Nigeria  by comparison  is also a federation  but  it   operates  like a unitary system  in that the center in Abuja the capital dispenses funds and calls the shots and that has favored the North  more than the south .In addition electricity supply , generation and distribution  is  erratic   and irregular and that has  seriously  hampered economic development  and growth  . In addition the nation is beset with serious economic insecurity  that is very  rampant especially in the North and the Boko Haram insurgency in the NE . These have led to calls for restructuring  ,when  if one is realistic ,should be calls for a confederation  or a change of sorts similar  to what the EU has called for to pragmatically arrest  the sort of challenges  that the existing EU treaty  is facing in the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine . Nigerians   too need  review of our constitution  in the face of the economic, energy and insecurity   challenges we face and which  seem intractable and overwhelming in recent times . It is never too late  to embrace  change  if  we must hope  to enjoy  our  nation and live  peacefully as one nation  as the  EU , a comity of 27 nation states,  is planning to do for its citizens in the face of an extravagant  and unexpected  war.

  • Education, ethnicity and progress

    Education, ethnicity and progress

    A focus today on what I call  social engineering and have the cheek to give my own definition of that . It is a way    of   interest groups in society at large trying to mould their  society to reflect their way of life   and values and getting political power to boot . That surmises the three concepts that form the topic of the day and I will  illustrate with examples from our Great Nigeria , Germany and the so  called champion of democracy , the USA .

    In  Nigeria there is  an accepted gap in education between  the North   and the South and that is  the genesis of our national  character syndrome and the zoning political  accouterment . If   federal  positions in government and its parastatals  are based on merit ,  the North would be eating dust and the south  will be blazing the trail in such appointments . But  politics and the concept of unity in diversity , our motto  , interceded  and we are where  we are today . The North  is ascendant  and dominant in federal  political and bureaucratic  appointments and the south  is left holding the can in a manner  of logic turned on its head . But then  that is the goal of unity in diversity in a federation  handed to us in 1960  at  Independence  , when  and where the British  colonialists  wanted the North by all means to call the shots in  terms of power and politics  , after their reluctant exit from a lucrative colonial    outpost . The British never forgave the progressive elite  from the south that challenged their authority fearlessly in Lagos their capital ,  and  in   unforgiving  retaliation  ,  they gave empathy and approbation to the Northern aristocracy , indeed the Fulani  hegemony that held the North head  bowed in full obedience to British colonialism  in the  administrative  colonial  apparatus they dubbed Indirect Rule .

    Nevertheless the pre and post Independent leadership of the North  was  alive  to the educational    deficit with the south   and was keen  on bridging  it in the shortest possible time . That was to be expected because the Sardauna  of Sokoto , Sir Ahmadu Bello and his  loyal  deputy Abubakar Tafawa Balewa , the first Prime Minister of Nigeria were both teachers and knew the value of education in economic and political development  and knew the North at Independence was far behind  the south educationally .They used crash  training programmes  in some of the world’s finest universities , management and strategy and diplomatic  institutions to position freshly  trained Northerners in the federal  civil  service and  the dividend yielded enormously  till today , the Northern  domination and discrimination not with standing . Unfortunately  both leaders were executed in the military coup of Jan 1966 and  since then  the North   has been  in limbo on catching up on the educational  gap between  the North  and the south  .Until  the advent of JAMB which  was aimed at slowing the widening of the educational   gap    between the North and the south .In  the aftermath of the demise of these  two pro  education leaders of the North , a famous Northern  musician  Bala  Miller claimed at a political  rally in Kaduna , that if the North  had spent the money and funds it used for hajj and lesser hajj on  education in   producing engineers , lawyers and doctors it would not  be lagging so much  behind the south in terms  of political and economic progress .

    It  is not enough  to go into  the history of social  engineering in Nigeria from colonial times till  independence because the fruits are still  ripening right in our time today and before  our eyes . The North is still reluctant  to give up the power the British  fondly  gave to it and the basis is the census . Now  on the eve of the 2023 elections we want  to conduct  a census  and that again is another political distraction with its  political  consequences . Look  at  the list of presidential contestants from the south and you will see the northern  policy of divide and rule against the south very much at play . It is an old game and the  fact that some aspirants will not resign  when holding  public positions as the electoral law demands  , is  part of the educational  gap  between the north  and south and that makes politics a do or die as usual  in the Nigerian political  terrain .

    Anyway , while ethnicity and north south divide are  the  sore  points  of our federation and unity , racism and  sexism  have become the bane of western civilization  . I will  use  the examples of Germans fleeing   from  their    native Germany to Paraguay in Latin America  and the Education Ideology of the  US  Biden Administration   reportedly  using  funds approved for covid  comfort  to further anti  racist  educational  policies it says  are inclusive ,promoting equality and eliminating discrimination from a historical  perspective  ,   to  boost the topic  of the day .

    I watched  a video  interview on  BBC and was aghast at how the BBC interviewer   brazenly tried to label those she  was interviewing as racist . The interviewer had  asked   the   German    migrants to Paraguay why they fled Germany as the news was  that  thousands of Germans were running to Paraguay . A German  couple  had replied timidly  that they were not comfortable with many Muslim men harassing Germans  for  German women not covering their heads in Germany . The German couple  said it would be dangerous for them to say this in their own country . Then  to my horror the BBC reporter said that what  they were saying was racist  .  That  to me  was a good example of the cancel  culture that  made these Germans flee their nation Germany because  of hostile Muslim migrants , to Paraguay  which  they see as an accommodating Christian nation where they  are welcome  as free migrants and not discarded as racists for expressing their opinions .

    In  the same vein I read that three  Democratic US states , namely California , New York  and Illinois  have  used covid 19 relief  funds to promote Critical Race Theory  in their schools .The  Democrats passed  what  they called the American Rescue Plan –ARP –  to reopen schools in 2021 during the pandemic but they are using the opportunity to redraw history and do some educational  social engineering  in the process and sell their Critical Race Theory that teaches school children that   the white race is responsible for slavery and racism and white children  should accept that from school age . I have disagreed    before on the grounds that two  wrongs do not make a right   and that  Martin Luther King and  his civil rights movement  took care of such  racism emphatically  and with  dignity  and respect  .In  particular the California Dept of Education reportedly used funds to ‘ increase educator training and resources in subjects such as anti bias strategies , environmental literacy , ethnic studies  and ‘  LGBTQ plus  cultural  competency ‘  There  can  be no better example of cultural befuddlement and disorientation with a political flavor to reward those who the government of the day thinks were responsible for putting it in  power by voting for it in the 2020  presidential election . It  is a shameless lesson in political  social engineering .

  • Morals, leaders and politics

    Morals, leaders and politics

    There is an unwritten rule in International Relations and Diplomacy . It  says that there are no permanent  friends but permanent  interests  in the relations amongst nations . That  is the dictum in sovereign relations amongst  nations , big or small . However the opposite is true in human relations   where the morals , norms , mores and societal  culture ,   govern   human relations and habits . Today  I want to  dwell  on  human relations in   politics and will use  the ambitions and leadership  style of some leaders in Nigeria , Britain and France  as well as the nature of their political   culture  ,  to illustrate  the topic   of the day . In  these three nations elections loom on the   horizon  and political  ambition and  the quest  for power and authority show  how human    nature   reveals  itself most unexpectedly and unbelievably when political power  is at stake and is the big prize  to be won .

