Category: Comments

• By Godfrey Money

For the average Nigerian, or what some others may refer to as the commoner, economic development or progress is measured by the prices of foodstuffs in the market vis-à-vis their financial resources. Hence food inflation is the single, most determinant economic factor for the common man. Even though transportation fares or the prices of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) go up, the impact is measured by the prices of food items in the market. And when farmers are driven out of the farms by insecurity, there will be a dearth of food supply in the market, hence rise in food prices; the standard of living, viewed from food prism, plummets or nose-dives.

The foregoing is an acknowledgement of the current hardship, especially the food crisis being faced by many Nigerians. The hardship, in different degrees, had always been there since the 1980s but took a turn for the worse under the immediate past administration due to its economic inertia and self-inflicted policy choices that condoned the menace of herdsmen, who ravaged with impunity the entire country and drove away from the farms the largely agrarian population of Nigeria. Kidnapping, maiming and killings by herdsmen and bandits became the order of the day. The economic effects now stare us in the face.

Before the current government was inaugurated on May 29, 2023, ginormous sums of naira that could have been deployed to open the rural areas and revolutionise agriculture through massive road networks and agro-allied industries, to improve healthcare and education, were expended on fuel subsidy, which was a scam of monumental proportions, and the fight against insecurity, which was exacerbated by the nonchalant attitude of the then central government. The fuel subsidy regime was a complete scam; it was a cesspool of corruption by a few elites.

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By the time Tinubu assumed office as president, the country was in dire financial straits. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited was no longer remitting revenue to the Federation Account, indeed was in debt and could not meet its Joint Venture commitments. The debt service-to-revenue ratio was about 97% with a FOREX backlog in the neighbourhood of $7billion, which is a disincentive to foreign investments in the country. Many state governments were drowning in debt, owing a backlog of salaries and failing to meet financial obligations to contractors. In short, the economy was in a state of comatose and in need of radical reforms.

On February 12, 2024, a former CBN Governor, Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, underscored the parlous state of the economy inherited by the Tinubu government in the following words:

“I have been, over the years, talking about the pending crisis ahead of the current economic hardship. Any economist who has studied monetary policy in the last eight years knows that Nigerians will fall into this difficult situation. The difficult situation Nigerians are facing is just the beginning (if the right decision is not put in place) because Nigeria is not exceptional; such situations happened in Germany, Zimbabwe, Uganda, and Venezuela.

“The previous administration turned adamant about our appeal for corrective measures (on the economic policy). For eight years, we were living a fake lifestyle with huge debt from foreign and domestic debts. The Central Bank of Nigeria owes over N30 trillion, which resulted in debt service surpassing 100 per cent.

“It’s injustice for anyone to blame the Tinubu administration for the current economic hardship because there is no other alternative than the removal of the fuel subsidy. After all, Nigeria cannot even afford to pay the subsidy. In the last eight years, the Central Bank continued to print more money, and the naira continued to depreciate. There is too much naira in circulation because the CBN is printing the currency without restraint. The economy was poorly managed, and they are not willing to take advice; in the last eight years, apart from sycophancy, nothing has been done.”

During his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy, and shortly after floated the naira in order to stop arbitrage, which threw up overnight millionaires under the last administration.

The Federal Government has since cleared the inherited FOREX backlog of $7 billion and commenced the implementation of a N70,000 National Minimum Wage. The debt service-to-revenue ratio is now around 65 per cent with about $30 billion Foreign Direct Investments in the country. What is more, Nigeria’s foreign reserves have risen to $40.4 billion while trade surplus increased by 209 percent by the end of 2024. The GDP grew by 3.85 percent in less than two years of the current government, with a projection of an annual growth of seven percent.

All indigent students of federal higher institutions of learning now have access to loans through the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) to further their education, the first of its kind on that scale in this country. Insecurity levels have dropped; hence food inflation is gradually easing off.

However, the sudden resurgence of killings in Benue and Plateau States in recent weeks is concerning, especially in the light of the charge that it is connected to the next general elections. Without security, there can be no significant economic development. Hence the government must act fast and decisively to contain the situation in order to sustain the economic gains.