    In  Nigeria I look at  the emergence of presidential  candidates in the ruling APC  and  the declaration of the Vice President that he intends to contest the presidential  election in 2023  . In Britain  I  examine the call for British  PM to resign  because he broke the Covid health laws set  by his government  as well as his obsession with the Russian Invasion of Ukraine  in spite of his personal  domestic political  problems . In  France  I   screen  the French president’s diplomatic dilettante with the invader of Ukraine on the eve of the French  presidential  election  such   that even the French president himself  acknowledged that  he was late  into the campaign and the consequences of that for him politically .

    With  Nigeria the context and nature of the declaration of the Vice President needs  to be seen in the  light  of how he became  the Vice President in the first  instance . He  was  handpicked to represent the   former  governor of Lagos  state he   had  served loyally as Attorney General  because that former governor could not  take that post because of some political arrangement  in the politics of the party formed  then  by him and others from the North . That  leader ,  the Jagaban  has already declared his intention to contest   for  the   presidency  and has publicly  told the  outgoing   president , the leader of the party that he intends to succeed him . Now  the political ward of the Jagaban for so  long has also  declared he wants to be president . That  to me is treachery and political  betrayal .  There  is no other name for it in Yoruba culture and  tradition  , and both leaders are full  blooded Yorubas  Of course  this political  development is going to heat the political  environment  in the South  west  more than other parts of the nation . It  is not necessary to go into history yet  but this development  is more than a  mere  leadership or presidential  competition . Painfully  it reminds  one of the Awolowo/ Akintola  leadership  tussle  that led to the 1962 AG crisis  that culminated in the  first  military  Nigerian coup  of     Jan 15  1966 and the Nigerian Civil war  later . It  is not necessary  to say  more than that  for now   although  history  has a way  of  repeating itself  without anyone’s  approval , pleasure or  anger .

    In  the UK ,  the PM Boris  Johnson has  become the Houdini  of both EU and  British  politics   in the way  he has diverted attention from  his domestic political  problems by taking great strides in international relations and outpacing and  outshining  the EU on the handling  of the Russian  invasion of Ukraine . In  a way  as the architect  of Brexit  one can say he has reaped  where  he has sown . He has given more  military and logistical  support to Ukraine far  more  than the EU .Surely this would not have been possible   if  there  was no Brexit .  I   once teased   him  of wanting to be a war PM , a  role that the Ukraine   President  has played  so  brilliantly  like a round   peg  in a round hole but  Boris was not to be outdone . He  risked his life and went to war ravaged Ukraine  capital   Kiev  and  boldly  took a walk with the Ukranian  president and went back home .At  home there were calls for  him to resign  over Partigate ,the name of the scandal  that he had parties in 10 Downing St  when the rest of Britain was locked down over Covid lockdown protocols ,    but  he refused to resign  after being fined by the Metropolitan Police  for  the covid breaches .  His  Machiavellian  reply  was that  he intends to carry  out  the huge responsibility  of his election  mandate which  shows  the vintage confidence and love of power of a successful   politician . And  that has my  admiration . albeit  grudgingly  of  his arrogant  leadership  in weathering political storms effortlessly   and  quite successfully .

    Compare  Boris Johnson with  the French  President Emmanuel  Macron  who visited Russia to talk  in vain with the Russian president  who invaded Ukraine anyway  inspite  of Macron’s  many futile visits .Macron  was personally insulted as an unwanted visitor by the Russian president who discussed  with him on a long table almost the length of a room because of  covid distance protocols  .This   was said  to be  because the French  president on arrival in Russia had refused to take  covid tests at the Airport . Obviously he was a most  unwanted  visitor  of the Russian president . While  in Russia  however the French presidential election had gathered steam  in France and Macron’s  main opponent in the last  presidential election  Marie  Le  Pen closed the gap between them and the two will  meet  in the  run off   election later  this  month  . Unlike the British PM the French  president allowed international  relations to adversely affect  his reelection  chances and he has nobody but himself  to blame . Even  the Polish PM made  a mockery  of Macron’s  several failed  visits to Putin in Russia when  he asked what  the French  President  has achieved with his many Russian  visits when Russia invaded Ukraine so  decisively  and bloodily in spite of Macron’s  many visits . Surely  if the French  president is not reelected as expected ,  he has no one but himself  to blame for  allowing diplomacy to stand  extravagantly  in the way of his reelection chances .

    Overall  then whilst  we judge  these three  leaders on their  moral diligence or lack  of it on   the way they have performed  in their various political  cultures ,  we can  judge Russia  on the way it has treated the French  president . Putin  clearly showed France  that in International Relations   there are  no  permanent  friends  but permanent  interests .Macron  was scarcely  out of Russia before Putin  invaded Ukraine  in spite of Macron’s  diplomatic  shuttle  to prevent the Invasion   by Russia . It  is poor judgement on the part of the French  president that he did not read Putin’s  body language   as well  as  the  disrespect  and contempt  for both France and its President ,  inherent  in the long table discussion at the Kremlin  which  made   a laughing stock  of the  French  president when  the picture  was shown  to a global  audience . The  Russian president  knew what he was about to do and would  not be deterred by a French  president trying to show  the world that  France  was important  when that fact was lost on the invader who  wanted France out of his way  when his mind was fixed on invading Ukraine at all  cost  , anyway .That  is the nature of  morals  amongst  nations and it is indeed  very different  from  morals in human relations .

     

  • Politics, war and reconstruction

    Politics, war and reconstruction

    For  those of us who did  not witness  the last world war  but read about it , the daily  cable   news  tv  shows    of the carnage going on in Ukraine being bombarded in the Russian Invasion of that  unfortunate nation ,  is a grim and  present  recreation  or   simulation  of what the last two  world wars  had been . To  young people  all  over the world  the  carnage is a bloody  baptism  on what  the civilized nations of the world can do to each other  without  any serious  provocation . That  we all  ,  young and old,   are  witnessing this carnage first hand in our  homes world wide is  due   however   to   the   finesse , usefulness   and    beauty   of  technology  especially   satellite  technology    whose  beauty and vastness  can  become questionable at times   when you see the gory scenes of death , murder  and mayhem  bring brought home indeed  ,  to those thousands of miles  away ,  from  the  tragic   scenes  of war elsewhere .

    The  war  in Ukraine and its  spectacular  , technological   coverage,  thrives violently  globally  ,  including Nigeria because it involves  the nations that control  world politics  and  technology     in our present world . These  are the US , EU Russia  and  the nations of the former USSR .  Of  course  there  are  other  wars going on like  the one in Iraq , Syria where the capital Damascus is in ruins like the Ukrainian  cities  are  going to be sooner than later . But it is on Nigeria and our wars with Boko Haram , bandits and armed herdsmen  that  I want  to compare with the dazzling but heartless technological  coverage   of  the  war  called  the Russian Invasion of Ukraine .

    In doing  this ,  I will show that nations that   have  gone  to war with each other or have experienced civil  wars mostly  do not learn from the history  leading to such wars . Nigeria  has fought a civil  war but has learnt nothing from it and yet  military  historians have it on good authority  that no nation  survives two  civil wars .The  US and  the Allies fought and defeated Hitler’s Germany  ,   and the former USSR   was   on the same side as the nations of the present EU    and  US , but  the tide has changed and the EU has turned on Russia  the powerful runt of the former USSR which  invaded Ukraine  recently .

    Nigeria  on  its  part fought a  civil  war  under military rule  and  used  the three Rs   of  Reconstruction , Reconciliation and Rehabilitation  to redress  the ravages  of war . Yet  the animosities , ethnic  discrimination and injustice   that  provoked  the civil  war have  resurrected  so vociferously that agitated  and angry  Nigerians are calling for a restructuring or a confederation because they fear of being accused of treason if they ask  for a breakup of the Unitary government we run ,  when our constitution boldly  proclaims Nigeria , the Federal Republic of Nigeria .

    On  the side of those involved in the Invasion of Ukraine ,  the US  used  the Marshal  Plan  to rebuild Europe and Germany especially  after  WW2  . Yet  the US  entered late into WW2 as it was foot  dragging    until  Japanese planes bombed American  ships at Pear Harbour . Just  as the US  is still doing on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine where its president says US troops will  not fight in Ukraine and this  has emboldened  Russia and has demoralized  Ukraine which  is fighting for its life and  has asked the US to do more  than just imposing sanctions . Obviously  the Americans are seeing the carnage going on in Ukraine and are thinking of another Marshal  Plan  which  will  be good business for the  military  industrial  complex  that   have always  dominated and directed American  wars  globally  .  Otherwise  why  cant  the US  and  EU dare the odds and give  a No FLY  zone  over Ukraine  Especially since Russia has attacked  while the US and NATO have refused to give Ukraine NATO membership   . And yet Russia has attacked Ukraine in spite of or in the light  of the NATO membership  denial  to Ukraine .

    Again , in Nigeria the government is facing massive challenges on insecurity  to its   political   control  or authority   but  the government claims it is in control  . The  good works o f the three Rs  in the aftermath of the civil   war are  being lost in the resurrection of secession in the East where agitators now set fire  to police stations and attack  government prisons   with  impunity  .  A  former Head  of State  , a former military  ruler and elected president  , who as an army  commander obtained the surrender of Biafra recently  claimed  boldly  that the government is overwhelmed by the insecurity  challenges facing it in recent times . Yet  again the government spokesmen deny  any shortcoming .

    Anyway   the  civil  war  was predicated on the counter coup of July 1966 which  was a retaliation for Northern military officers killed in the Jan 15 1966 coup that was the first  military  coup  in Nigeria . The  North  has always  been in power in Nigeria except  for some brief  periods but insecurity in Nigeria  today  is rampant in the North   even  though the Nigerian security apparatus is manned and led largely  by well trained Northern  Nigerian security  officers .Most  Nigerians do not like  the daily  killings which  are reported more in Southern based National  newspapers . To  Nigerian    southerners ,  the newspapers , radio  and private  tv stations  bring  the news to their  homes just  like the CNN , BBC and other  big  cable news outfit  bring the Ukraine carnage to the global audience including those in Nigeria who can afford DSTV and its competitors  . In  effect  then ,  Nigerians know that Northerners are being killed by bandits and terrorists and we see the displaced people in our cities and in the traffic and our hearts go out to them for our leaders and nation to do the needful and stop the carnage . Is  that  too much  to  ask for ?  More especially   that  even former military  leaders  are lamenting that security wise things could  be better handled to save  extravagant and unwanton   loss of Nigerian  lives in the North  .  Certainly  prevention is better than cure,  although  that never seems to be the lesson  of history learnt by those nations which  have seen wars before .

    Some  time ago  as a staff writer  in the former  Daily  Times   I went on   a sponsored tour  to the    former W Germany with its capital  in Bonn . This was well after the WW2  and capitalism was thriving  in that  nation . I was told   proudly   then   that German cities were [ and still are  ]  the most  beautiful  cities in Europe because they  were rebuilt after  the war by the Americans .  I was particularly  enthralled by Dusseldorf and the City  state of Hamburg .  That  time  the Germans were pacifists and would not hear of the formation of a large army . Two  things   have  changed that  now ,  namely  the destruction  of Ukraine cities with  the prospect of their being the most beautiful cities in Europe after the  end of this Russian Invasion . Secondly  United Germany  has more  than doubled its defence budget  after  the Russian invasion of Ukraine .  Certainly  if  Germany  had been more careful with Russia in recent   times   or learnt  from history  that the leopard does not change its  spots,  the prospect of Ukrainian  cities  being blown  up before  our eyes  and being rebuilt like German cities     after    the  WW2   ,  would never  have arisen . Surely  history is repeating itself  in  a very  sarcastic  and awful  manner   right  before  our eyes .

  • Leadership, security and apologies

    Leadership, security and apologies

    Apologies  are a form of regret at what happened  or should not have happened . It is an acceptable  courtesy and quite civilized  behavior . But  context comes into play when we talk of acceptable and unacceptable apologies . Imagine Russian President Vladmir Putin  waking up one day and apologizing for his invasion of  Russia .  I am sure the world would erupt  in  a   bombshell of indignation and anger and call instead   for his head on a platter of gold .   Yet   the  American   President   refused  to  apologise  for asking for a regime change  in Russia   when that was indeed  what he meant when he said Putin should  not remain  in  power   and the world    was amused some what    with   the verbal   mix up   .A    famous actor at the stage for him to  claim an Oscar Award slapped  the MC who  made a joke about the actor’s   wife  bald head and apologized after the award  presentation  but the jury is still  out on if he can keep the award  thereafter . Today  I  give examples  of various apologies  in various  situations  and  cultures .

    After  the Kaduna train  attack  in  Nigeria , a group  of governors  apologized  for failure of capacity to govern . Immediately after Nigeria  lost the World Cup Qualifier  to Ghana in Abuja ,the Nigerian Football authorities apologized  to Nigerians .  Personally  I too apologized to a young friend of mine Joshua who  said  the match  should not  have been played in  Abuja    because of the Kaduna train  attack ,   and I told him  off  .  I  intend    to  look at all these  apologies in their  various  contexts  and leave it  to you  to  decide which  is acceptable or  not  in terms  of leadership  and the provision  of security  in the   various settings .

    On  the Kaduna train attack the Governor  was most  vocal  in asking that the bandits should  have been bombed  earlier in their locations  ,  known through intelligence to the security  forces  , because  the Attorney  General of the Federation  had secured a court  ruling classifying banditry as terrorism . The Governor wailed he was helpless  and I empathise  with him because  he was not shedding crocodile  years and his emotion  is that of a powerful  leader made helpless by circumstances  beyond  his control.Similarly    I sympathise  with the Minister of Transport who  is doing good job  in reviving our railways but is being sabotaged by terrorists and bandits  . He  too has  promised to  repair  the rail  routes destroyed  and  asked  for renewal  of air cover  by the Nigerian Airforce ,    which  was stopped before the attack  . The  Governor  has said  his state  is at war and the security  forces should rally  round to secure the state  . He  is not exaggerating given the number of deaths in his state and the North in general and the security  forces should rise  to the occasion and rescue  the state . As  for  the governors accepting collective responsibility  for failure of governance  this is a real  apology but should have been followed by their resignations .But    in the Nigerian context   leaders  don’t  resign  even after publicly accepting that their leadership has failed and they have put the security of those who elected them into office in jeorpady .