As a result of removal of fuel subsidy, the state governments now receive more funds from the Federation Account, not just to pay salaries but embark on massive economic development projects. Among the 36 federating states, Delta is showing a good example. In such a short time of less than two years in office, the Governor Sheriff Oborevwori administration has repaid over 50 percent of the humongous debt he inherited from the previous government. This is unprecedented in the annals of the state. The state also exceeded its revenue target by nearly 200 percent.

In order to foster economic development, the state government is investing massively in education, vocational training, agriculture and small-scale businesses. Delta State can be described as one huge construction site. For the first time in the history of the state, Julius Berger is building roads and bridges. The ripple effects of such massive projects are trickling down to the grassroots in terms of thousands of jobs created and economic activities stimulated. Expectedly, this will lead to economic expansion, social mobility and rise in the standard of living.

With insecurity contained, rise in oil production expected to hit two million barrels per day, complemented by the continuous rise in non-oil revenues, and the just-introduced “Nigeria First” policy, designed to prioritise locally manufactured goods in all government procurement processes, there is no doubt that the economy will soon turn a new page for the betterment of Nigerians.

•Money writes from Ughelli, Delta State

To begin with, any assessment of the subnational level must acknowledge that Nigeria’s federal system is defective and quasi-federalist in nature. Put bluntly, it operates with the ethos of a tightly centralized “Bonapartist state”.

This is the truth of the matter: no matter how well a subnational governor performs, the operating framework handicaps him. It’s like a boxer fighting with one hand behind his back. In other words, there’s a debilitating limit to what a governor can achieve. For instance, governors of states like Benue, Plateau and Zamfara have discovered that the title of Chief Security Officer is more in humour than in reality. To drive meaningful development, subnational governors need full operational command of internal security forces in their states, similar to their counterparts in countries like the USA, Australia, Brazil and Canada.

“Natio quae suos alit, prosperitatem colit” (A nation that nurtures its people, cultivates prosperity).  What scorecard can you give the governor of Benue State in agricultural development when the ecosystem is perennially disrupted, hindering short-, medium-, and long-term planning for farmers, government and logistics alike? How can a governor in that situation create an enabling environment to attract the much-needed investments into the agricultural value chain, with a view to generating hundreds of direct jobs and thousands of indirect ones?

Today, it is challenging for governors to perform optimally, unlike past leaders like Lateef Kayode Jakande in Lagos, Michael Adekunle Ajasin in Ondo, the outstanding Sam Onunaka Mbakwe in Imo, and Muhammadu Abubakar Rimi in Kano. While some contemporary governors, such as Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO) in Ekiti, Babajide Olusola Sanwo-Olu (BOS) in Lagos, and Oluseyi Abiodun Makinde (GSM) in Oyo, exhibit flashes of good performance, they are swimming against a stultifying tide.

Makinde, for example, even before Donald Trump’s disruption, had a commendable foresight to aspire for an Oyo State that’d evolve into an export-oriented economy. He deserves kudos for this; for, with Nigeria’s balance of payments crisis, it is a very good route to responsible growth. A school of thought even opines that GSM is a progressive who, unfortunately, has found himself in the wrong political party.

We recall that, in the 1950s and the 1960s, the economies of Nigeria’s Western Region were, to a considerable extent, export-oriented, leading to the export of commodities to build social and physical infrastructure. Makinde here is trying to recreate a more productive time, and he is on his way to proving so with initiatives such as the Fashola project – an agro-industrial landmark. He, of course, in his endeavour, must confront the painful reality of underperforming Federal agencies such as the Standards Organization of Nigeria (SON), numerous tolls on the highways, as well as the grotesquely underperforming ports. This is why only institutional reforms can make Nigeria a competitive economy.

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Oyebanji too has shown imaginative thinking in his two years in the saddle. A man of wisdom, foresight and simplicity, he has broken the mindset and breathed fresh perspectives into the development process, critically trying to break away from the ‘growth-without-development’ mindset. This break from the past has led to remarkable achievements in good governance, economic development, infrastructure, agriculture and social welfare.