    Let  me go back  to the issue of my young friend who said   the  Nigeria / Ghana  match  should not have been played because of the proximity of Kaduna to Abuja , the venue of the match . Initially  I explained to him that being a World Cup  match FIFA would have disqualified Nigeria if the match  had been postponed because of the attack  . On  second thought however,   it  seemed possible that the train attack could  have affected the morale of the Green Eagles who played as if their minds were elsewhere and  not with the  same zeal and agility  with which  they played  the earlier match in Ghana . My  mind went back to a  similar World Cup elimination against Tunisia in Lagos when  an  own goal by Odiye  did  the damage .The  story then was that the NFA had  raised the gate fees which enraged fans and they  stoned  the  Green  Eagles bus on arrival and that petrified the players  who  could not play at their best and feared for their security in their own National Stadium in Lagos . Could the Green Eagles players have been in a similar  insecure state of mind when they faced Ghana a day  after the  Kaduna Train attack    in  Abuja ,  so close to Kaduna ?That  is a  plausible question  begging for an answer  and that  informed  my apologies to my young friend who  said the match  should  not  have been played  because  of the Kaduna train attack a  day before .

    On the issue  of the regime  change by the US  president  and  the   verbal  gaffe on Russia’s  Putin ,  the  excuses given by the both the White House and the US Secretary  of State were just  pure diplomatic window dressing  . The  truth  is that  the US  president was being very  undiplomatic  and    such  language  is not acceptable in International  Relations .  How  can  he now face Putin in any meeting on the Russian Invasion ?  This   explains  why the French President Emmanuel Macron  has called for caution in language so as not to escalate the   consequences of the Russian invasion  OF Ukraine  .Critics  of the US president  have blamed his senility  and recent absent  mindedness for  the gaffe  but there is no denying that the US president  is past  his prime  in controlling  his utterances  and more of such  diplomatic inexactitudes are bound to occur during his tenure .

    Let  us end with  the American actor  who slapped the MC  who  mocked his wife  hair style  at the Oscar Award  Ceremony  in US recently  . My  initial  reaction was to applaud  the gallantry and indignation of the actor/  husband  whose  wife indeed has  a disease that made her lose her hair and affected her hair style   and    was  indeed   present at the ceremony  . The  MC was cracking a flat  joke that was personal and in public ,  but two wrongs do not a make a right and the actor  should  not have slapped anybody  in public on account of such insult  . He later apologized but  it was like closing the stable   gate after the horses have bolted . He has degraded the Oscar and should be penalized  one way or the other  for  bringing the  prestige and honour attached to the award  into disrepute  in such a violent  manner . That  was  not acting and he should know when and where acting starts  ,  and when it ends .   As  the saying goes –  an actor  quits   the stage when  the ovation  is loudest  . He  did  not  and must  be ready for the consequences of  his action .

  • Culture, deletions and definitions

    Culture, deletions and definitions

    I look at two issues   on the topic  today  from the perspective that the laws of any nation or  community must  flow from the customs , norms and mores of that society . In  Nigeria today  the Convention of the ruling party  APC  is taking place in Abuja . But     a  guided   legal  missile has been lobbed  into proceedings by a court ruling that asked  the Attorney General  to expunge Section 84 [12 ]from the Electoral Act 2022 . One  does not need to be a  Russian invading Ukraine to know the target of this court  ruling on the eve of the Convention   of the ruling party . More importantly the AGF  has vowed to implement the Court ruling even as he called that process –work  in progress . In  the US  where  a highly  qualified judge   was being screened in the US Senate  for  appointment  as a judge of the US Supreme  Court   -SCOTUS – I was stunned when  the judge told the senator  screening her  that she cannot  define a woman when  both  of them happened to be women . This  may seem  like a  descent from the sublime to the  ridiculous  in terms  of the gravity of the  situation but  the cultural and political  context of both the court ruling on   the deletion of a section of the Nigerian   Electoral Act 2022 as  well  as  the inability of a US   legal luminary  to   define  her sex  , form the kernel of our  discussion today .

    I  wear the hat of a social scientist as I forage into  this topic today . It  is my considered view that THE  presidential  system of government practiced in both Nigeria and the US is based on the principle of separation of powers . This entails that the three arms of power and government , namely the Executive , the Judiciary  and the legislature operate in a system  of checks and balances ,such  that there is no misuse of power or abuse of office . That  means there is no room for a dictatorship  in which  one part dictates to the other and that is the essence of democracy in a presidential  system of government .It  is my contention that there is some absurdity in the two  events I  mentioned  earlier  involving the instruction of the court to the Nigerian AGF  to  expunge a part  of the Electoral Act and the inability of a seasoned  US   judge  and  Supreme Court  candidate   to  say who a woman is ,  when she and the  Senator  questioning  her ,  belong to the  same   female sex  of  humanity . Such   absurdity , which is a conundrum of sorts ,  is what we want to unravel  today .

    In  both the US and Nigeria  the judiciary  interprets  the  law  as it is in the  constitutions . The legislature  makes  laws and sends them to the executive which approves or vetoes the proposed law which the legislature  can override  under  some circumstances  all  within the purview of the constitution . It  is not the duty of the judge or the judiciary to delete any  part of the constitution . That is extra judicial and that  is the conundrum behind  the deleting of section 84 [12]  as well as its timing so close to a ruling party ‘s  all  important convention . According to  reports the party is playing safe and has abided by the ruling for today’s  convention .That  means that the party will not  have  its best hands from this convention but it shows  respect for  the rule of law and that is a great thing for the party . But  the party  should sit  up and be  more vigilant as eternal  vigilance  is the price  of liberty  , as well as the oil  that keeps the engine  of power running in the party and not in the opposition at election times . I expect  an appeal on the judge’s deletion order  although  given the way the AGF has spoken that cannot be done before today’s  convention . Again I affirm  that in a presidential system  of government ,  the judiciary  interprets the law as it is and is not expected to delete any  part of it . That is the responsibility of the legislature and Nigeria cannot  be an exception .

    In  the same vein , a super  judge in the US cannot  refuse to define a woman when  she is one . Replying that a legal issue can arise from the definition  or that  she is not a biologist   is a poor  judicial   answer , if any .  .If  not that she is black  , and would be the first black woman on  the US Supreme Court  ,  I  would have wished she is not confirmed because  she seems more concerned with getting the job than living up  to  her own womanhood . What sort of a  judge is  that ? Yet  the conundrum here is that she is playing up to  the  gay and gender  rights  caucus  and  that is part  of what divides the US mightily and  politically  nowadays . The  Republican Senator/Questioner  also asked the judge about Critical Race Theory being taught in a school where she is a member of the Board of Trustees and she said the school  is a private school . Is  the SCOTUS  job  not  a prestigious public and career  job which   requires both  public and  private  concerns ? The sort of political culture prevailing in the US which  has now thrown up a SCOTUS candidate that  cannot define a woman in public  is the sort  of opprobrium that divides nations like China and Russia on one side and the US and EU nations on the other . European values endorse  the sort of inability to call a woman a woman because  gay couples would  be offended , as the first  black  woman  on the SCOTUS  just exhibited in the US senate  this week. If  you  add  to that the   news  in the US that former men ,  now identified as female  , compete and beat real female athletes in some sports in the US making real girls  unable to win or realize their dreams  of winning medals as real girls ,  then you see that America is really  headed confusedly   in a lost  direction of cultural and mental  decay  .

    Now let  me end  on the   note that a political system deserves  the  results  that it gets because it sets  the rules of the game and must  abide  with them  and   their  consequences , real  and unintended  . The saying is apt that as you make your  bed so you lie   on it  . In  Nigeria the APC  controls both  the Executive  and Legislature  yet  it  has been rubbished by  the   judiciary   with  a court  order  on   deletion    in a law  ,  that on Appeal  ,  should  be dismissed as ultra vires . In  the US , the incumbent  president campaigned and promised   in the 2020    presidential    elections  to appoint a black  woman as judge  on SCOTUS   and did  so  . Only  for  the appointee to get to the senate and refuse to define a woman . I wish   this   first   black , woman appointee of the US president  the best of luck  on the SCOTUS   and  remind  her she  was  appointed in the first instance because she is a full blooded black  woman  . No  legalities  or   cultural   wars   can mask that fact .Period .

     

  • Leaders, intelligence and mettle

    Leaders, intelligence and mettle

    I draw  inspiration from the dramatic arts today to put across my point of view on the topic of   the day . Undoubtedly,   two   world  leaders dominate  the world  news  today , with one as victim and   the other as villain or aggressor  and that  is with regard to the  unexpected invasion  of Ukraine by Russia  on February  24  2022 . .Ukraine is led by an actor  Zelensky  and   Russia  by a former  spy  ,   Putin , and the die is cast with  the sympathy of the civilized world with Ukraine . These then are  the initial dramatis personae  I want to feature to illustrate the virtues of leadership that  I want to dilate on today .  I  now go back to Shakespeare and quote  from one of  his plays which  has  a long  introductory  verse that says ‘ All  the world is a stage and one man in   his time plays  many parts  ‘ . The quote then went on to highlight many parts in a man’s growth in life till  the end ,   But  it is that introductory  part that catches my attention today  with   regard     to  the role of the Ukrainean    president Zelensky  in rallying support for his beleaguered   nation made prostrate by  the invasion  of  Russia .

    It   is my contention that many leaders of NATO  and  EU and  also  the US   would  love to be in the shoes of the Ukranean leader ,  not in terms of the tragedy of the Russian invasion   but  in terms of the courage , bravery and mettle which the former actor who played  before ,   the  role of president of a fictional  nation is now doing  so gracefully and elegantly ,  to get  the sympathy of the world for  his invaded nation .  I know  UK PM Boris Johnson would love that as well as former British PM Tony  Blair.  This   is  because these two envied  Winston Churchill, Britain’s very  successful  WW2 war  leader whose historical  role Ukraine’s president is playing so reminiscently  as if reading from a drama script when  in reality  no one expected this war like this . But     the  comparison is apt   and   amazing  and  is a huge commendation  and    recognition   of   the  high    leadership   value  that the world is giving the Ukrainean leader .  Even as he pleads for the US , EU and NATO  to allow a No Fly  zone over his nation so that Putin  will  not kill  his nation from the skies as it  considers the membership application of Ukraine to join EU and NATO  .

    If  you  look back at recent wars in our  time ,  like the first and second Gulf Wars, the Iraqi  War , and the invasion of Crimea  leading   to this 2022 Russian invasion ,   and the leaders involved  ,  you will see that this 45 year  old Ukrainean pleading for  the saving of the life of his nation from bloody Russian strangulation ,  is truly  a leader in a million . US  President George Bush Snr formed the coalition of nations that stopped the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein but  his greatest achievement  was in  presiding over the unification of Germany in 1989 and the collapse of the USSR in1991 which Putin is trying to reverse  with this invasion of Ukraine  by Russia nowadays . But  George Bush Snr  was a taciturn man who never glorified his unique achievements  in his one term of office . His  son  President George Bush Jnr  was a good war leader and avenged American humiliation over 9/11   but  he too was not eloquent and got his fingers burnt with his partner , UK Tony Blair , for starting the Iraqi  war against  Saddam on the false premise that  the Iraqi leader had  weapons of mass destruction .

    Let  us now look at  the excuse for not allowing the No Fly  zone over Ukraine by the US and NATO – which  is escalation of the crisis in that it will mean both US and NATO  would  cross  swords  with Russia in the skies and that  would not be palatable to the west . But  then this is cowardice by both the US and NATO as  the sanctions  are  taken as escalation already by Russia . In addition the absent  minded  US president   Joe Biden   has already mistakenly  called Putin a ‘ war criminal’  making further  dialogue  or diplomacy impossible on the Russian  Invasion  and I think  that is a worse situation than creating the No Fly  zone and engaging  the Russians in the skies which is inevitable . This   is  because Putin has blackmailed the US and NATO on this invasion successfully  and they  have succumbed and blackmailers  never relent  once they  have their way with their victims .

    Now  let us look at the mentality and intelligence of the Russian leader Vladmir Putin who launched  the invasion of Ukraine . It  is necessary  to separate his intelligence as a leader from the intelligence on his opponents and the nations he considers as enemies of Russia . Looking backwards  with  his major adversary , the US ,   he has been chummy with Republican US presidents like George Bush Jnr and  Donald Trump . He  never liked  Democrat  Obama and invaded  Crimea during Obama’s tenure in 2014 . He  foraged into Syria and the Middle East  during Obama’s watch as president . He  has invaded Ukraine because he sees the Biden Administration as an  extension of the  Obama one with  no stomach  for a fight except on Climate Change and  gay  rights and gender  equality  which the Russian leader and his people hold in contempt  . Obviously  he is an intelligent leader and a competent one but he has been let  down  by the quality of  intelligence he was given that Ukraine  would be a walk over and that their president was just a clown .  Now   Ukraine’s resistance and the mettle of its president  has shown him that his intelligence officers should have known better . It  is a great pity  that the west  underrated  Putin and his resolve  to punish  the US  for  the role the Obama Administration played  in funding protests I Russia when Putin  wanted to return as president a second time when Hillary Clinton was US Secretary of State . Putin  has scores  to settle with US as  a nation and its  cultural  values on sex which  the EU  has adopted as European  values that disrespect family  values and extol  human rights and gay values . To   Putin , like Hitler  before him  gays are like Jews to be sent to death but  a civilized world would  or should not fold its hands and allow him . Which  is all what the Ukrainean president has been saying  in recent days to the deaf ears of US , EU and NATO .