BAO’s leadership has also shown accountability, transparency and responsiveness. It has promoted social justice, equality and human well-being. Most importantly, the governor’s policies and actions have demonstrated a commitment to democratic principles, improvement in the quality of life and a sense of unity among Ekiti people. I will come back to that later!

In Lagos State, Sanwo-Olu has made significant strides in establishing a solid internal security framework, which has made the state arguably the safest in the country. Leveraging this stability, BOS has created an environment conducive to attracting local and foreign direct investments.

Once upon a time, Lagosians were of the view that BOS was wanting in performance because the Big Boss was around and watching from Bourdillion. But now that the Big Boss has landed a bigger job in Abuja, BOS is condemned to delivering the real dividends of democracy to the good people of the ‘Centre of Excellence’. 

There are also flashes of performance here and there. Nevertheless, we must muster the political will to define development, particularly sustainable development, within today’s context. India’s founding post-independence Prime Minister, Pandit Nehru, aptly noted that sustainable development begins with constructing water systems, followed by dispensaries (now known as Primary Health Care centers), then nursery and primary schools, and finally, establishing bank branches to mobilize credit. These fundamental tools drive development, unlike highfalutin vanity projects.

As I’ve argued elsewhere, development isn’t just about “projects”, but about the fundamental effects of proper linkages for sustainability. This raises a crucial question: what comes first – issuing Certificates of Occupancy (C of O) or building flyovers? Frankly, the development process should start with issuing title deeds, as it will empower citizens economically through credit worthiness, which would then attract meaningful projects.

It might seem silly to fuss over a governor’s image or appearance. A governor’s first and major responsibility is serving the people and managing state affairs; it’s about prioritizing citizens’ welfare and well-being. This includes developing policies, managing resources, and delivering public services, not searching for the fleeting spark of power. It is about being accountable to citizens, not strutting the catwalk.

A governor’s duty is not about letting his robe and ring become idols that overshadow the priorities of the office. Instead, it’s about getting plugged into the pulse of the people, attuned to the rhythms of their struggles and aspirations, and harnessing the power of collective wisdom to drive meaningful change.

For Oyebanji, it’s past midterm already. His government clocked midterm last October, which means he has already put in 30 months as the governor of Ekiti State. Now, he should be counting down to the governorship election while others are still battling with midterm and its concomitant issues. Given this timeline, the next election in the state is most likely to take place between June and August next year.

I’ve visited Ekiti State and seen things firsthand. “From the bustling streets of Ado-Ekiti to the quaint towns of Ikere-Ekiti, Ikole-Ekiti and Oke Ako-Ekiti, Oyebanji’s transformative initiatives have inspired optimism among residents, who appreciate his people-first leadership.”

Chief Wole Olanipekun is respected both locally, nationally and internationally, and his views have always counted in Nigeria’s elections, post-1999. Though not a politician, Olanipekun’s life and work are deeply intertwined with the complex social, political and economic landscape of Nigeria. Here’s what the Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and the Asiwaju of Ikereland said about Oyebanji, recently: “The Ekiti scenario is unique, largely due to the governor’s distinctive approach. While any hypothesis about the lack of cohesive opposition is compelling, assuming such an opposition exists in Ekiti, I doubt whether the governor can be upstaged, given his strong connection with the people.”

According to the foremost nationalist, BAO’s “warmth, humility and effective management of the state’s meager resources have endeared him to the populace.” While fearing for “the sustainability of our democracy without a viable opposition” the legal luminary maintained that, “even with a strong opposition, which is highly desirable”, Oyebanji “may still maintain his popularity due to several factors, including his rapport with the people.”

Former Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State believes Oyebanji is unbeatable, citing his personal qualities and widespread support. Fayose predicts he will win in all 177 wards, claiming that his own records show wins in 158 wards. He asserts four former governors, including himself, support Oyebanji’s administration, challenging anyone to dispute this claim.

Perhaps these perspectives come from the elites, but they align with the views of the masses regarding BAO.

• To be concluded.