    Let  us end up with leadership issues  in Nigeria where the  campaigns for  the 2023presidential  elections are gathering steam . One  thing  is clear there is a leading candidate   ,  the  Jagaban and the difference is clear . Yet  it seems that some people think that this leading candidate does not  have the   mettle  or  guts to make the distance . I  think  that  is a mistake   and I will  give an analogy  show how   I feel . Prior  to the pandemic we had  sick  president who  survived the pandemic and is on the home stretch   to hand  over . That  is the Grace  of God  .  This   leading candidate is,  in my view  ,  his potential  successor in this political terrain and the reason is not far fetched . There is a lot of political  mess to be cleared up  in terms  of insecurity , corruption and Fulani herdsmen and kidnapping . Only  an insider   who   has  proven  cross  country   ties,  intelligence , connections   and   alliances  , especially  one who stepped aside  before , can clear the Augean stable   of our polity in2023 . And  that is the  Jagaban  who  has  paid his dues and has waited on the sidelines  for too long  .   There  is  a Nigerian  proverb   that says –  ‘ the     stealth     of the tiger  should   not be mistaken  for  cowardice’  .  He  has my respects and goodwill . Let  the Games begin .

     

  • War, weapons and climate

    War, weapons and climate

    Nigeria is a  good example  to illustrate the well  known statement  that oil  is  a curse . It  may  sound contradictory  given  that oil is  wealth and a  good  one ,  for any nation . But look around you and you   see  that oil  has been more of a curse  than a blessing to our great  nation . There  is fuel  shortage  right now and the price of diesel  and gasoline has risen sharply  but Nigerians are used to it and would buy petrol at any price as long as it is available so that they  can go about their lives and eke out  a living . Nigeria has been labelled a mono product economy not because it has no other mineral  resources but    oil  is the dominant  revenue  generator and our president  is our Minister of  Oil .That  is how far we shall  go on Nigeria for now on this matter .

    In  the world at large ,  oil  has become a weapon of war in the invasion of Ukraine by  Russia   and Europe which   gets  30 percent of its  oil  as well  as 40  per cent   of  its gas  from Russia ,  is  feeling the heat ,    not necessarily  because there is  a furnace  but  because   Europe  and the US  have stopped  buying Russian oil . Funny  enough the US  and Saudi Arabia   are  the  first and second   biggest suppliers of oil  in the world and Russia  is the third . The  dilemma for both  the US and Europe  is that they  are trying to  phase out oil  because it pollutes  the environment and are  looking  fervently   for an alternative to power their heavily oil  dependent economies and industries,  but  oil is still  king in powering their    economies  and  societies . But   war  has no respect  for climate  or green  energy  and has shown  its  ugly face in winter in Europe in  a  war  which  no one expected and which  has thrown Europe into  chaos , with  thousands of refugees fleeing  Ukraine   to Poland  and   other   friendly  neighboring   nations  ,  which    have welcomed  them  with  open hands  while  banning  the buying of  Russian   oil  which  Europe  needs  , so badly  ,  in the prosecution  of this war  in which  Russia  has invaded Ukraine  so  cheekily  and with such impunity  and  violence.

    It  is important to know  that  many of the governments in the EU, 27- member  nations  got elected in recent times on a campaign  for  climate  change and they  won power on an ideology of climate  change . This  war is now  making them  to cut their  noses  to  spite their faces .  In  the present  French  presidential  campaign  and  election    due   soon   ,   presidential  candidate and  present President Emanuel    Macron  has promised to make France  the first EU  nation  to  be  fossil  fuel   free  with  the total  use of green energy  to save the environment  . Germany ‘s  new successor  government  to Angela Merkel’s  long leadership  of Germany  is made up of a strong  coalition of climate adorers and activists . Even  the US  which  is looking for oil after banning  the purchase of Russian oil  has a Biden Administration  that  campaigned and won the 2020 presidential election on a pledge  to phase  out fossil  fuel  which  is oil .. Now  the EU   and  the US  are counting ,  if not ruing  , the cost  of their long   term view of saving the universe  in the face of the bloody ,  oil  relevant and needy  war  , that oil rich Russia has unleashed on Europe with the most unexpected invasion of Ukraine .

    Let  me now analyse the many  dilemmas facing  the actors and participants in this war that  I have  decided to label Putin’ s War . I will use   Russia   the aggressor ,  the  US , the EU , Germany      , Poland  and Nigeria as examples  of how oil as a weapon of war , attrition and decay has become the most potent opponent  of  the goal  of those who want it phased out for green and climate  focused energy  but still  cannot survive this Putin War  without oil .The intention  here is not  to glamorize  oil  and its importance .It  is to show like ,  the Yoruba proverb says  , that   ‘ until  you  have seized   the hilt  of your sword ,  you  do not inquire  who  killed your father . ‘

    We  start with Russia , the invader of Ukraine in Putin’s War . In retrospect ,  and  now with the power of hindsight,  one  can identify  Putin’s  grouse although  it was lost in plain sight . NATO  or the US never  addressed Putin’s  security  concern  over Ukraine just to say Ukraine  would not join the EU and the security implications of that . Putin , in a belligerent  now ominous speech wondered about ‘ those who  think they  own  the world   ‘ and warned that historically and culturally Ukraine  is an inseparable part  of Russia , like Belarus as the trio are Slavs  .  It   is clear  to Putin  ,  who  those  ‘who own the world  ‘ are,  namely the US and EU,  the epitome  and arrow head  of western civilization which  won  the Cold war after the second World War and dismantled the USSR under Gorbachev in 1991 . Putin’s War in 2022  is a redress of  that   historical  fact and  the West  saw it coming  but were hoping against  hope  that  Putin  would not  have  the guts to go to full scale war . They  read Putin wrong  with all the intelligence at their disposal . Now  they must  count  their losses in bloody , tragic terms .

    Let  me now take  the EU  and US   together  before I take Germany  and Poland  on the same boat . When  the Biden Administration came to  power I started this column  and noted that the Biden government would try to muscle  Nigeria on  Climate  Change ,   the phasing out of fossil  fuel  and that we should resist , as oil is Nigeria’s  main  livelihood .  That  was during the pandemic and  I still  have such  fears  .  But  then this Putin’s War  has changed economic  and political  equation on fossil  fuel  and climate change . The EU  and US  need oil not because they  do not have oil but  have paralysed  themselves on using oil to fight this war because they got to power on the promise  to their electorate  that  they would phase out oil in 20  to  30 years . Now  they have a war with Russia    and  have blocked use of Russian oil but  cannot now produce  their own oil where available because they are  commited  to Climate Change and the elimination of fossil  fuel  . Nothing illustrates eating your cake and still  having it better .

    In  the case of Germany and Poland , the hangover  of the WW2 is  giving way  to stark  pragmatism . The naivety of the Angela Merkel long  chancellorship   is  giving way  to new economic  and military  realities . Merkel  was warned  that oil pipeline from Russia to Germany  could be used as an economic weapon against Germany  but she retorted  that Putin has promised not to do so. Now  where is Angela Merkel ? After the atrocities of the Nazis under Hitler Germany  became  a  war  loathing nation  but  since the start of Putin’s War it  has cancelled  the Pipeline Project  with Russia and has increased  its Defence  Budget  very  grossly  to be able to defend its territorial  integrity in the face of Putin’s War . Poland  which  suffered immensely under Nazi Occupation  has offered its fleet  of some war planes to the US to protect  Ukraine while asking for superior US was planes   to protect itself . Poland  is pragmatic  enough to  know  that after Ukraine  the Russians  would be gunning  for Poland as Hitler  did in the second world war . Poland  is proactive in preparing for  Putin’s war than the US  which  was surprised by Poland’s  offer which it  reportedly found   quite  interesting  .

    Now  let us round up  with Nigeria where oil  has become a weapon  of war of a different category . It  has created immense wealth for certain categories  of Nigerians , especially  the political  class who in government ,   control  the oil proceeds, blessings and profits ,  both legal  and illegal .It  has spawned  huge and insurmountable  inequalities  between the poor  and the rich in Nigeria . Indeed oil has become  a weapon of suppression and corruption based  on the    architecture    of an expensive American  presidential   system  of government  minus its  inherent  checks  and balances between the executive , the judiciary and the legislature . This  has created  a highly insecure  environment  especially  in the North where an invasion  of insurgents  has created millions of displaced  people   not lucky  to be focused on CNN like  the victims of Putin’s War  in Ukraine . Definitely  ,  oil  has  invaded Nigeria  for a long time  certainly  not like Putin’s  war in Ukraine , but  even as a more potent destroyer of the quality of life of most  Nigerians. Except those who  cornered the oil and  are reveling in their ill gotten wealth at the expense  of the  poor  Nigerian masses ,  living largely in penury .

  • Elections, democracy and diplomacy

    Elections, democracy and diplomacy

    I want  to  see the  sanctions  handwringing that  the   US  and  NATO   are  doing on the defence of Ukraine  against  the  on going Russian invasion of that nation ,  as a   simulation   of the proverb  ‘ of the cat that would eat fish  from the pond ,  without getting its paws wet  ‘ . Sanctions don’t  stop wars they destroy economies  and ruin  the lives  of poor  citizens   while   the  leadership   targets or oligarchs   can always  make sure  they avert  a coming   train  easily   . Iran is a case in point and Russia is used  to sanctions  any way . Essentially what EU and NATO  are telling Ukraine   is that ‘ you are not one of us and you have no voting rights and we can’t risk  a war with Russia because our rules  say  we can only help or fight ,  all  together as one ,  for those who are our members and  not non members that we have empathy  or sympathy for ‘  .  I  want  to analyse    NATO’s dilly dallying on Ukraine’s lack of access to Nato membership in the light of voting rights and access  in democracies  and how different political  systems  see elections in terms of political participation and the sustenance or killing of democracy ,  depending   on which side of the political system  that one is located .

    Democracy  is  all about  access to political  participation which is voting at the ballot box . Eligibility for that has taken a trouncing over the ages and property and race used to be part of the criteria for eligibility . But  the world has made great  progress and what we have now is one man one vote  . That  of course does not apply in China where the Chinese Communist Party runs the  nation on behalf of the rest and Russia where   Invasion Czar Vladmir Putin  calls the shots and the Russian Parliament  rubber stamps such that only  Putin can know why  he finally decided that Russia must invade and crush Ukraine regardless of the norms of democracy in other parts of the world .

    In  the US this last week primaries  elections took place in both the Republican  and Democratic Parties     in   Texas  ,   with  new election rules by the state legislature  after the  2020  presidential elections which former President Donald  Trump claimed were rigged but which  the Democrats  called ‘ the Big Lie ‘. Nevertheless    many states in the US   especially in Republican states    tightened voting rights mostly  asking for identity cards for absentee  or  mail  in  voters which  the Democrats called denying such people access to voting . Which  means Democrats want voters to vote without any form of accreditation which is unthinkable in Nigeria where voters cards are recognized ,identification even for bank transactions  . Yet  the voting went smoothly in Texas as scheduled . Which  gives a lie to the Democrats claim of the Big lie on the 2020 Elections .Democrats  had insisted that  the new rules were aimed at black  voters  but  other  leading Black leaders have condemned  that as insults to blacks  who knew of such rights and issues since the time of the civil rights movement of Marti Luther King .

    In Nigeria where rigging is common place,  voters access is recognized through  voter  cards which  are presented at voting  booths .Incidentally  two officials in charge of our last three elections made the news for various  reasons .  One  was a condemnation of the leadership thrown up by the elections conducted by the official and the other was on expansion of voters access and political participation at the 2023 general and presidential elections .  According to reports Attahiru Jega   who presided over the 2011  and 2015  elections lamented  that Nigeria  is suffering under the  reckless  misrule of Nigerian elites  and the nation is on the verge of collapse with the 2023 election as the last saving grace . Addressing a trade union confab Jega reportedly wailed that  ‘ the manner by which these myopic’ ‘ elected  so called  leaders and their collaborators have devastated the Nigerian economy, heightened insecurity , and virtually destroyed the basis for national  cohesion and integration in Nigeria, as a potentially great nation, is crying  for a  rescue mission  before it is too late ‘ While  Jega’s concern is real  and not misplaced ,  it  is  like a case of the pot calling the kettle bad  . The leaders he is condemning   are products of the elections he conducted . Couldn’t he have seen the signs of looming decay as a professor of political science given the quality of candidates and the role of money in his elections which were said to be vastly  rigged but for which he received  accolades then ?. This is like getting wise after the event .

    According    to   reports , Jega’s  successor Professor Mahmood Yakubu   has extolled  the pilot tests carried out   with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System in recent by elections as a preparation for the 2023 elections . He said  voting booths are being increased for the first time in 25 years from 56,872  to 176, 846 . This is a welcome development . It now remains for INEC to  follow its own rules and ensure that accreditation is  uniform with  voters  cards all  over the nation ,   such  that we do not have   registered   voters  using voters cards in one part  of the nation while other parts just allow  mass voting   of    unregistered    voters  , without voters  cards  ,   in other  parts  . That  could  be  the last hope for the existence of Nigeria over the 2023 elections that  his predecessor  was pointing out to workers who are  helpless in helping the situation any way .

    Now  let  me  end this analogy of NATO’s  non military help for Ukraine on the exclusion tone of Ukraine’s  non membership of NATO .  This  war  of invasion was predicated on  Putin’s  insistence that Ukraine  must  not have access  to NATO membership  because  that would bring a security threat to Russia’s doorstep and would involve Russia  having to fight NATO in the  case of a war with Ukraine . That  has   turned out to be a lie now   because  Russia is fighting or invading Ukraine  which  has  been denied   not  only access  to NATO membership by the EU but  has also  been denied American  troops in its defence by the American  president . Obviously   Ukraine  is being urged on ,  on CNN and  with sanctions ,    to stand  in the path of a fast   moving train  which a determined Putin Russia is and the result is predictable . We  can then  very sadly look forward to  tragic sights and moving spectacles of blood and murder of   innocent Ukranians  on CNN while  the issue of Ukraine’s access  to NATO membership  is left in limbo  . The  truth is that this American  president  has no stomach  for any fight and that is the policy of his party . The hasty   US departure   from Afghanistan  gave Putin the courage  to stage the invasion of Ukraine . Similarly  the inability of the US to punish Syria for using  chemical weapons as promised by the  Obama Administration   gave Putin an inroad  to the Middle East as well as the invasion of Crimea in 2014 .

    Obviously  the Ukrainians  have  made a serious miscalculation in relying on American  promises on their  protection . They  are not alone . Even NATO  , which  the US leads ,  is learning to plan for its security  outside American help in the immediate future,  if not now . I think  , quite   tragically  , the Ukrainian  leadership simply  missed  the bus with American promises on  their  security  ,  as the flood of thousands of Ukrainians  fleeing  the war  on    overcrowded  trains  so  sadly and vividly illustrate .  Nothing    shows  the   betrayal  of both democracy and diplomacy  better  ,  as well  as   the arrogance  and the glorification of access and membership ,  at the expense of life and humanity .

  • Security, diplomacy and politics

    Security, diplomacy and politics

    I want  to use the actions of some politicians and world leaders this week to illustrate the topic of the day . In  the world of the last week the most important man and leader  was Russia’s President Vladmir  Putin who finally launched a’ military action’ against Ukraine   which his main adversary , US President Joe Biden   called  the beginning of the’ Russian invasion of Ukraine ‘.  In  the Nigerian Legislature  a  bill  is being  proposed as a constitutional amendment to grant life pension to its main officers namely the President of the Senate and his Deputy as well as the Speaker of the House of Representatives and his Deputy .  The  motives and consequences of these two diverse events as well as their ethical , diplomatic  ,cultural  and political implications ,  form the kernel  of our discussion today .

    I  start with a general  censure  for the actions   of  Putin , Biden and the  honorable members of the Nigerian legislature as being   so   insensitive and nonchalant to public interest,    goodwill   and peace in the way they have come into the news this last week . I will make preliminary  observations before I conclude with glaring examples of their leadership  deficiencies and greed in the way and manner they have acted in the light of the topic of the day .

    We  start with Russian President Vladmir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine , the preparations of which the west saw with the aid of technology and thought  ,  stupidly    ,   that  it  would   be deterred  by the threat of economic  sanctions . Putin’s  action  on Ukraine has shown  the failure of both diplomacy  and  the   threat    of sanctions as  bargaining weapons      to prevent war  in modern times . It  is the dawn of a new era in political  culture and international  relations . Just  imagine , the west  ,namely NATO , US , UK   saw war  coming like the proverbial handwriting on the wall  and  did  nothing pragmatic to deter or stop Russia except to dangle sanctions which  obviously irritated and infuriated the Russian leader to pursue his objectives on security which the west both ignored and  denied .  Putin’s  security  concerns were clear on security and Russian   sovereign self  interests . He  warned that Ukraine should never join NATO , because  if it does , Russia will  have to fight NATO as any attack on any member of NATO is  regarded by NATO’ s treaty as an attack on NATO  calling for  a joint defence . Putin  warned that if Ukraine joins NATO , Crimea , which Russia seized in 2014  will  be retrieved by Ukraine with NATO  help .Thirdly Putin wants  NATO not  to send weapons to it new members like Poland and the Baltic states which  joined NATO in 1997 .

    All  the three security  concerns of Putin are incompatible with NATO’s  strategic security interests since the end of the  WW2 , the beginning  of the Cold War with USSR and  the disintegration of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev in 1991 . Now  after checking  the waters in Moldova , Georgia , and Crimea and getting  away with murder in International Relations and diplomacy , Putin has come of age  in seeing  that the west is weakened  by cultural  values on sex and family and is riddled by liberalism and disorder on human rights  . An  Ukranian  lady   summed  it up succinctly when  she said Putin does  not respect either democracy  or diplomacy and thinks both  are  idiotic . I  cannot agree more as Putin  bares the Russain bear’s  fangs  -and like Shakespeare  noted  in the timeless piece called Henry V  ,  dares   the west –‘   When the sounds of war  blows in our ears , then imitate the action of  the Tiger .’

    The  impotence of the west and blind belief in diplomacy   are  best  seen in the  meeting of the  Security Council  in the UN even as the Russian Ambassador was denying the invasion and the Ukranean Ambassador  was asking him  directly to use his smart phone  to call  his masters in Moscow .

    The  US  President  promised not to send US troops  and kept his promise. Germany  too stopped approval  for the oil pipelines and the US sent its VP Kamilla Harris  to a NATO security meeting in Germany. The American  VP spoke in such a disjointed  manner that a Fox News Columnist observed most wickedly that Putin would find it unbelievable that the US , a Super power  will  be led by a senile man and an imbecile . All  what Biden  could offer was a last ditch meeting with Putin provided the invasion had not happened but it did and the meeting was cancelled .

    The  role of western intelligence baffled me no end as to its goals  or objectives . Intelligence should be used to stop the enemy in its tracks on its next action and avert hostility and tragedy . In   this unfolding Ukraine Crisis  western , intelligence , the NATO Chief ,  the US Secretary of State Anthony  Blinken as  well as his UK  counterpart , knew what the Russians were up to but did nothing to thwart them except  to arrange  more security meetings . It  was as if they were the  outside BBC broadcast  service  for the invading Russian army . The  spectacle  was a  grim lesson in the failure of diplomacy and celebration of inertia in the face of great  danger . Obviously western civilization has shot itself in the leg with the way it has handled Putin and should brace itself  for the   menace    and   murderous    nuisance  of  another Hitler  with  a well armed and well positioned  army  at his beck and call . History  as they say is surely  repeating itself right before  our eyes .

    It  may seem  less tragic or dangerous to human  lives , as in a war ,  to compare the payment of life pensions  to Nigerian legislators as  is being  contemplated  this last week . But  the comparison is apt  in that  it  is an invasion of  an entitlement  for which they are  not entitled by law , culture , ethics and human rights . The  analogy is that they are violating the pensions rights and goals of Nigerians just  like Putin has violated the sovereignty of Ukraine   while those  who should stop him were  literally applauding him from afar albeit  with promised sanctions . The  political  culture for this constitutional  misstep  was laid  by section 84 [ 5]  of the Nigerian constitution which  guarantees  life  pensions for all presidents and vice  presidents  and  on which  the nation  reportedly  spends about 7.8 bn naira  annually . This  proposal  should  not be allowed to see the light of day and we need to look at the concept  ,  objectives   and  origins  of pensions generally .

    Pensions are a form of security    ,  insurance   and comfort  against the rainy  day after long service in the public or private sectors . It  is a earned income and can be contributory or not . It is not meant  for those elected to short political terms like politicians which  the legislators are  . Politicians  are meant to serve the public and are well  paid to do these especially  with  constituents allocations . Elected officials  have tenure and are not meant  to serve for life in a democracy . They are not supposed to make laws for their selfish ends  as the Nigerian legislators  are contemplating . It  is immoral and self serving . In a nation where military and Railway and Aviation pensioners collapse and die while waiting  for pensions  on long queues ,  it  is bad  to have life  pensions for high  spending legislators who pad state and national budgets instead  of cutting costs and expenditure proposed  by the executive as expected in a presidential  system of government . If  the greedy aim of the legislators is to assure their comfort after their short political  terms  of office they  should be warned  that  the public would  eye  them  differently , armed with  the knowledge  that they are reaping where they did not sow and that  would put their security in jeorpady for  life as they would be seen as living  on borrowed robes . Which  is the same thing as stolen money . The  ball is in their court  for  good  or bad .